1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on January 31, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 7175 yuan / ton, down 1.98% compared with 7320 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 5.13% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

In January, the PVC market was depressed first and then rose, with a watershed in the middle of the month and a decrease of about 2% in the whole month. The price fluctuated little. In January, the off-season demand is expected to weaken, especially the poor transportation in some parts of the north, as well as the early shutdown of some downstream enterprises, resulting in the decline of the operating rate and the weakening of the support for the demand for PVC. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide has fallen, the number of maintenance enterprises is small, the market supply is sufficient, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The enterprises are looking for good prices and good delivery, with a decrease of 4.88% in the first half of the month. The turning point in the second half of the month was mainly due to the rebound of futures prices, the repeated public health incidents in some areas, the poor transportation in some areas, the limited arrival resources, and the increase in exports. There was a certain reserve demand in the downstream years ago, which led to the decline of inventory and the rise of PVC prices. Near the end of the month, the market recovered calm and the trend was relatively strong.

 

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2020, the domestic PVC production was 1.914 million tons, up 6.0% compared with the same period last year; in 2020, the cumulative domestic PVC production was 20.74 million tons, up 3.3% compared with the same period last year

 

In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 6900-7400 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is around 7300-7400 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hebei is 7070-7130 yuan / ton, the range of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 7270-7400 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 7300-7450 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of PVC common calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 7330-7550 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of futures, the main PVC futures contract V 2105 on the first day reduced its position by a large amount, and the futures price rose and fell, closing at 7280 yuan on the same day, which was – 135 yuan compared with the previous trading day; the trading volume was 364483, and the position was 352155, – 23490; the basis was 70.

 

Regional varieties: February 2, 2007

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide process: 7300-7450 yuan / ton

Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 7330-7550 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process: 7070-7130 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide process: RMB 7270-7400 / T

 

Upstream crude oil. On February 1, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $53.55/barrel, up US $1.35. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price at 56.35 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 1.31 U.S. dollars. WTI and Brent rose by more than 2% on Monday, mainly due to the decline of US crude oil stocks and the rise of fuel demand caused by snowstorms in the northeast of the United States, which helped oil prices.

 

In January, the external market of ethylene showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At present, crude oil: US crude oil inventory is declining, but the market’s continued concern about the epidemic has limited oil demand, international oil prices fluctuate slightly, and cost support is general. Therefore, data analysts from business news agency predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall in the next few days.

 

In January, the price of calcium carbide dropped sharply, reaching 3083.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 20.74% from 3890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 9.86% year on year. On February 2, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, the price of raw material blue carbon was high, and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. Downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide is normal, the output of calcium carbide rises, and the market supply exceeds the demand. It is expected that calcium carbide will fluctuate slightly in the future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Business community PVC analysts believe that in January, PVC first suppressed and then rose, and rebounded in the second half of the month. However, in the off-season of demand, the rise is difficult to last. At present, the market is calm, the year is approaching, the downstream industry is closed for holidays, the support of demand side continues to decline, the trading atmosphere turns light, and the market negotiation price is obviously stable, but the price of PVC is expected to be stable in the short term, and there is a risk of downward trend in the future.

Thiourea

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 31, the reference ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 13266 yuan / ton, which was 33 yuan / ton lower than that on January 25 (reference price was 13300 yuan / ton); compared with that on January 1 (reference price was 12633 yuan / ton), the average price was 1933 yuan / ton higher, or 17.06%.

 

Since the beginning of January, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market has been steadily rising under the dual support of rising raw materials and low inventory. It has been running at a high level all the way to the end of January. Towards the end of the month, the propylene glycol market has been shaken and adjusted. The price of propylene oxide is weak and stable, and the support for the cost of propylene glycol is weakened. On the 27th and 28th of the end of the month, the transaction price of propylene glycol market is loose, and it is heard that the yield is 20% As of January 31, the overall market of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was still at a high level, and the reference transaction price was around 13000-14000 yuan / ton.

 

On the supply side, at present, the overall start-up of propylene glycol production enterprises is low, with an operating rate of about 40%. Previously, the propylene glycol equipment maintenance of Shandong large factories was delayed, and the spot supply of secondary cargo holders was short. Although the overall inventory was low, the factory continued to actively increase orders, and began to make small profits at the end of January. The actual transaction price was loose.

 

In terms of demand, downstream industries continue to purchase just as they need to, while affected by transportation, the new single increment is general. At present, propylene glycol is mainly operated at a high level.

 

In terms of raw materials, at the end of January, there was no pressure on the delivery of propylene oxide in the factory as a whole, but the feedback from the downstream was general, the market was temporarily stable, and there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, the inventory pressure of the factory was not large, and the market support mentality remained. The main factories kept their offer stable, but the downstream resisted high prices, and the price depression was common. The supply and demand sides played games, and the market continued to sort out and wait-and-see The average quotation price of propane enterprises was 17133.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day and the beginning of the week, and decreased by 9.35% compared with January 1 (18900.00).

 

Rigid demand oriented, short-term weak Operation Oriented

 

At present, with the gradual end of pre festival goods preparation and the stoppage of logistics in many regions, the demand for propylene glycol is weak and just needs to be supported. Therefore, it is expected that the price adjustment of domestic propylene glycol market will be limited in the short term and the weak operation will be dominant.

Thiourea

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business club’s block list, the overall price trend of cryolite market in January was stable. The average market price at the end of the month was 5975 yuan / ton, with an increase of 3.02% compared with 5800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1.27% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This month, the market of cryolite in Henan Province rose slightly. The orders of enterprises were OK. Most of them were sold according to orders. The downstream demand was general. The holiday was approaching. Replenishment was mainly on demand, and the market trading atmosphere was cold. In terms of devices, the enterprises start up normally and the market inventory is sufficient. At present, the annual output of cryolite in Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10000 tons, and the devices start up normally. At present, the cryolite in Jiaozuo mingmingminli Industrial Co., Ltd. is in full load production, and the operations are normal. The annual output of cryolite in Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 30000 tons / year, and about 70% of the devices start up at present. As of the 29th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan Province was 5000-6500 yuan / ton, while that in Shandong Province was 5500-6800 yuan / ton. The manufacturers had a single negotiation, and the actual transaction price was flexible, mainly through negotiation.

 

On the upstream side, the price trend of domestic fluorite market continued to rise, but the overall increase was small. The average price of fluorite at the end of the month was 2741.11 yuan / ton, up 0.82% from the beginning of the month. Due to the weather, some fluorite plants were shut down, the fluorite supply in the plant was a little tight, the market price rose slightly, and the downstream was favorable to support the later stage or maintain a high level.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

At present, the market of cryolite is in sufficient stock, the situation of manufacturers’ shipment is general, the demand of downstream is generally not significantly improved, the holiday is approaching, the festival atmosphere is strong, the market trading is weak, and the short-term cryolite market is temporarily stable.

Thiourea

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the TDI market price rose this week. The average price of the East China market at the weekend was 12766.67 yuan / ton, up 1.86% compared with 12533.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 9.12% compared with the same period last year.

 

This week, the domestic TDI market was relatively strong. At the beginning of the week, the atmosphere in the market was relatively quiet, and the offer of the industry was temporarily stable. The dealers continued to give priority to last week’s offer. In the later stage, the supplier’s repair news was fermenting. The offer of the industry was inclined to the high end, and the price trend was upward. As of the 29th, the reference price of TDI domestic goods in East China market was 12700-12800 yuan / ton, and the reference price of Shanghai goods was 13000-13200 yuan / ton.

 

The price of toluene continued to rise, with strong market atmosphere. The focus of negotiation was pushed up, with an increase of 1.81% in the week. As of the 29th, the domestic average price was 4225 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of toluene is expected to tighten, and the price support willingness of commodity holders is strong, with a good bullish attitude in the future.

 

At present, the domestic supplier’s equipment starts normally, the manufacturer’s export demand is good, the mentality of the industry is acceptable, the offer is running at a high level, and the intention to ship at a low price is not high. According to foreign news, BASF’s 300000 t / a TDI unit in Ludwigshafen, Germany is scheduled to enter the maintenance period from March to April, which is further beneficial to domestic exports. Under the performance of supply and demand, TDI may maintain a high level operation in the later stage. Polyether market continued to decline, the downstream wait-and-see attitude was strong, the demand performance was general, the industry purchased on demand, the market transaction was weak, the atmosphere of goods preparation before the festival was cold, and the future market was weak.

 

According to TDI data analyst of business society, at present, domestic TDI market offer is relatively high, and the mentality of the industry is acceptable. In addition, foreign equipment maintenance news is favorable, and the export demand side is good. It is expected that the TDI market will be relatively strong in the later period, and attention will be paid to the change of supplier information.

Thiourea

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on January 28 was 4183.33 yuan / ton, up 3.98% from the previous day, 8.19% from the beginning of the week, and 35.38% from the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

This week, the domestic liquefied natural gas stopped falling and rose, but the rise was much milder than the previous peak stage, with a daily rise of about 1% – 4%. Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and other places actively increased. The upsurge of liquid price in this round is mainly due to the cold air boost, the rain and snow weather in the northern region, the urban fuel demand has picked up, coupled with the drop of high liquid price, the increase of downstream acceptance, the demand has also increased to a certain extent, the liquid factory has no pressure to ship, and the price has been pushed up. Moreover, the price of liquid dropped sharply in the early stage, some enterprises hung upside down, and profits dropped sharply. This time, we are willing to take advantage of the situation to push up. With the coming of the new year, downstream users have holidays one after another, the purchasing enthusiasm has declined, the demand side has continued to weaken, the liquid price in the future has continued to rise, the lack of action, and there is a downward risk.

 

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on January 28 was 4183.33 yuan / ton, up 3.98% from the previous day, 8.19% from the beginning of the week, and 35.38% from the same period last year. Inner Mongolia rose 150-400 yuan / ton, Shaanxi rose 50-250 yuan / ton, Shanxi rose 150-200 yuan / ton, Ningxia rose 200-250 yuan / ton, Henan rose 350-400 yuan / ton. The price of liquid rose positively.

 

Regional specifications rose and fell from January 28 to January 25

Inner Mongolia LNG 3800-4450 3650-4050 150-400

Shaanxi LNG 4150-4350 3700-4100 50-250

Shanxi LNG 4100-4400 3850-4250 150-200

Ningxia ﹣ LNG ﹣ 4000-4350 ﹣ 3800-4100 ﹣ 200-250

Henan LNG 4600-4850 4200-4500350-400

For downstream methanol, the factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong Province was lowered on January 28. The price of methanol in the south of Shandong Province is about 2220-2230 yuan / ton in cash. Linyi receives local goods and sends them to cash around 2210-2220 yuan / ton. There is no quotation for logistics goods, and the downstream receiving is limited. The operators wait and see, and the market atmosphere is general. Shandong methanol Lubei market transaction price is stable at 2150-2180 yuan / ton to cash. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.

 

Urea, January 28, Shandong urea market temporarily stable. The downstream demand is tightening as a whole. In agriculture, the price of urea is relatively high and the agricultural procurement is cautious. In industry, due to the impact of air pollution control in some areas, plate enterprises shut down, and compound fertilizer enterprises started with general load, so the demand for proper follow-up. On the supply side, the early maintenance units started in succession, and the output increased steadily. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly and fall mainly.

 

Dichloromethane, January 28, Shandong area methane chloride market down. The market price of methane chloride in Shandong has been reduced. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 3320-3330 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of trichloromethane market is 2440-2500 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream market of dichloromethane has a high degree of completion of goods preparation, and the demand for dichloromethane is weak. In addition, the price of raw materials in the upstream is declining, which leads to a sharp decline in the price of dichloromethane Dichloromethane market is weak.

 

In January, the external market price of ethylene rose first and then fell. On January 1, the price was US $1024.00/ton, while on January 28, the average price of ethylene was US $1012.00/ton, down 1.17%, up 20.01% year on year. At present, crude oil: US crude oil inventory is declining, but the market’s continued concern about the epidemic has limited oil demand, international oil prices fluctuate slightly, and cost support is general. Therefore, data analysts from business news agency predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall in the next few days.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency think: cold air boost, urban fuel demand rebounds, liquid plant inventory is controllable, shipping pressure is not big, positive price support, liquid price is still expected to rise in the short term, but the year is coming, downstream users have shut down for holidays, purchasing enthusiasm is declining, demand side continues to weaken, coupled with the recent supply side is relatively stable, liquid price continues to rise in the future Lack of motivation and downside risk.

Thiourea