Early closing of Futures: on January 6, the futures price of pf2105 contract closed at 6714, up 4.55% from the same period last week. Intraday and closing all hit a new high since the listing.

 

Spot price: the average price of East China staple fiber is 6100 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton or 2.52% over the same period last week.

 

Upstream: on the 5th, the 13th OPEC + ministerial meeting ended. Saudi Arabia said it would unilaterally cut production by 1 million barrels per day on the basis of its existing crude oil production quota. Affected by the news, crude oil in New York rose to about $50 / barrel.

 

Supply: Sanfangxiang (600370) 200 kt PET staple fiber plant was overhauled on December 31, Suqian Yida 400 kt / a PET staple fiber plant was overhauled on July 7, and Fujian Xianglu about 160 KT PET staple fiber plant was planned to start overhauling in mid January, resulting in short-term PET staple fiber spot market supply contraction.

 

Production and marketing: after new year’s day, the production and marketing of polyester staple fiber is still at a relatively high level.

 

Caution in the future.

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According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of January 5, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 403 yuan / ton, which increased by 7 yuan / ton or 1.68% compared with December 30, and increased by 10 yuan / ton or 2.54% compared with December 1.

 

Returning after the festival to welcome the “first rise” of phosphate rock in 2021

 

In January 2021, after the new year’s day, the market quotation of phosphorus ore in Guizhou and other mainstream areas increased by 10-20 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price of the market was close to the high end. The price increase was mainly due to the support of demand. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stock increased, the orders increased, and the mine shipment improved compared with the previous period. At present, the on-site transaction was stable, as of January 5, 2021 The price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei area is 350-360 yuan / ton. Guangxi region: 28% phosphate rock plate quotation 290-320 yuan / ton, 30% phosphate rock plate quotation 340-360 yuan / ton. Guizhou region: 30% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 340-370 yuan / ton, the price increased by 20 yuan / ton compared with a week ago, 28% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 290-320 yuan / ton, the price increased by 10 yuan / ton compared with a week ago

 

Downstream, yellow phosphorus, near the festival, downstream stock increase, enterprise quotation continued to be strong, downstream slightly wait-and-see mood, at present, Yunnan Net phosphorus factory acceptance reference price around 16100-16300 yuan / ton. In terms of phosphoric acid, the current phosphoric acid market is supported by the rise of raw material yellow phosphorus, and the overall quotation of the market also keeps up with the rise.

 

Demand follow-up and timely operation of short-term phosphate rock

 

At present, the trading atmosphere of the domestic phosphate ore market has improved, the downstream demand has been followed up in time, the new single purchase volume has increased, and the confidence of the phosphate ore industry has been boosted. Therefore, the phosphate ore analysts of the business community believe that the phosphate ore market will mainly operate stably and firmly in the short term.

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This week (12.28-31), the domestic polysilicon market stabilized, and the price rebounded from the bottom. The domestic market and imported material prices rebounded to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the business society, polysilicon rose or fell by 0.26% this week. The main reason is that as the operating rate of the enterprise maintains at the early stage, there is another polysilicon manufacturer for device maintenance, and the supply pressure is not big, but the market demand is slightly enlarged by the impact of centralized procurement before the festival.

 

After entering December, polysilicon has shown signs of bottoming out, and the market atmosphere is more positive in the middle and late ten days. The prices of both domestic manufacturers and imported goods are on the rise. Although the range is not large, affected by the recovery of single crystal, the whole silicon industry has a little positive market at the end of the year.

 

On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers remains at a medium to high level. Up to now, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers have maintained 2 maintenance or load reduction operations. It is expected that production may resume in the near future, and the market supply is relatively stable. However, the current high operating rate has not led to stock accumulation behavior, and the inventory of most enterprises has no obvious upward trend, which is still acceptable Control, which is mainly due to the recent downstream manufacturers are also accelerating the process of digestion.

 

In the middle and late part of this year, the purchase volume of silicon wafer manufacturers increased significantly compared with that in November, and the situation of enterprise signing continued. Most enterprises signed orders in December, and a few large manufacturers began to sign new orders in January next year. This mainly depends on the stability of current demand. Downstream silicon wafer manufacturers, especially monocrystalline silicon wafer, are in short supply. Therefore, the market gradually inclines to polycrystalline silicon wafer, which drives the demand for some polycrystalline silicon materials. According to the monitoring of the business association, the current mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with grade I solar material in China is 53000-55000 yuan / ton, and the tax inclusive price of polysilicon in non China is 65000-66000 yuan / ton.

 

In the near future, polysilicon will mainly maintain the balance between supply and demand. In the near future, the operating rate of enterprises is expected to maintain a high level. However, affected by the pre Festival purchasing volume of downstream silicon wafers, polysilicon may maintain the pattern of prosperous supply and demand. It is expected that the price of polysilicon will rise before the lunar new year.

 

Note: the above price includes tax

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The sulfur commodity index on December 31 was 55.60, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.46% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 115.59% from 25.79, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

 

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the average price of sulfur production in East China is 1013.33 yuan / ton. Refineries in various regions in China quote prices according to their own shipment situation. Sulfur quotations in North China and Shandong are temporarily stable, and the sulfur market is strong. With the concentration of port cargo rights, refineries in various regions of China maintain low inventory operation, the attitude of cargo holders is better, the low price in the market is hard to find, and the buyer and the seller mainly wait and see. Sinopec’s mainstream price of solid sulfur in North China is 910-920 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s mainstream price of solid sulfur in East China is 970-1280 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong is 1020-1050 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of sulphuric acid, domestic market differentiation operation, Shandong sulphuric acid enterprises started smoothly, enterprise inventory remained low, downstream demand was good, market purchase was active, market transaction atmosphere was good, and future market was weak and stable. The market demand for phosphate fertilizer is stable, the price trend of Monoammonium and diammonium is dominant, the winter storage market is in progress, the inquiry in the market is positive, the orders are sufficient, and the market continues to improve.

 

Future forecast: at present, the price of domestic sulfur market is strong, the domestic sulfur inventory is low, the quotation of sulfur enterprises is stable as a whole, the shipment is smooth, the new year’s Day holiday is approaching, the market talks are mostly wait-and-see, and the short-term sulfur market is expected to be stable.

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Trend analysis

 

According to the data monitoring of business community, the rising trend of cobalt Market at the end of 2019 could not be continued in 2020. Affected by the epidemic situation, the cobalt Market in 2020 was relatively cold, far lower than the market expectation. As of December 30, cobalt price was 272666.66 yuan / ton, up 2.31% from 266500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1). Although the price of cobalt will rise slightly in 2020, compared with the expected price of cobalt, the market of cobalt in 2020 will be rather cold. In the overall cold market of cobalt, several different voices will become the “rising voice” in the trend of cobalt price in 2020.

 

New energy vehicle market

 
According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, from January to November 2020, the production of new energy vehicles completed 1.119 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, and the sales completed 1.109 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. In the post subsidy era, the production of new energy vehicles will decrease slightly in 2020, and the sales will increase year on year, providing sufficient support for the demand of cobalt market. The production and sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply, the demand for cobalt market rose significantly, and the positive market of cobalt market increased greatly.

 

According to the data reported by the media, the cumulative sales volume from January to November in Europe is expected to be 1.1 million, and it is expected to reach 1.25 million this year, with a year-on-year growth of over 120%. The European Union’s 2030 climate target plan raises the 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target from 40% to 60%. Countries have introduced various subsidy policies and the target time of banning fuel vehicles has been advanced. In addition, the quantity and promotion of new models in Europe, a series of measures have led to a sharp rise in the sales of electric vehicles in Europe. The epidemic has limited impact on the European new energy vehicle market. Sales of new energy vehicles in Europe have increased greatly, and the demand for cobalt market has risen sharply, which is favorable for cobalt market.

 

Domestic mobile phone production and sales data

 
According to the statistics of China Academy of information technology, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market in November was 29.584 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%. In November, the domestic mobile phone sales declined year-on-year, but the decline contracted, and the month on month rise sharply. The demand of cobalt market slowly recovered, which is good for the cobalt market. However, due to the overall decline of mobile phone sales, the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market generally declined, and the rising power of cobalt market is limited.

 

According to IDC’s 2020 shipment data of global smart phone market, in the first quarter of 2020, the global smart phone shipment decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, 16.0% in the second quarter, still in a declining state in the third quarter, 1.3% year-on-year, and the overall sales volume of global smart phone market is expected to decline by 2.3%. In the third quarter, global smartphone shipments totaled 353.6 million units, down 1.3% year-on-year, but the results were stronger than IDC’s previous forecast of – 9%. The epidemic situation began to improve, and some mobile phone markets around the world have a trend of recovery. The recovery of mobile phone market is obviously good for the demand of cobalt Market in the future, and the rising power of cobalt Market in the future is greater.

 

According to the data released by IDC, in the third quarter of 2020, the global Tablet PC shipment increased by 24.9% year-on-year to 47.6 million units; in the third quarter of 2020, the global wearable device shipment reached 125 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%. In 2020, the global smartphone shipment will decline, but the relative Tablet PC and wearable device shipment will increase greatly. Overall, in terms of 3C products and intelligent devices, there is a large space for global demand to rise in the future, the demand for cobalt market is expected to rise, and the demand for cobalt Market in the future is more dynamic.

 

According to hardware industry executives and analysts, global sales of laptops and desktops in 2020 are at the highest level since the launch of the iPhone in 2007, and PC shipments are expected to reach about 300 million units in 2020, an increase of about 15% over the previous year, Reuters reported. The increase of computer sales has brought a positive effect on the demand of cobalt market. Although this positive supporting time remains to be investigated, the overall demand of cobalt market has a certain support.

 

Import of cobalt raw materials

 

The import volume of cobalt raw materials (10000 tons of metal tons) rose or fell by% in the current month, and the cumulative import volume of cobalt raw materials (10000 tons of metal tons) rose or fell by%

January to February 2020: 0.5-34-1.2-24

March 2020 0.89 43 2 31

April 2020: 0.82 70 2.87 42

May 2020 0.37 – 55 3.24 14

June 2020: 0.44-42.68.3

July 2020: 0.84 10 4.52 4

August 2020: 0.93 3 5.45 4

September 2020: 0.67 – 32 6.12 – 2

October 2020: 1.07 15 7.19 0

November 2020 0.9 9 8.09 1

According to the statistics of China Customs, China’s import of cobalt raw materials totaled 80900 tons of metal tons from January to November 2020, an increase of 1% year on year. Although affected by the epidemic, African ports were closed in April, and China’s Cobalt raw material imports decreased significantly, the overall impact of China’s Cobalt raw material imports was small, and the annual import volume increased slightly. The increase of cobalt raw material import is bad for the domestic cobalt market, which has certain downward pressure.

 

According to South African media reports, South African President ramafosa announced in a televised speech last night that South Africa will re-enter the level 3 blockade from 0:00 on December 29, and will not decide whether to update the epidemic prevention measures until January 15. The port of Mozambique Bela was temporarily closed due to typhoon. South Africa’s re blockade and port stoppage have a certain impact on the import of cobalt raw materials. Domestic cobalt raw material imports may decrease in a short term, and the cobalt market has a greater upward momentum.

 

Market Overview

 

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that the global cobalt market will be mainly cold in 2020 due to the impact of the first epidemic. Although there are various policy supports, the overall demand of cobalt market is still slightly insufficient. But after a bleak, we found that there are still “Rising Voices” in the cobalt market. It is these “Rising Voices” that support the rebound of cobalt price in 2020, and also bring hope for the future rise of cobalt market. In 2020, the sharp drop of mobile phone sales will lead to the decline of cobalt market demand, and the increase of new energy vehicle sales will not meet the expectation, which are the main reasons for the difficult rise of cobalt price in 2020. The rising sales of 3C products such as computers and wearable products have brought new growth points to the demand of cobalt market. The outbreak of new energy vehicle market in Europe also supports the market of cobalt from plummeting. Finally, due to the impact of the epidemic, the international freight cost increases, which has a greater impact on China’s Cobalt market, which is heavily dependent on imports. The increase of cobalt cost has a certain support for the rise of cobalt price. In the future, the impact of the epidemic is gradually weakening, and the global market is slowly warming up. Stimulated by 5g mobile phones, the sales of mobile phones may usher in new growth in 2021, and the growth of new energy vehicles is irresistible. In the demand of cobalt Market in 2021, new energy vehicles will be the main force driving the rise of cobalt price. It is generally expected that the demand of cobalt Market in the future will still have a big outbreak point, and there is room for the rise of cobalt price in 2021 The price of cobalt is expected to hit the peak of 400000 yuan in 2021.

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