1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market fell sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 1962 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 1842 yuan / ton, down 6.11% in the week, 8.10% on month, 27.52% on year.
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2、 Market analysis
Product: affected by the collapse of international crude oil futures, the main methanol contract ma2005 of zhengshangsuo fell and stopped, and the methanol spot price in East China kept linkage with it, and the market in East China, South China and other places fell sharply. In the first half of the week, methanol in the mainland was mostly on the sidelines. With the port falling sharply, the price in the mainland was also loose, and Shandong, North China, central China and other places were in decline. Enterprises in the main production areas had limited offers, and more contracts were executed.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market fell in shock. Local enterprises started to work one after another, and the overall market supply increased. However, due to the lower fluctuation of upstream methanol market, the lower production cost of formaldehyde enterprises, and the weak follow-up of downstream market demand, the formaldehyde Market in many places gradually declined, and the overall transaction was relatively common.
Acetic acid: after the industry started to improve, the spot supply in the domestic acetic acid market continued to increase, the stock pressure of enterprises in Shandong and Henan gradually increased, and the passive price adjustment competition for shipment dominated, driving the transaction in the East China market to decline one after another. In the North China market, the main downstream chloroacetic acid starts on a low level, and the substantial market demand is weak. Under the situation that some peripheral low-cost goods sources impact the North China market, the local suppliers have a passive phase decline, and this week’s decline is relatively small.
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Dimethyl ether: this week, the trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak, and the price continued to decline. Most of the mainstream enterprises in the main production areas of Henan province carry out the minimum guarantee policy, and their centers announce the settlement price of 2770 yuan / ton of spot exchange to leave the factory. There is preferential space for actual transactions. Due to the impact of international health events, the price of crude oil has been greatly reduced, which has affected the price of liquefied gas. The continuous decline of price has led to a poor attitude of trade procurement, indirectly affecting the sales of dimethyl ether.
3、 Future forecast
Business Club view: on the positive side, with the warmer weather, the demand for traditional downstream formaldehyde and other products has improved; at present, the price of coal to methanol in the north is near the cost line, with some losses; this week, the price of methanol fell too fast, and the number of customers with market intention to copy the bottom has increased. On the negative side, overseas public security emergencies have raised market concerns. The trend of international crude oil, finance and stock market is weak, and market participants are worried about it. At present, the domestic methanol supply is on the increase, with the operating rate rising to over 72%. The port inventory is on the rise again. After Iran’s gas limit is eased, the methanol production is increased, and it is expected to arrive in China in late March. At present, the external information is short, which is unfavorable to the future trend, thus affecting the methanol trend of the port; in addition, with the increase of external market arrival, the methanol port inventory shows an increasing trend, and the methanol storage capacity is tense. The methanol supply and demand pressure in the mainland, the methanol analyst of the business association predicted that the methanol market in some regions would mainly supplement the decline trend.
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