Trade name: ammonium chloride

 

Latest price (October 12): 622.50 yuan / ton

 

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Key points of analysis: the market of ammonium chloride is stable. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of dry ammonium chloride in China was 622.50 yuan / ton on the 12th, which was the same as the price of the previous day. The start-up of manufacturers continues to maintain a high level, and the inventory of ammonium chloride is still under pressure. According to the business association, the overall operating rate of combined caustic soda is over 70%. In terms of demand, except for the initial start of winter storage in Northeast China, the demand in other regions is still weak. According to the business agency, the overall industry operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is about 50%. The ex factory price of ammonium chloride is basically stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of superior products of agricultural ammonium chloride for Zhonghai Huabang in Jiangsu Province is stable on October 12, 2020, and the price of dry ammonium chloride is 650 yuan / ton; the price of wet ammonium chloride is 550 yuan / ton; on September 30, 2020, the 600000 tons / year ammonium chloride plant of China Salt Kunshan is in normal operation, and it is almost full load.

 

After market forecast, ammonium chloride market is expected to rise tentatively in the short term.

1、 Price trend

 

According to the business agency data monitoring: in September, domestic LNG rose by 9.28%, and then rose after the festival. On October 9, the average price was 2706.67 yuan / ton, up 2.92% compared with that before the festival, 12.47% higher than that at the beginning of September, 14.85% on a month on month basis, and 7.31% lower than the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

Since the second half of the month, due to the relatively stable market situation, the shipment situation of some liquid plants has improved, and the demand has gradually increased. Moreover, after the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the inventory pressure is not great, the shipment situation has been improved, and the bad factors in the off-season demand are added Gradually turned light, the market trading improved, the market continued to rise, near the end of the month is climbing. With the decrease of temperature, the demand for urban fuel and vehicle is better, and some manufacturers have no pressure on inventory and have a good confidence in price.

 

During the holiday, traffic was blocked and LNG shipment was not smooth. After the holiday, the road transportation was restored and the downstream began to actively replenish. The terminal demand increased. In addition, the weather turned cool. The northern cities gradually entered the heating period in winter, which supported the upward trend of LNG price and the active adjustment of liquid price in many places. Moreover, due to the increase of feed gas price, the liquid plant was optimistic and the market gradually changed from The off-season turned into the peak season.

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 9, the average price in Inner Mongolia is around 2750 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; in Shaanxi, the average price is around 2720 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Shanxi, the average price is around 2770 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Xinjiang, the average price is around 3120 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Ningxia, the average price is around 2740 yuan / ton, the price is rising, and the average price in Sichuan is 2660 yuan In the vicinity of yuan / ton, the price is temporarily stable; the price of liquid in many places is gradually rising.

 

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from October 9 to September 1

Inner Mongolia Shitai: 550000 cubic meters / day: 2650 yuan / ton: 2350 yuan / ton: 300 yuan

Star Energy: 1 million cubic meters / day 2770 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 320 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day 2650 yuan / ton 2380 yuan / ton 270 yuan

Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 2700 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 300 yuan

Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day 2810 yuan / ton 2470 yuan / ton 340 yuan / ton

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2580 yuan / ton: 2950 yuan / ton – 370

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2780 yuan / ton 2360 yuan / ton 420 yuan

Qinshui Xinao — 2700 yuan / ton 2600 yuan / ton 100 yuan

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million cubic meters / day 2500 yuan / ton 1600 yuan / ton 900 yuan

Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day 4000 yuan / ton 3000 yuan / ton 1000 yuan

Downstream products also increased to varying degrees:

 

Downstream methanol, Shandong methanol market negotiation price of 1680-1690 yuan / ton, delivered to spot exchange, the transaction was general. The quotation of methanol market in southern Shandong is temporarily stable at around 1800 yuan / t spot exchange. Linyi receives the local price of 1790-1800 yuan / ton and delivers it without tax. The logistics goods are offered at 1730-1750 yuan / ton. On the first day after the festival, futures rose, but most of the downstream watched and the market remained stable temporarily.

 

Liquid ammonia: in recent years, the domestic liquid ammonia market still maintains the range consolidation. It is not ruled out that the trend of various regions or some differentiation after the festival is not ruled out. The market is mainly affected by large plants. In the later stage, there may still be maintenance of units in Shandong. After the festival, the market may need to consume part of the pre holiday stock, and the price may be impacted to a certain extent. In the late autumn, the demand for ammonia in the downstream is expected to be weak and the demand for ammonia may be weak in the late autumn.

 

Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have been consolidated at a high level recently, with good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply. 9 daily offer: 1660-1700 yuan / ton

 

The market price of dichloromethane and methane chloride in Shandong Province is rising. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2650 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform market is about 1850 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is at a high level, and the price of methane chloride is well supported; the overall purchasing demand of downstream market is poor and the support is insufficient.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

LNG analysts from the business club believe that: after the holiday, road transportation is restored to be unobstructed, and the downstream starts to actively replenish goods, and the terminal demand has increased. In addition, the weather turns cool, northern cities gradually enter the winter heating period, which supports the upward trend of LNG prices. It is expected that the domestic LNG prices will rise steadily.

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Product Name: cryolite

 

Latest price (September 30): 5666.67 yuan / ton

 

Commodity analysis: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of cryolite market is stable. The average price of cryolite in Henan is 5666.67 yuan / ton, which is the same as yesterday’s price. At present, the equipment of the enterprise is under normal operation. Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. has started about 70% of the total. Jiaozuo Minli industry and Shandong Botao are both full-scale production. The manufacturers have sufficient inventory and the downstream demand is general. They mainly sell according to the order and hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the market.

 

On the upstream side, the price of fluorite remained stable, with an average price of 2666.67 yuan / ton in the domestic market. The domestic fluorite manufacturers operated normally and the sales situation was general. In the near future, the supply of fluorite in the market was slightly tight, and the fluorite price might rise slightly in the later stage.

 

After market forecast: the supply of cryolite is sufficient, and the downstream demand is slightly flat. It is expected that the cryolite market will be weak and stable in the later stage, and the market demand should be paid more attention to.

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Trade name: br 9000

 

Latest price (September 29): 8900 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of BR 9000 in China was 8900 yuan / ton on the 29th, 0.45% higher than the previous day. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene continued to rise, the cost side was pushed higher, and the ex factory price of petrochemicals was firm. According to the business agency, the current butadiene price was 6288 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of Daqing cis-1-butadiene in Northeast China of PetroChina was 8800 yuan / ton. On the other hand, the production of downstream tires and automobiles increased compared with the previous period, and the demand side was supported. According to the business agency, in August 2020, the domestic output of rubber tire outer tire was 77.104 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; in the first ten days of September 2020, the automobile output of 11 key enterprises reached 729000, with a year-on-year increase of 17%.

 

Aftermarket forecast: raw material price is high, downstream tire demand increases. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will remain high in the future.

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Price trend

 

According to the business agency data monitoring, acetic anhydride market continued to rise this week, acetic anhydride prices rose slightly. As of September 27, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted was 5662.50 yuan / ton, up 1.57% from 5575.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 5.10% lower than that of the same period last year.

 

Acetic acid price trend

 

From the acetic acid price trend chart can be seen, this week acetic acid price temporarily stable, acetic anhydride cost stable, acetic anhydride market positive and negative.

 

Methanol price trend

 

From the methanol price trend chart, we can see that the methanol market fell this week, the methanol price fluctuated and fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the adverse effects of acetic anhydride market increased.

 

Market review and future forecast

 

Baijiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business club, believes that the price of acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, remains stable this week, with the price of methanol falling and the cost of acetic anhydride falling, which is negative for the market of acetic anhydride. On the downstream side, the National Day is around the corner, the stock preparation is basically finished, and the downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing acetic anhydride. The inventory of acetic anhydride enterprises is low, and the operation of acetic anhydride enterprises is insufficient, and the pressure of acetic anhydride rising is great. Generally speaking, the supply of acetic anhydride enterprises is in short supply, and the market of acetic anhydride in the future market is temporarily stable.

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