1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business association, the weak operation of soda ash in China is dominant. The average price of domestic market in East China is one thousand two hundred and eighty-three point three three About yuan / ton. On May 18, the commodity index of light soda ash was sixty-eight point three eight , down from yesterday one point five three Point, the highest point in the cycle one hundred and seventeen point eight six Point (2017-11-21) decreased 41.98% , compared with the lowest point on November 18, 2015 sixty-three point one five It’s up 8.28% 。 (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The domestic soda price is weak and stable. In East China, the weak and stable market of soda ash is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1200-1350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1300-1400 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the short term. The consolidation market of soda ash in Central China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1150-1250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1200-1300 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The market price of soda ash consolidation in North China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1550 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The overall inventory of the enterprise is still on the high side.

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the overall weak sorting of soda ash, weak operation of domestic soda ash market, poor market atmosphere, general demand of downstream market, high inventory pressure, and active shipment and consumption of inventory by enterprises are the main factors. It is estimated that the weak operation of soda ash is still the main factor in the short term based on the downstream market demand.

According to statistics, the price trend of ammonium nitrate in China this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of ammonium nitrate in China is 2330 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week, up year on year 18.47% 。 The commodity index of ammonium nitrate on May 15 is one hundred and twenty-two point six three , same as yesterday, higher than the highest point in the cycle one hundred and twenty-five point two six Point (2020-03-15) dropped 2.10% , compared with the lowest point on October 31, 2016 seventy-seven point three seven It’s up 58.50% 。 (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China is temporarily stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plants is normal. The on-site supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The price trend of manufacturers is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal. Transportation has been alleviated to a certain extent. The market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. In the near future, ammonium nitrate manufacturers have a good shipping market, downstream purchase on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2100-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2500-2700 yuan / ton.

This week, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China was temporarily stable, and the weekend price was one thousand four hundred and thirty-three point three three Yuan / ton, the price trend this week is temporarily stable. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1300 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1350 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1700 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1400 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1580 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation of domestic maintenance equipment is normal, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, the goods are in poor condition, the price trend of nitric acid market remains low, the low price of nitric acid is the negative impact of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia this week is temporarily stable. Since May, the market has been mostly stable, keeping a narrow range of shocks and adjusting the range within 100 yuan. On the one hand, the high start-up rate of manufacturers in the early stage has accumulated a large amount of inventory. At present, the manufacturers are willing to de inventory. On the other hand, the spring farming season has passed, and the downstream demand has stabilized, unable to continue to drive the rise of the liquid ammonia market. The procurement strength of downstream nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers has slowed down obviously, and most of them are on-demand procurement. At present, the supply and demand of the market is in the balance stage. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current quotation of liquid ammonia in the northern region is around 2800-2900 yuan / ton, the price trend of upstream raw materials is temporarily stable, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable.

In the near future, the downstream demand is limited, but the price trend of raw materials market remains low, and the ammonium nitrate Market loses certain cost support. The ammonium nitrate analyst of the business association thinks that the market price of ammonium nitrate may remain stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the price of lithium hydroxide Market was lowered this week, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. As of the 15th, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 55666.67 yuan / ton, down 2.34% compared with the beginning of the week, and down 17.73% in half a year. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 56000 yuan / ton, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Eugene Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, and the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Zigong tongfarong Industrial Co., Ltd. is 53000 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price is a single negotiation. On May 14, the lithium hydroxide commodity index was 132.54, unchanged from yesterday, 65.26% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 381.48 (2016-09-12), and 32.54% higher than the lowest point, 100.00 on September 4, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2014-09-01 to now)

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the upstream lithium carbonate market is in a weak position in the near future (5.1-5.14). As of May 14, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 41700 yuan / ton, down 0.48% compared with May 1; the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 46000 yuan / ton, down 1.50% compared with May 1. At present, the demand side of the market is still poor, and the downstream market is dominated by rigid demand purchase, with a general trading atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, the market of lithium carbonate will be weak and stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 14, 2020, among which ethylene (4.79%), dichloromethane (3.14%) and chloroform (2.86%) are the top three commodities. There are 8 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products with a decline are mixed xylene (- 2.83%), toluene (- 1.73%) and styrene (- 1.58%). The average price of this day is 0.15%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the upstream lithium carbonate market is weak, the cost support is weak, and new orders are generally traded in the market. It is expected that in the short term, the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be stable for the time being.

1、 Price trend

The domestic butadiene market was slightly sorted out. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, as of May 14, the domestic butadiene market price was 4345 yuan / ton, which was higher than that of the same period last month 22.95% , down from the same period last year 45.52% 。

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the domestic butadiene market is slightly sorted out, the supplier has no latest price guidance, the northern middlemen mainly offer stable prices, the price of superior products is 4550-4650 yuan / ton, the downstream inventory is relatively abundant, and the market trading is limited. Some merchants in East China wait and see the market trend of the outer market. The market offer is relatively firm. The price of tank delivery is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the delivery price is 4200-4300 yuan / ton. The actual price is negotiated.

In terms of enterprises, the 30000t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Liaoyang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been in stable operation and sold normally. The 100000 t / a oxidation and dehydrogenation unit in Jiangsu Province was shut down on April 27, and the restart time was not known. Puyang Bluestar Chemical Co., Ltd. shut down the 50000 ton / year extraction unit for maintenance on May 10, and the restart time has not been determined yet. Inner Mongolia Jiutai 70000 T / a plant is planned to stop for 5-7 days in the evening of May 12. Shenhuaning coal Six point four There is no quotation for shutdown and maintenance of 10000 t / a unit.

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: the domestic mainstream styrene butadiene market offers stable, moderate and narrow. The main offer of Qilu 1502e in North China is 8200-8300 yuan / ton, and the main offer of Qilu 1502e market in East China is around 8450 yuan / ton.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is stable, the market quotation is weak, the price increase range of the industry is significantly narrowed, and under the drag of transaction and other factors, the overall atmosphere turns cold, and the downstream market access is limited.

3、 Future forecast

The short-term domestic supplier information guidance is limited, some businesses pay attention to the external market information guidance, and hear that the low price of near foreign ships is hard to find, which brings certain support to the mentality of domestic businesses; however, at present, the domestic downstream inventory is abundant and there is no lack of expectation of arrival of ships in the later period, so the market is difficult to have a significant positive support. The butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market is mainly waiting and waiting.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business association, due to the tension between supply and demand, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. As of May 12, the quotation in Henan region was about 2350-2450 yuan / ton; in Shandong region, it was about 2450-2560 yuan / ton; in Hebei region, it was about 2550-2600 yuan / ton; in Western Shaanxi region, it was about 2230 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu region, it was about 2500-2650 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang region, it was about 2500-2650 yuan / ton The price is about 2600-2750 yuan / ton; the price for delivery in South China is about 2450-2550 yuan / ton, which is 3.92% higher than that in early May.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise, the spot market supply was tight, and the enterprise inventory fell to a low level. Affected by the centralized maintenance of enterprises, the main manufacturers in the market are short of supplies. Among them, Shaanxi Yanchang 300000 t / a plant will be overhauled on May 6 for about 30 days, Hebei Jiantao 500000 T / a plant will be overhauled on May 10 for about 20 days, Shanghai Huayi 500000 t acetic acid plant will be shut down for a short time, and the whole market will start at about 50%, which will aggravate the supply shortage. At present, the enterprise about how long the shipment, some manufacturers do not offer, the market transaction price continued to rise.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the domestic methanol price is slightly firm, the market device maintenance is increased, but the re production device is also increased. In addition, the port arrival is expected to be more, and the price is expected to decline in the later period, at present, about 1727 yuan / ton. The domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and other industries are stable, with good cost support, flat demand in the downstream market, and obvious shipping intention of the enterprise Before PTA, there are not many expected devices for maintenance, the starting load and inventory remain high, and it is expected that the future market will be weak.

International: affected by the epidemic situation, the international acetic acid market is weak. At present, the acetic acid Market in North America is about 465 US dollars / ton; the price in Europe is about 550 euros / ton; the supply and demand in Asia are weak, and the price is about 270-330 US dollars / ton;.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, as the enterprise enters the period of centralized maintenance in May, the spot supply in the market is tight, and the gap in the supply end is hard to make up effectively in a short period of time. The enterprise has a strong mentality of pushing up. Although the purchasing performance in the downstream market is more active, it has a certain touch on the high price of acetic acid. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be strong in a short period of time, but the increase will be limited.