On April 19, in response to a reporter’s question, Meng Wei, spokesman of the national development and Reform Commission, said that on the whole, this is the result of multiple factors such as the gradual recovery of the global economy, the short-term adjustment of the relationship between supply and demand, abundant liquidity and investment speculation, which has the characteristics of repair and stage. At the same time, we also see that the recovery of the world economy is still unstable, and there is no overall and trend change in the supply and demand of bulk commodities, so the price does not have the basis for long-term rise.

According to the data monitored by the business society (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), the mainstream average price of PVC in China on April 25 was 8962.5 yuan / ton, up 3.17% from the beginning of the month and 64.83% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Since the Spring Festival in 2021, driven by the bull market of chemical bulk commodities, most of the bulk commodity prices have risen, and the domestic PVC market has also shown a rapid rise mode. Since January, it has increased by about 22% in the past five months, with a year-on-year increase of about 65%. In the recent downward trend of PE, PP and other plastic products, it is particularly eye-catching, and it can be said that PVC is now at a historical high, And led to the rise of the industrial chain market.

In April, when the peak season comes, PVC continues to rise, with an increase of about 3% in the month, and the market is good. In April, PVC was boosted by the demand in the peak season, the device maintenance, the external market was good, the market was strong, the raw material was high and so on. As a result, the price of PVC fluctuated higher, and the overall market was up and down, which was more volatile. Since the return of the Qingming Festival, PVC market opened up the rising mode, the center of gravity moved up. Around the middle of the year, the market was weak, and the transaction of high price PVC was blocked, and the downstream transmission was not smooth, resulting in a slight price correction. After a short rest for a few days, PVC continued to rise in the second half of the month, and repeatedly rose above 9000 yuan, returning to a high level. Near the May Day holiday, there are many pre festival goods in the downstream, which have fairly good support. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, and the inventory of manufacturers is not under pressure. Therefore, PVC is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and mainly operates at a high level.

Driven by the continuous rise of PVC, the price of PVC middle and downstream industry chain has also been increased to varying degrees to ease the cost pressure. However, the rising speed of raw materials is faster than the increase of profits of downstream enterprises. In the first quarter, some enterprises lost money in production, so they have strong resistance, only maintain the purchase of just need, and lack of inquiry enthusiasm. In April, driven by infrastructure construction, the rigid demand for glass, cement and other products, including PVC, increased, and the building materials industry entered the peak consumption season. The starting load of PVC downstream profiles, pipes, membrane materials and other products enterprises gradually increased, new orders increased, and the social inventory was lower than that of the same period last year, indicating that the demand was still good, and the upward support for PVC prices was gradually strengthened.

region varieties technology April 25 remarks

East China PVC Calcium carbide process 9080-9150 yuan / ton Delivery

south China PVC Calcium carbide process 9000-9150 yuan / ton Delivery

North China PVC Calcium carbide process 8960-9050 yuan / ton To

southwest PVC Calcium carbide process 8900-9000 yuan / ton To

In terms of spot price, the main quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 8700-9100. In Hangzhou area, the pvc5 calcium carbide interval is 9000-9200 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou area is 9050-9150 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 9000-9150 yuan / ton; Prices have risen in various markets.

Futures rose strongly to above 9000 yuan, driving the trend of spot price. On April 25, the market was closed. On April 23, v2109 contract opened at 8925 with the highest price of 9050 and the lowest price of 8855, closing at 9040, up 2.84%. The turnover was 445000, the position was 457600, and the position was increased by 46700.

International crude oil. On April 23, international oil prices rebounded. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was 61.83 US dollars / barrel, up 0.40 US dollars or 0.65%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was at US $66.11/barrel, up US $0.71 or 1.1%, mainly due to the favorable economic data of the United States and Europe, and the prospect of economic recovery. However, the concerns caused by the surge of new cases in India and Japan Limited the rise of oil prices.

Ethylene, April 23, European ethylene market quotation, FD northwest Europe quotation 1350-1363 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quotation 1257-1268 US dollars / ton, up 8 US dollars / ton, April 23, American ethylene market quotation, FD American Gulf quotation 1112-1124 US dollars / ton, recent American ethylene market quotation is stable, demand is poor, April 23, Asian ethylene market quotation, CFR Northeast Asia offers us $1102-1110 / T, CFR Southeast Asia offers us $1047-1055 / T, and the price is mainly stable. Affected by the price rise of upstream crude oil, the ethylene market may mainly rise in the future.

On April 23, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose, with the reference price of 4183.33 yuan / ton, up 2.87% compared with that at the beginning of the week. The price of raw material orchid charcoal was low and the cost of calcium carbide was generally supported. PVC market in the lower reaches of the recent high consolidation, maintenance completed, downstream customers on calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm in general. Calcium carbide rose slightly in the future/ p>

3、 Future forecast

According to PVC analysts of business news agency, PVC market continued to rise in April, demand expectation was better in peak season, futures prices rose strongly, driving the trend of spot. In addition, there were many stock preparation operations in the downstream before holidays, manufacturers had no pressure on inventory, and raw material calcium carbide prices continued to rise. Therefore, PVC is easy to rise in the short term, but difficult to fall. High level operation is the main reason. In the medium and long term, we should also pay attention to macro news and demand guidance, Beware of callbacks.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market continued to decline during the week (4.19-4.23). The price was 12660 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 12360 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an overall decline of 2.37%.

This week (4.19-4.23), the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market declined, and the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of individual manufacturers decreased. According to the monitoring of business society, as of April 23, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast sales company was 12500 yuan / ton; The price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northwest sales company was reduced by 300 yuan / ton: the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in Dushanzi was increased by 12250 yuan / ton, and the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in Northwest warehouse was increased.

The supply side is mainly stable. According to the business news agency, the Shunding units in Maoming and Yangzi continued to shut down. The 150000 T / a Shunding units in Zhongshan and Yanshan started to shut down for about 40 days in early April, and the units in Jinzhou and Dushanzi were in normal operation.

Raw material prices fell slightly, and the cost side was still relatively short. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of April 23, the price of butadiene was 6637 yuan / ton, down 0.88% from 6696 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Since the end of February, the price of natural rubber has been falling all the way. Considering the cost, the downstream tire enterprises purchase more from natural rubber, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is under pressure. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of April 23, the domestic natural rubber price was 13437 yuan / ton, 17.50% lower than the highest point of 16287 yuan / ton at the end of February, and 5.39% higher than the lowest point of 12750 yuan / ton since April.

Future forecast: business community analysts believe that the price of natural rubber and butadiene is lower and has a strong negative effect on cis-1,4-polybutadiene, but the price of natural rubber rebounds this week. If natural rubber stabilizes in the later stage, it is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will stop falling and stabilize in the short term; If the price of natural rubber rebounds weakly, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will continue to be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block data list, the average price of domestic hips on April 22 was 12883.33 yuan / ton, up 0.65% from the previous day and 0.84% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

High impact polystyrene, also known as hips, is a thermoplastic material made of elastomer modified polystyrene. The two-phase system composed of rubber phase and continuous polystyrene phase has developed into an important polymer commodity in the world. Because of its convenience and low cost, hips is widely used in many appliances and industries.

On April 22, the market of hips continued to rise, with a one-day rise rate of 0.65%, not much. Recently, the raw material styrene continued to rise, with a rise rate of nearly 10% in the month. The cost support gradually increased. In addition, some PS plants such as Jiangsu saibaolong and CITIC Guoan shut down and reduced production, and the supply in the yard was slightly tightened, which was a good signal for the upward trend of hips. However, the market was weak recently, which depressed the market sentiment, and the demand side followed up generally, so the upward trend was not large. As of the 22nd, The reference price of Ningbo Taihua 8250 was 12800 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous day, Guangzhou Petrochemical 660 was 13100 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous day, and Zhanjiang Zhongmei 990 was 12750 yuan / ton, which was 250 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous day.

product manufactor Brand Price (yuan / ton)

HIPS Ningbo Taihua eight thousand two hundred and fifty twelve thousand and eight hundred

HIPS Guangzhou Petrochemical six hundred and sixty thirteen thousand and one hundred

HIPS Zhanjiang Zhongmei nine hundred and ninety twelve thousand seven hundred and fifty

International crude oil market: on April 21, international oil prices continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $61.35/barrel, down by US $1.32 or 2.1%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was at US $65.32/barrel, down US $1.25 or 1.9%. The market was worried that the surge of new crown infection in India would hurt energy demand, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on Wednesday showed that US crude oil stocks rose unexpectedly last week.

In terms of raw materials, the reference price of styrene on April 21 was 9600.00, up 9.51% compared with that on April 1 (8766.67). The cost support of styrene was strong, the inventory was low, and the spot was tight, which pushed up the price. However, with the recovery of styrene price, the downstream acceptance of styrene declined, some markets began to conflict, the transaction volume decreased, and the terminal demand continued to be weak. Plant restart and new production capacity are expected to suppress styrene rising space.

3、 Future forecast

According to the business association, the rising prices of raw materials and the favorable maintenance of devices have helped the hips market to rise steadily. However, the demand side is generally followed up, and the receiving capacity needs to be improved. It is expected that the market will continue to rise slightly in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic POM market continued to be active in the middle and late April, and the spot prices of various brands increased. As of April 21, the average offer price of the POM injection molding sample enterprises in the business community was about 15033.33 yuan / ton, up 2.50% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

POM upstream formaldehyde, the beginning of this month, the domestic formaldehyde market continued to be weak. At the beginning of this month, the restart of some formaldehyde plants caused the lower reaches to conflict with high price sources, and the market transaction was blocked. Formaldehyde market showed a broad overall trend. The trading atmosphere of raw material methanol is general, the traders operate cautiously, and the support for formaldehyde is limited. At present, on-site purchase and sales have stabilized, and prices have returned to horizontal operation.

There is a callback in the upstream price position, and POM cost side support is general in the middle of the month. The shortage of domestic POM supply has increased, and enterprises are willing to report more. The reference price of Tianye Chemical M90 is about 14500 yuan / ton, which is for negotiation. Yuntianhua M90 ex factory reference price is about 16600 yuan / ton, firm offer for negotiation. The POM unit of Shenhua Ningmei coal works normally. The reference price of mc90 is about 14000 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. Compared with the previous period, there were certain increases. In the current maintenance season, enterprises are gradually reducing the burden, the supply is expected to be tight, and traders are reluctant to sell. The downstream operation is biased to just need to take the goods, and the price focus of POM continues to move up without hoarding.

Future forecast

Analysts of business news agency think: in late April, the domestic POM market atmosphere is still strong. Although formaldehyde trend is not good, POM cost support is weakened. However, there is a tight supply of goods on the floor, and the current supply side is favorable and dominates the market. Due to the high price of POM, the downstream resistance gradually accumulated. At present, under the pressure of high cost, the profit space of downstream enterprises is limited, which affects the consumption of POM. It is expected that the POM market will operate under the favorable situation of tight supply in the near future, and there may still be a slight increase.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of zinc fluctuated and adjusted in April, and the market of zinc fluctuated and rose slowly. As of April 20, the average price of zinc was 21926.67 yuan / ton, up 0.89% from 21733.33 yuan / ton on April 1.

Main market of domestic zinc ingot

According to the data in the statistical table, the low level of social inventory of zinc ingots was adjusted in January, the social inventory of zinc city increased sharply in February, the social inventory of zinc city decreased slowly in March and April, the zinc city continued to de inventory, the inventory of zinc city decreased, the supply of zinc city decreased, and the rising power of zinc city in the future increased.

Zinc ingot inventory in Bonded Zone

Statistics from the statistical table show that the high level of zinc ingot bonded zone inventory fell, zinc ingot supply was sufficient and decreased slightly. In the future, zinc ingot has limited downward pressure and insufficient upward momentum.

Inventory of Shanghai Futures Market

It can be seen from the statistical table that the inventory of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market rose first and then fell in March, and increased slowly in April. Zinc supply is sufficient in the future, but the rise is slowing down.

Port inventory of zinc concentrate

According to the data in the statistical table, the port inventory of zinc concentrate is maintained at about 100000-150000 tons. Affected by the epidemic situation, the port inventory of zinc concentrate has remained at a high level in 20 years, and the port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased significantly in 21 years, with a trend of breaking through 100000 tons. Zinc concentrate destocking speed up, zinc concentrate import enterprise import enthusiasm reduced, domestic zinc market supply or reduced.

Zinc processing fee

As of April, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee is about 3700-4000 yuan / ton, which is the lowest level since September 18, and is far lower than the 6500 yuan / ton in 20 years. The lower processing fee has forced the zinc smelters to reduce their enthusiasm to start operation, the output of zinc market has decreased, and the zinc market is short of supply or reversely stimulated the increase of zinc concentrate processing fee. Zinc ingot supply may increase in the future.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business society, believes that: in the near future, the de inventory of zinc market has accelerated, the social inventory of the main market of zinc City, the inventory of zinc ingot bonded zone, and the inventory of zinc concentrate port have decreased to varying degrees, the supply of zinc city has decreased, and the processing fee of zinc concentrate is low, the production enthusiasm of zinc concentrate smelting enterprises is not high, the import number of zinc concentrate is expected to decline, and the supply of zinc city is expected to decrease With the coming of peak season, the demand of zinc market will rise and the supply of zinc market will decrease, which is bound to stimulate the rise of zinc market. It is expected that the price of zinc will fluctuate in the future.