In June, the trend of domestic liquid ammonia market was full of twists and turns. According to the monitoring of the business agency, since June, for example, the liquid ammonia in Shandong Province has rebounded from the drop and then stabilized. Due to the overhaul of a large plant in Shandong Province at the beginning of the month, a large number of liquid ammonia were shipped in some areas. The manufacturers reduced the price sharply, from 3000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2500 yuan / ton in the first ten days of the month. At the same time, the low-cost source of goods had a crowding out effect on the surrounding areas, implicating the surrounding areas to follow the price reduction, and the prices of the whole northern region dropped significantly. However, with the resumption of production in mid June, the manufacturers consumed a large amount of liquid ammonia, which reduced the pressure on the manufacturers’ inventory and market supply. Therefore, after the middle of June, the price of liquid ammonia rebounded rapidly. At the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia in Northern China was generally 2700-2900 yuan / ton.

In this month, the upstream coal market is not good enough to boost the downstream market. The anthracite lump coal market continues to decline in a weak way. Especially in the middle and late ten days, the output of coal mines in the main production areas increased significantly compared with the previous period, and the price of coal mines in Shanxi Province dropped to 800 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 30-40 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream, in June, the downstream demand of liquid ammonia was still poor, urea also experienced the first rise and then fall. In the middle and late ten days, the market had fallen back to all the previous gains. In addition, monoammonium phosphate was also weak, with a limited increase (0.50%), which is currently in the off-season of fertilizer. Specifically, in the aspect of compound fertilizer, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is generally at 40% this month, and it shows a trend of gradual decline from the middle of the month to the end of the month, and the enterprise operating rate drops to less than 40% at the end of the month. In terms of urea inventory, the enterprise’s inventory increased for two consecutive weeks in the middle and last ten days, and the inventory exceeded 400000 tons in one week at the end of the month. At the end of the month, the inventory of compound fertilizer exceeded 500000 tons, increasing for three consecutive weeks. The pressure of inventory gradually increased, and the market demand became weaker.

In the future, the business community believes that the supply pressure is on the rise, and the operating rate of enterprises is high. Although the favorable agricultural demand in some areas such as northeast China is still continuing, it may continue to weaken in the later stage, and the industrial demand is weak for a long time. It is expected that the liquid ammonia market will remain weak in July, and the price will not be ruled out to fall again.

In June, the domestic light rare earth market prices increased to varying degrees. The prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy continued to rise, the light rare earth market recovered, and the domestic heavy rare earth legitimate price fluctuated. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on June 29 was 346 points, unchanged with yesterday, 65.40% lower than 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 27.68% higher than 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

By the end of the month, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 292000 yuan / ton, up 7.75% from 271000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 368000 yuan / ton, up 8.71% from 338500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the price of neodymium oxide was 302000 yuan / ton, up 7.86% in June; the price of metal neodymium was 382000 yuan / ton, up 7.76% in June There are different degrees of increase.

In recent years, with the positive promotion of the construction of new infrastructure projects across the country, the price of rare earth has continued to rise, with obvious bullish mentality of the traders holding goods in the market, and the merchants are reluctant to sell, so the rising sentiment is strong. In addition, with the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the demand of permanent magnet manufacturers for stock increases, the price of PR and nd rare earth is higher, and the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level 。 In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the import of overseas rare earth ores has dropped sharply, and the waste recycling and monazite raw materials have decreased, resulting in the decline of domestic rare earth smelting output. The domestic economic recovery has led to the recovery of the downstream demand for rare earth, supporting the price of rare earth, and the domestic market price of light rare earth continues to rise.

The price of Dy 2O 3 was 1.92 million yuan / ton by the end of June, which was 1.03% lower than the price of 1.94 million yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.89 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.53% in June. In the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan, the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the annual output is large, which is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth However, it will have a tightening impact on the domestic import supply of medium and heavy rare earth. Once the plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a greater impact on the supply and demand tightening and price rise of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium. In recent years, the price of heavy rare earth has remained at a high level due to the general market in the market. In addition, with the resumption of production and the recovery of terminal new energy vehicle market, domestic terbium series rare earth supply is very tight, and the domestic terbium series rare earth price keeps rising.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. The favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. At the same time, Sino US relations are somewhat loose. The key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, the demand is improving, and the market price of light rare earth is rising.

In recent years, domestic demand for rare earth has increased compared with the previous period, and the supply of medium and heavy rare earth market is still tight. Analysts of business agency predict that the market price of rare earth will continue to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

Taking rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume in domestic market, as an example, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of titanium dioxide has been lowered in this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of titanium dioxide in China was 14166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 13866.67 yuan / ton. The price dropped by 2.12 within the month.

2、 Market analysis

Overall, the titanium dioxide market price in June was weak. Affected by the price reduction in the first half of the month, some prices of titanium dioxide are on the edge of loss, and the orders of distributors and end-users are gradually increasing, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is expected to be reduced. In the second half of the month, with the control of the epidemic situation in various countries, the downstream demand will gradually recover, the trading situation will be improved compared with the previous period, and overseas orders will gradually flow back. Driven by the demand, the price of titanium dioxide will gradually stabilize. At present, the domestic ex factory price of rutile titanium dioxide is 12000-14500 yuan / ton, that of anatase titanium dioxide is 10300-11800 yuan / ton, and that of chlorination titanium dioxide is 15500-20000 yuan / ton.

Ishihara (isk) of Japan announced to increase the price of titanium dioxide by US $200 / T in the Asia Pacific region from July 1, 2020. Panzhihua titanium sea announced that from June 28, 2020, the domestic trade price of titanium dioxide will be increased by 500 yuan / ton, and the foreign trade price will be increased by 80 dollars / ton. It has played a positive role in boosting the domestic price market and has a positive impact on the stability of titanium dioxide market confidence.

In terms of raw materials, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area was stable this month, and the price of some small and medium-sized manufacturers increased under the pressure of cost. At present, the quoted price of 38 grade titanium ore without tax is 760-800 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade small and medium-sized miners, 1170-1230 yuan / ton for 10 grade titanium ore, 1350 yuan / ton for 46 grade 10 ore and 1350-1300 yuan / ton for 47 grade 20 ore. Although the price of titanium dioxide in the downstream continues to be low, due to the increase of raw ore cost, the pressure of middling cost and the shortage of start-up, the price of middling is firm and rigid, and the low price of titanium ore is reduced. The price of imported titanium concentrate is firm, and the quantity of imported titanium concentrate in the market is still decreasing, so the price margin is not large. In the short term, the price of titanium concentrate is mainly firm and rigid.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts from the business club believe: at present, the current market competition is still more intense, the demand for titanium dioxide has increased, foreign trade transactions are gradually restored, and domestic trade channels and end users actively prepare goods. In the short term, the market is low, orders are increasing, demand is improving, manufacturers are willing to support price operation, limited by cost, titanium dioxide continues to decline space is very limited, the actual transaction price is a single discussion.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 28, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5800 yuan / ton, up 133 yuan / ton, or 2.35%, compared with Monday (22), and 350 yuan / ton, or 6.42%, compared with June 15.

N-butanol rose in late June. This week’s rise is still the same

Since the end of June, the domestic market of n-butanol has been rising steadily. This week, the focus of n-butanol transaction continued to rise. At present, the factory’s opening power is about six to seven floors, the spot inventory is low, and the factory’s external offer is generally rising. The confidence of the industry is greatly boosted. The market inquiry atmosphere is good. Downstream users have a high enthusiasm for the low-end offer and purchase in the market, and the supply of low-cost goods is tight. The overall market shipment is relatively smooth. As of the 28th, the ex factory quotation of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. in East China was 5800 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, or 3.57% over the weekend (19th); the ex factory quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol was 5750 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton, or 5.50% over the weekend (19th); the ex factory quotation of Luxi n-butanol was 5850 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton, or 4.46% over the weekend (19th). At present, according to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol is 5800 yuan / ton, which is 133 yuan / ton higher than that of Monday (22nd), 2.35% higher in the week; 350 yuan / ton higher than that of June 15th, 6.42% higher in the half month.

The market price of n-butanol in some regions of China this week is attached (data for reference only unit: yuan / ton)

Product name region 6 / 22 6 / 28 up and down

N-butanol East China 5800-5950 5950-6050 + 150 / + 100

South China 5900-6000 6000-6100 + 100 / + 100

North China 5600-5700 5700-5850 + 100 / + 150

On the upstream side, from the beginning of this week, the price of propylene market in Shandong fell, and the cost support for n-butanol was limited. On the 22nd and 23rd, the market price of propylene was continuously reduced by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market price is between 6650 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6750 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not large, but the delivery situation is relatively cold.

In terms of downstream, at present, the market price of butyl acrylate in South China is 7550-7650 yuan / ton of accessories. The weak consolidation operation is mainly near the holiday market, while the downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and the inquiry and purchase and delivery before the holiday are not good. At present, there is a certain inventory pressure in the factory, the transaction focus is low, and the operators purchase on demand.

According to analysts of n-butanol, the focus of negotiation in the market of n-butanol is up, the inventory in the market is low, and the market supply and demand cycle is good. It is heard that some n-butanol plants in Shandong and Northeast China are planned to be overhauled in July, and supply is expected to continue to shrink, so it is expected that the focus of domestic n-butanol market negotiation will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business association, the average price of domestic rubber grade and high-quality silica as of June 24 was 4566.67 yuan / ton. This week, domestic silica kept stable operation, with little price change and just need to purchase.

The domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black operates stably, with the main quotation range of 4000-5000 yuan / ton. The downstream demand recovers slowly and the price does not fluctuate significantly. White carbon black is divided into precipitation method and gas-phase method. Their application fields and effects are also different. The production process of precipitation method white carbon black is simple, energy consumption is low and investment is small, but the environmental requirements are very high, and the product activity is not high Particle is not easy to control, gas phase process product purity is high, equipment requirements are high, production capacity is low, technology is complex, so the price of fumed silica is high and can not be widely used. At present, precipitated silica is mainly used in rubber products, automobile tires, etc., which has the characteristics of heat resistance and flame resistance. At present, about 70% of the silica in the world is used in the rubber industry.

The upstream hydrochloric acid market is temporarily stable, with general purchasing enthusiasm and tight supply. On June 23, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 81.58, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.42% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-12), and up 353.73% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: cycle 2011-09-01 to now).

On June 23, the chemical industry index was 672, down 2 points from yesterday, 33.86% from 1016 (2012-03-13), and 12.37% from 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the white carbon black analyst of the business association, the market of white carbon black will be stable in the short term, and the price will not change significantly. (the above prices are provided by the major manufacturers of silica all over the country and analyzed by the business silica analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation.)