On March 16, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply, falling below $30 per barrel again, with the main contract at 28.70 yuan / barrel, down $3.03 (- 9.55%). Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract at $31.69/barrel, down $3.75 (- 10.58%). The deterioration of the global epidemic in recent days has intensified people’s blockade measures against the government to curb the spread of the epidemic, which may lead to a sharp contraction of economic activities, and then aggravate the general concerns of market people about the global economic recession. On Monday, Saudi Arabia reiterated its production increase plan with a clear attitude, which made the market worse.

On the macro level, on Monday, the global stock market was in a state of mourning. Following the sharp fall of the Asian and European stock markets, the US stock market opened sharply lower. In a few minutes, the S & P 500 index fell below 7%, triggering the third circuit breaker this month. After the resumption of trading, the US stock market fell further rapidly. The decline of the three major stock indexes was once more than 10%, and the Dow index fell more than 12%. The increased risk of the US economic recession has triggered a general bearish atmosphere in the market. Some market participants predict that the US economy will grow by 0.4% in 2020, lower than the previous growth estimate of 1.2%. The trampling down of risk assets will naturally bear the brunt of the crude oil market.

At present, the main negative crude oil factor in the market is still the spread and deterioration of the epidemic. Up to now, the coronavirus epidemic has caused at least 174000 people to be infected, about 6700 people died, and the global economy has fallen into a depression. At present, especially in Europe and the United States, the epidemic situation has expanded. More and more countries have taken blockade measures, which has severely hit the fields of aviation, transportation, etc., and the demand for crude oil is expected to drop significantly Wen, especially now, has caused oil prices to fall by 50% since the beginning of the year. As the epidemic has disrupted business activities, travel and daily life, many forecasting agencies have also lowered their forecasts for crude oil demand, and the current forecast indicators have been continuously restored.

At present, the risk of the supply side is also further negative for oil prices. Saudi Arabia National Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) reiterated on Monday that it plans to increase production to a record level to occupy a larger share of the global oil market. Saudi Arabia has a clear attitude to increase production. Moreover, according to relevant consumption, the technical meeting of OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries planned to be held in Vienna on Wednesday has been cancelled. Saudi Arabia and Russia has not achieved further effective communication, which may lead to a huge increase in supply of Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries, bringing a huge surplus to the global crude oil market. As a result, the pace of crude oil downward is intensified.

According to the business club, at present, the crude oil market is suffering from bad news, and both the supply side and the demand side tend to suffer from bad oil prices. The risk of global financial market is increasing, and the price of risk assets is declining. At present, many countries around the world have launched monetary easing policies, especially the interest rate of the Federal Reserve has dropped to a super level of 0-0.25, and there is no room for further easing in the later stage, which has defeated market confidence As the marginal benefit decreases, the role of interest rate reduction becomes smaller and smaller; moreover, due to the resonance effect of Saudi Arabia’s production increase and the expected decline in demand brought by the epidemic, it is expected that the medium and short-term crude oil will still hover at a low level, which does not exclude the possibility of further exploration.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market fell sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 1962 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 1842 yuan / ton, down 6.11% in the week, 8.10% on month, 27.52% on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: affected by the collapse of international crude oil futures, the main methanol contract ma2005 of zhengshangsuo fell and stopped, and the methanol spot price in East China kept linkage with it, and the market in East China, South China and other places fell sharply. In the first half of the week, methanol in the mainland was mostly on the sidelines. With the port falling sharply, the price in the mainland was also loose, and Shandong, North China, central China and other places were in decline. Enterprises in the main production areas had limited offers, and more contracts were executed.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market fell in shock. Local enterprises started to work one after another, and the overall market supply increased. However, due to the lower fluctuation of upstream methanol market, the lower production cost of formaldehyde enterprises, and the weak follow-up of downstream market demand, the formaldehyde Market in many places gradually declined, and the overall transaction was relatively common.

Acetic acid: after the industry started to improve, the spot supply in the domestic acetic acid market continued to increase, the stock pressure of enterprises in Shandong and Henan gradually increased, and the passive price adjustment competition for shipment dominated, driving the transaction in the East China market to decline one after another. In the North China market, the main downstream chloroacetic acid starts on a low level, and the substantial market demand is weak. Under the situation that some peripheral low-cost goods sources impact the North China market, the local suppliers have a passive phase decline, and this week’s decline is relatively small.

Dimethyl ether: this week, the trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak, and the price continued to decline. Most of the mainstream enterprises in the main production areas of Henan province carry out the minimum guarantee policy, and their centers announce the settlement price of 2770 yuan / ton of spot exchange to leave the factory. There is preferential space for actual transactions. Due to the impact of international health events, the price of crude oil has been greatly reduced, which has affected the price of liquefied gas. The continuous decline of price has led to a poor attitude of trade procurement, indirectly affecting the sales of dimethyl ether.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club view: on the positive side, with the warmer weather, the demand for traditional downstream formaldehyde and other products has improved; at present, the price of coal to methanol in the north is near the cost line, with some losses; this week, the price of methanol fell too fast, and the number of customers with market intention to copy the bottom has increased. On the negative side, overseas public security emergencies have raised market concerns. The trend of international crude oil, finance and stock market is weak, and market participants are worried about it. At present, the domestic methanol supply is on the increase, with the operating rate rising to over 72%. The port inventory is on the rise again. After Iran’s gas limit is eased, the methanol production is increased, and it is expected to arrive in China in late March. At present, the external information is short, which is unfavorable to the future trend, thus affecting the methanol trend of the port; in addition, with the increase of external market arrival, the methanol port inventory shows an increasing trend, and the methanol storage capacity is tense. The methanol supply and demand pressure in the mainland, the methanol analyst of the business association predicted that the methanol market in some regions would mainly supplement the decline trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of March 3, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several mainstream areas monitored by the data was 18066 yuan / ton, down 933 yuan / ton or 4.91% compared with the beginning of March.

2、 Market analysis

Product: since the beginning of March, the overall weakness of organosilicon DMC market has been running low. With the slowdown of the epidemic, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has been steadily rising, and the terminal resumption has been carried out recently. However, downstream enterprises have been cautious in the preparation of upstream raw materials. Although the operating rate of monomer factories has been controlled all the time, the current operating rate is about 60%, but since last week, the quotations of some manufacturers have been reduced by 300-1000 yuan / ton No, the market price stabilization mentality has basically collapsed, and manufacturers have begun to show a low price bidding mode. This week, the quotation of organosilicon DMC is generally reduced by about 500 yuan / ton again. At present, the mainstream quotation of DMC is around 17800-18500 yuan / ton, and the lowest quotation has reached 17000 yuan / ton (net water spot exchange). In order to stimulate the shipment, the actual transactions have been explored one after another, and the actual transactions of some large households yield more profits. However, the downstream stock up is not very active, most of them are cautious to wait and see, and the terminal market has not been fully opened. At present, the overall operating rate of single plant has declined again. During the shutdown of Tangshan Sanyou, Hubei Xingfa and Shandong Jinling units, it is understood that Zhejiang Hesheng will also stop for maintenance this weekend, and the operating rate of most other single plants is about 60%.

Industry chain: at present, the terminal demand has not been fully released, the demand for silicone oil and 107 rubber products is still low, the market has not fully recovered, and it is unable to stimulate the expansion of 107 rubber trading volume in a short term. At present, the quotation of 107 rubber market in China has been reduced sporadically, the resumption of terminal work is slow, and the market as a whole is weak. The quotation of raw rubber market is stable and slightly reduced. At present, the market just needs to purchase. At present, the silicone oil market maintains stable operation. With the orderly recovery of logistics, the market gradually recovers. Under the weakening of cost support, the downstream risk averse procurement is on demand.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of the business club, it is expected that in the near future, in order to stimulate the delivery of goods, the quotation adjustment may be more frequent, and the downstream manufacturers may also be ready to stock up at any time while waiting. The market also needs to pay more attention to the downstream demand and the adjustment of the manufacturers’ commencement.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic toluene market price fell sharply this week, as of Friday, 5.04% lower than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: due to the collapse of OPEC + production reduction agreement between OPEC and Russia, coupled with the continuous spread of overseas epidemics, and the fear of shrinking demand for crude oil, the international crude oil price fell sharply this week, as well as the price of toluene in South Korea market. Although domestic enterprises have entered the resumption period and the market demand has gradually improved, the domestic toluene price still follows the decline. At present, East China The main price is about 4800 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price rebounded at the beginning of this week and fluctuated steadily. As of Friday, Brent futures rose 2.01%, Brent futures rose 2.94%, WTI futures rose 2.49% and Dubai futures rose 3.65%.

In the downstream, TDI, at present, the price of toluene TDI is about $557 / T FOB ARA, and the price of domestic goods delivered with tickets is 11000 yuan / T for reference. Affected by the slow recovery of downstream demand, it is expected that the TDI market will stabilize after the bottom exploration next week. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 6200 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 665 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 683 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will stabilize after the bottom is reached next week.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement, worries about the global economy due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption. On the whole, it is expected that the price of toluene in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will rebound in the next week, adding that domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period, and the market demand will gradually improve. It is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will stabilize in the next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of the mainstream manufacturers on March 2 was 18333.33 yuan / ton, and the average price of the weekend (6 days) was 18333.33 yuan / ton. This week’s market is temporarily stable. On March 8, the R22 commodity index was 110.00, flat with yesterday, down 0.90% from the period’s highest point of 111.00 (2020-02-24), and up 31.89% from the lowest point of 83.40 on October 14, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R22 price in refrigerant market is stable this week. In March, the market gradually revived. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end has increased, which has strong support for refrigerant R22. However, the demand side industry is still weak, and this week, the trend of refrigerant R22 is stable. As of March 6, the average price of refrigerant R22 is about 18333.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation is mostly about 17500 yuan / ton – 19000 yuan / ton. The refrigerant R22 is in a high stable state.

Industry chain: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid slightly increased. Recently, the situation of on-site manufacturers’ delivery has improved. Some on-site manufacturers have not yet resumed production. In addition, the transportation is still limited. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight, the purchase demand has increased, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly increased. In the near future, the price of raw material fluorite remains high, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has been supported, The price trend of hydrofluoric acid in China is rising. By the end of the week, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 11000-11500 yuan / ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 10500-11500 yuan / ton. The terminal air conditioning manufacturers have resumed work, but the demand is average.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 9th week of 2020 (3.2-3.6), there are 23 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are sulfur (8.38%), sulfuric acid (7.78%) and propylene (4.36%). There are 30 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 1.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are epichlorohydrin (- 6.28%), mixed xylene (- 4.46%) and ethanol (- 4.39%).

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, the operation rate of R22 unit has been improved at present, and the rising price of raw material end supports the refrigerant R22, but the demand starts slowly, and it is expected that the refrigerant R22 will be integrated in the short term.