This week, the domestic coking coal market is stable, with strong narrow range fluctuation and bottom characteristics. According to the monitoring of the business association, the mainstream quotation of the domestic coking coal market in the week of December 2-6 was stable, with slight rise in some areas, mainly due to the tight local supply caused by the accident maintenance and shutdown of coal mines, as well as the production decline caused by the environmental protection and production restriction, superimposed with the import coal policy restrictions and steel market table Now good news and so on boost, the coking coal market situation slightly warms up. At present, the price range including tax is 1380-1510 yuan / ton.

In terms of each region, the price of low sulfur main coking coal in Luliang and Liulin of Shanxi Province increased slightly, with a range of 20 yuan / ton. Due to frequent safety inspections in the near future, the output of local coal mines declined slightly, and the procurement enthusiasm of the downstream coking coal was good. In Linfen and Anze regions, individual low sulfur main coking transactions were stable, medium and small increases, and the overall operation of local coal enterprises was limited by environmental protection, with balanced production and sales, and little inventory. Shanxi and Hebei individual coking started the second round of coke rise, market sentiment improved. The short-term coking coal market is temporarily stable, and the price of some high-quality coal is firm.

According to coking coal analysts of business association, first of all, from the perspective of market supply, the supply is still positive in the short term. On the one hand, although the port coking coal volume has not declined significantly, customs clearance is still under pressure, and the supply of foreign coal is insufficient. In addition, from the perspective of the domestic market, in recent years, Shandong and other places have implemented production restriction, coke enterprises’ inventory has fallen continuously, the sentiment of the spot market has recovered, and the manufacturers have the willingness to replenish the inventory. But at the same time, the recent safety inspection factors lack of fundamental support for the market sentiment and price boost, so coking coal price is also difficult to do much. The business agency expects that the short-term fluctuation of coking coal is relatively strong. In the long run, it is difficult to maintain a high level due to the influence of industry surplus.

I. price trend

PVC market rose like a rainbow in November, and the market turned better. According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by calcium carbide method), on November 1, the price of PVC in China was 6650 yuan / ton, on November 28, the price of PVC in China was 6977.5 yuan / ton, up 4.92% in the month, up 8.80% year on year. On November 28, the PVC commodity index was 87.97, up 0.47 points from yesterday, down 12.03% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 50.97% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: Recently PVC futures continue to pull up, trend is strong, all the way red, support PVC spot market. At present, the PVC market 5 spot is scarce, and the prices of various manufacturers are rising. Since October, the decline rate and maintenance volume of PVC social inventory have exceeded the level of the same period last year, as well as the impact of the phenomenon of low-cost selling by manufacturers in the early stage, which prompted the downstream to actively take goods and accelerate the reduction of inventory, so that the current market supply is scarce. At this stage, some manufacturers often owe orders and do not accept new orders for the time being, that is, the situation of “you have money, I have no goods” appears frequently. Among them, there are some traders who take advantage of the opportunity to speculate, but the downstream factories are tired, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, there are many conflicting emotions, and the actual delivery and investment situation is flat. Now the North has entered the heating season, when the industry is in the off-season, the real estate, infrastructure and other end customers start to reduce, the demand for PVC is limited, and the later PVC maintenance enterprises gradually reduce, the supply increases, and the PVC market price may fall. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of November 28, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6650-7000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 7020-7100 yuan / ton, that of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 7050-7100 yuan / ton, and that of PVC common carbide in Guangzhou is 7240-7320 yuan / ton. Prices have risen to varying degrees.

Futures: the main 2001 contract of PVC futures rose in shock. As of November 28, it closed up 2.09% and closed up 6870 or 55 at night. The highest price in the session was 6905 yuan / ton, which set a new high in nearly half a year, temporarily ranking first in domestic commodity futures, and there is still the possibility of further exploration in the future.

Import and export: in October 2019, China imported a total of 546900 tons of PVC 45377 tons. From January to October 2019, China imported 546900 tons of PVC. In October 2019, 37900 tons of PVC will be exported, and 452300 tons of PVC will be exported from January to October.

Industrial chain: in the near future, crude oil prices have maintained a narrow range of strong shocks, and the overall market price of ethylene has declined first, then rose and then fell. In terms of calcium carbide, the operation of calcium carbide in Northwest China is normal, the price consolidation is stable, and the price of upstream raw materials is low. Compared with last year, the price has dropped a lot, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the future, the price of calcium carbide may be low. The import of PVC downstream products decreased, and the increase of export also supported the price.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on November 28, 2019, there were three kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices, including PVC (1.05%), LLDPE (0.45%) and styrene butadiene rubber (0.18%). A total of 1 commodity declined on a month on month basis, with natural rubber (- 0.17%) falling. The average price of this day is 0.09%.

III. future forecast

PVC analysts believe that: at present, the social inventory is still at a low level, the situation of spot shortage is difficult to change in the short term, and businesses have strong willingness to hold up prices, and it is expected that PVC prices will continue to rise in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market turnover has gradually improved and the port inventory has remained low. This week, the domestic toluene market rebounded slightly by 0.44%.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, the market price of this week is stable, slightly lower, and the transaction is active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5650 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s price stability increased and port inventory remained low, about 20000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices were generally volatile, with Brent up 0.67% at sight, Brent futures up 0.03%, WTI futures up 0.48% and Dubai futures down 0.69%.

On the downstream side, TDI, the domestic TDI market fell slightly this week, and the attitude of the industry tends to be cautious. The price of domestic goods delivered with bills is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods delivered with bills is 11300-11500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the TDI market will maintain a weak shock later. In PX market, the domestic PX price trend is stable this week, and the external market trend is slightly fluctuating. The price is about 773-775 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 794-796 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will decline slightly in the short term.

III. future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, we will continue to focus on market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

I. price trend:

In November 2019, the hydrogenated benzene market rose. The ex factory price in North China was 5000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 5250 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.96%.

On November 30, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 57.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.19% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 30.05% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: in the first half of November, affected by the poor delivery of pure benzene market, the overall trend of crude benzene industry chain declined, and the market price decreased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. With the lower downstream products such as styrene and aniline in the downstream of hydrogenated benzene, the resistance to high prices in the downstream increased, and the firm price of manufacturers was weak, and high-end transactions in the market were rare. In November, although the number of hydrogenated benzene shutdown and maintenance units increased, the downstream units gradually resumed operation, and the demand for hydrogenated benzene increased. With the support of favorable fundamentals, the price of hydrogenated benzene market began to rise. By the end of the month, except for the restart of Tangshan Zhongrun hydrogenated benzene unit, Shandong Jinneng, Hebei minhai and Puyang MaoYuan hydrogenated benzene units that were overhauled in the early stage have not been started yet. Shandong chenyao temporarily plans to start November It was restarted on November 23, and the planned maintenance of Xuyang hydrobenzene unit in Xingtai was about November 24. The overall operating rate of hydrobenzene was at a low level. The operation rate of downstream styrene, aniline and other devices is relatively high in the near future, which has certain support for the hydrobenzene market. However, the overall trend of downstream products is weak, the profit space of the industrial chain is significantly narrowed, and the upward support for hydrobenzene is limited. Although the price of hydrogenated benzene has increased, the cost pressure of enterprises has not been alleviated, the price difference with crude benzene has not been opened to a reasonable price, and most of the profits of enterprises are still below the cost line.

Industry chain: crude oil: crude oil in this month showed an overall upward trend of shock, WTI oil price increased by 7.25% compared with last month, Brent oil price increased by 6.04% compared with last month. Negative: trade risk, US crude oil inventory increase. Good: OPEC may continue to extend production reduction, economic data will be good, and crude oil inventory in the United States will be reduced. Pure benzene: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.

3. Trend forecast:

The downstream continued weak operation, with limited profit space and price sensitivity. Recently, the start-up of hydrobenzene enterprises increased slightly. The price difference of upstream crude benzene market is still lower than the cost line, and it is expected that it will be more difficult for the future hydrobenzene market to rise.

I. price trend

Business agency: MTBE market price rises in November

According to the data of the business agency, the market price of MTBE rose in November. At the end of November, the price of MTBE was 5567 yuan / ton, up 5.70% from 5266 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Market analysis

Product: WTI crude oil market price rose 7.25% in November. Restricted by the weak gasoline demand, the domestic gasoline market price rose only 2.43% in November, driving the price of MTBE downstream market up.

Industry chain: since November, the market demand for refined oil has remained low, but in November, the price of domestic refined oil market has increased continuously by two price adjustments, driving the price of domestic refined oil market to rise slightly. In November, the market price of gasoline rose by 2.43%.

Market: at the beginning of the month, supported by the sharp rise of international oil price, the price of MTBE manufacturers in the North kept rising under the smooth shipment. Although the overall demand in the south market was relatively general, it rose tentatively driven by the tight supply and favorable news. In terms of supply, the start-up load of MTBE plant began to drop to a relatively low level in mid October, until the overall start-up load of MTBE plant rose to a relatively high level of 59% in mid November. In terms of demand, the international crude oil is in an upward trend of shock. The price of domestic refined oil has been adjusted for two consecutive rises. The gasoline and diesel prices have risen by 175 yuan and 170 yuan / ton respectively, which has certain support for the domestic oil market atmosphere.

III. future forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business news agency, the international crude oil price is relatively high, with weak growth, the gasoline market price lacks demand support, and the MTBE market price lacks momentum for growth. It is expected that the domestic MTBE market price will fall steadily in December.