1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of power coal ushered in a turning point from June 9. On June 17, the average port price of power coal was maintained at 570 yuan / ton, 2.75% higher than the average power coal price of 554.75 yuan / ton on June 1, and 3.54% higher than the average power coal price of 550.5 yuan / ton on June 9. Recently, the price of power coal has risen slightly, and the power coal market continues to be hot.
Before that, the price of power coal went up in May after a round of decline due to the “public health event” in March and April. After May 1st, the highway resumed charging, the downstream users of coal mostly purchased on demand, the mine mouth market delivery was poor, and the price was under pressure. The market demand of the downstream power plant has picked up slightly, driving the price of power coal up slightly. From the end of May to the first ten days of June, the price of power coal fell. Because of the end of the “two sessions” and the completion of the overhaul of the Daqin line, the level of port transfer in around the Bohai Sea gradually picked up. At the beginning of the month, the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the quotation of traders was stable, and the transaction was fair. With the arrival of the rainy season in the south in the later period, the power of hydropower has been gradually opened, the power of thermal power has been partially squeezed, the increase of coal consumption of coastal power plants is limited, and the inventory of coastal power plants has declined.
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On June 17, the power coal commodity index was 68.67, up 0.48 points from yesterday, down 33.34% from 103.01 (2011-11-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 53.62% from 44.70, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In terms of origin, the supply is tight. After the completion of the “two sessions”, the safety inspection was intensified, some coal mines in some areas were shut down and production was limited, the coal price in the production area increased significantly, and the overall production enthusiasm of coal mines was low. At present, dozens of large-scale coal mines in Shaanxi have been shut down for rectification. Ordos continues to strictly control the coal management ticket. Yulin area has carried out a month long safety inspection. The resumption of production of coal mines in the main production area is not as expected. The overall domestic supply is affected. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on June 15, China’s raw coal production in May was 318 million tons, down 0.1% year-on-year, and up 6% year-on-year in April.
In terms of downstream power plants, the demand is gradually picking up. The rainfall in the South increased and the hydropower generation capacity decreased due to flood discharge. At present, the daily consumption of six coastal power plants is about 670000 tons. As of June 12, the inventory of six coastal power plants is 15.4779 million tons, down 1.8 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the available days are about 22 days. Daily consumption is expected to continue to rise as the peak season of electricity consumption gradually arrives. In terms of electricity, the demand growth in May was significant. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in May, the country’s absolute generating capacity was 593.2 billion kwh, an increase of 4.3% year on year, 4 percentage points higher than that in April.
In terms of imports, quotas are tight. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, in May 2020, China imported 22.057 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%; from January to may, China imported 148.711 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. At present, the state of import tightening is still maintained, and only a small number of bidding for power plants have been completed. In recent years, China has implemented the policy of level control of imported coal, aiming to control the total amount of imported coal within 300 million tons. Now, the total amount of imported coal has reached 150 million tons from January to may, and the quota of imported coal in the second half of the year is relatively tight.
According to the analysts of the business club, firstly, the coal supply of the production area is tight in the near future, and it is still in the state of vehicle and other coal; secondly, the demand of the downstream power plant is gradually picking up with the weather getting hotter and hotter, and the pace of the downstream enterprises returning to work and production is speeding up, the infrastructure construction projects are accelerating, the demand of coal consumption industries such as cement and building materials will gradually pick up, and the peak time of summer will come Before that, the power plant still had the demand for replenishment of storage; in terms of re import, the quota was still tight, the price of Indonesian coal fell to the low point since the outbreak, and the price of imported coal continued to weaken. Some coal types in the port are in short supply, and traders are willing to hold up the price. In a comprehensive view, the power coal still has a small increase basis, specifically the downstream market demand.
| Thiourea |