1、 Price data

As of April 26, the average selling price of domestic fuel oil was 3660.00 yuan / ton, down 0.54% from 3680.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

On April 26, the fuel oil commodity index was 74.13, unchanged from yesterday, 36.05% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and 60.87% higher than the lowest point, 46.08, on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic fuel oil transaction this week is light, and the actual transaction price is about 3500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of business news agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 25.03 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 16.94 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 32.32%; Brent crude oil is 28.08 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 24.87 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 11.43%. WTI futures delivery reduced international oil prices, and the “US Iraq” relationship was once again strained. OPEC + and other oil producing countries gradually put production reduction on the agenda. Active production reduction combined with passive production reduction brought a certain boost to the market, and international oil prices fell first and then rose. Domestic shale oil price fluctuates little.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there is one kind of commodity in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, with diesel rising (0.67%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 34.08%), Brent crude oil (- 11.72%), and dimethyl ether (- 7.75%). This week’s average was – 4.6%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business club think that the international crude oil fell sharply this week, the overall demand of the domestic ship fuel market is light, the shipping market is sluggish, the transaction is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see is the main thing. It is expected that the market price of fuel oil before the festival will be stable, or around 3500 yuan / ton.

Adipic acid market trend chart

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, from April 20 to 26, last week, the domestic adipic acid market was weak and stable, with little change in price compared with last week. According to the data monitored by the business club, the weekly decline of adipic acid in East China was 1.20%, the market demand was weak, and the supply pressure was still there. Some dealers’ quotations rose and fell within 100 yuan. Most manufacturers were still short of the market and light of inventory operation According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current quotation range of adipic acid market is 6500-6700 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of market supply, at present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is still relatively prominent, and the supply pressure is also becoming more and more severe. The main reason is that the manufacturers still maintain a high rate of start-up. Although most dealers have returned to normal shipment, they still haven’t reached the level of shipment before the epidemic, which leads to the gradual increase of inventory pressure of manufacturers. It is more and more urgent for enterprises and market to de stock. In terms of cost, although pure benzene has rebounded significantly from the beginning of April to now, it has not brought fundamental benefits to adipic acid. On the one hand, the delay of cost transfer, on the other hand, the early pure benzene has dropped sharply, and the decline of adipic acid has not fully kept up with the decline of pure benzene, so there is still some profit space for adipic acid without rebounding, so adipic acid is also higher Pure benzene is more resistant to falling.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the operating rate of downstream factories has not been significantly improved, and plastic products are still in the off-season of consumption, which is difficult to boost the market. In particular, the operating rate of downstream real estate is generally lower than that of the same period last year, and the sales volume of polyurethane and other thermal insulation materials has declined significantly. In addition, the downstream products such as PA66 have not come out of the dilemma, and the price is still at a low level, which eventually leads to the outflow of adipic acid The goods situation is not ideal, the inventory is difficult to digest, the manufacturer has a lot of inventory pressure, the dealers generally follow the market, and purchase on demand. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, the external demand has also worsened, especially affected by the overseas epidemic, the external demand has decreased, and the pressure on adipic acid export has continued to increase, which does not rule out the possibility that the inventory will continue to rise in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

In the later stage, the business association predicted that the whole chemical industry market was impacted by the background of low oil price, and the market confidence was generally weak. Although the price of pure benzene rebounded, it was still at a relatively low level in history. The upstream bad position was still an important factor restricting the adipic acid market, but more importantly, it was affected by the weak market demand, especially the overseas epidemic situation was not effectively controlled, and foreign orders were sharply shrinking, Adipic acid export has been hit. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid should maintain a downturn in the near future.

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, this week’s gasoline and diesel prices fell first and then stabilized, with a slight decline. The domestic gasoline price was 4816 yuan / ton, 3.44% lower than last week’s gasoline price; the domestic diesel price was 5129 yuan / ton, 1.49% lower than last week’s diesel price.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: crude oil futures fell sharply this week, the operating rate of domestic refining and chemical equipment remained at a high level, the market demand for refined oil was not good to stimulate, and the market price of refined oil fell slightly this week.

Industry chain: WTI futures delivery dropped international oil prices, crude oil prices fell, the “US Iraq” relationship between China and the United States was once again strained, geopolitical risk factors increased the premium space of crude oil; at the same time, OPEC + and other oil producing countries gradually put production reduction on the agenda, active production reduction superimposed by movable production reduction brought certain boost to the market. International oil prices fall first and then rise.

Market: on the demand side, there is a lack of good news support for gasoline this week. The downstream gas stations mostly replenish the storage as needed, and the main outsourcing orders are released, but the support is limited. In terms of diesel, engineering, infrastructure, logistics and transportation still have a strong support for the diesel market. The inventory of downstream customers is not high, and market transactions are still dominated by bargain hunting. Affected by the epidemic this year, travel during the May Day holiday has limited boost to the oil product market demand. This week, the price of domestic refined oil market fell first and then stabilized, with a slight decline overall.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that: the international crude oil demand is weak, the market price is still under pressure, and there is no bright spot in the domestic oil product demand, so it is expected that the domestic oil product market will be weak and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of April 21, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several main stream areas monitored by the data was around 14600 yuan / ton. Compared with the average market price of 15400 yuan / ton after the Qingming Festival of this month (April 7), it decreased by about 800 yuan / ton, nearly 5.20%; compared with the average market price of 15200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1), it decreased by 600 yuan / ton About RMB / ton, down 3.8%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in April, the market of organosilicon DMC didn’t start to improve significantly. In the early days of the month, the market was still in a weak position. The manufacturer’s heart of price increase was in full expression. From the low price in the early stage to the inventory, the goods were still available, the orders increased, and the inventory decreased. After the Qingming Festival, some manufacturers increased the ex factory quotation of organosilicon DMC. On April 7, the data monitoring showed that the market reference average price was 15400 yuan / ton at that time It is the highest reference price of this month, among which, Shandong Luxi Chemical DMC adjusted the external offer price to 15200 yuan / ton, 800 yuan higher than the lowest price in March (reference price: 14400 yuan / ton). However, the demand of the terminal market is still insufficient, and the downstream wait-and-see mentality is relatively heavy. In order to ship, single enterprises can only play games in both inventory and price, maintaining the momentum of price increase for several days and falling again. Some single factories began to reduce the load and production, and many other factories lowered the factory price of organic silicon DMC again. On the 13th, the market reference average price was 14933 yuan / ton, which was 470 yuan / ton lower than that on the 7th Right. At present, the market falls again and again. As of April 21, the main reference quotation of data monitoring organosilicon DMC market is around 14500-15500 yuan / ton, and some low-end quotations are around 14200 yuan / ton. It is heard that several monomer manufacturers have plans to start parking or production reduction in late April, and the overall market is expected to reduce production by about 20%.

Industry chain: upstream metal silicon Market: at present, export transactions are light, foreign trade is weak, and spot trade of port traders is relatively light; domestic trade and investment are relatively good, but based on the weak market of downstream products, the market has a low willingness to store goods, and the willingness to reduce prices is rising. On the 21st, the price of silicon in Shanghai metal market remained stable, with the current price range of 11300-11500 yuan / ton and the average price of 11400 yuan / ton; the market price of silicon in Tianjin and Hong Kong remained stable, with the current price range of 10800-10900 yuan / ton and the average market price of 10850 yuan / ton; the market price of silicon in Fujian Province remained stable, with the current price range of 10400-10600 yuan / ton and the average market price of 10500 yuan / ton. It is predicted that the short-term operation of silicon metal will be weak.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that it is expected that the price of organosilicon DMC market will rise slightly in the end of April under the active regulation and control, and the overall market will mainly recover in a stable and small way.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, since the end of March, zinc prices have risen in shock. In April, the zinc market continued to pick up in March, and the zinc price rose steadily. As of April 20, the spot price of zinc was 16430.00 yuan / ton, up 5.84% from 15523.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of April. Zinc market recovered and zinc price rose in shock.

2、 Market trend analysis

Zinc stock

Time        weekly inventory    increase / decrease

Subtotal futures      subtotal futures

4.13-4.17 146966 79668 -6352 -4315

4.6-4.10 153318 83983 -4821 -2680

3.30-4.3 158139 86663 -1867 -2339

3.23-3.27 160006 89002 -8319 -5008

3.16-3.20 168325 94010 -1586 7125

3.9-3.13 169911 86885 7509 -1202

3.2-3.6 162402 88087 2391 1999

It can be seen from the figure that since the end of March, the weekly inventory of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market has continued to decline, and the oversupply of zinc market has been alleviated to a certain extent. The demand of zinc city has gradually recovered. Good for zinc market.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business association, believes that since March, domestic enterprises have started construction one after another, and downstream enterprises in zinc city have started to increase. The demand for zinc ingots has increased, zinc market has recovered, and zinc market has sufficient momentum to rise. The market zinc ingot inventory continued to decline. In the short term, the demand rise exceeded the supply, and the oversupply was relieved. On the whole, the demand of zinc market has recovered, the stock of zinc market has declined, and the oversupply of zinc market has been alleviated. Zinc prices have some upward momentum.