1、 Price data
As of April 26, the average selling price of domestic fuel oil was 3660.00 yuan / ton, down 0.54% from 3680.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.
On April 26, the fuel oil commodity index was 74.13, unchanged from yesterday, 36.05% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and 60.87% higher than the lowest point, 46.08, on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: the domestic fuel oil transaction this week is light, and the actual transaction price is about 3500 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: according to the monitoring of business news agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 25.03 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 16.94 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 32.32%; Brent crude oil is 28.08 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 24.87 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 11.43%. WTI futures delivery reduced international oil prices, and the “US Iraq” relationship was once again strained. OPEC + and other oil producing countries gradually put production reduction on the agenda. Active production reduction combined with passive production reduction brought a certain boost to the market, and international oil prices fell first and then rose. Domestic shale oil price fluctuates little.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there is one kind of commodity in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, with diesel rising (0.67%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 34.08%), Brent crude oil (- 11.72%), and dimethyl ether (- 7.75%). This week’s average was – 4.6%.
3、 Future forecast
Energy analysts of business club think that the international crude oil fell sharply this week, the overall demand of the domestic ship fuel market is light, the shipping market is sluggish, the transaction is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see is the main thing. It is expected that the market price of fuel oil before the festival will be stable, or around 3500 yuan / ton.
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