1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers increased from 2790.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2806.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.60%, up 6.41% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, calcium carbide market rose slightly this week, with the calcium carbide commodity index at 73.54 on January 17.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this week slightly increased: oveganeng’s offer of calcium carbide this weekend is 2750 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s offer of calcium carbide this weekend is 2620 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; China United Inner Mongolia’s offer of calcium carbide this week is 2920 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s offer of calcium carbide this weekend is 2750 yuan / ton , compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2600-2900 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2900 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of Lancan is temporarily stable this week, and the quotation of small materials is 730.00 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: this week PVC factory price high consolidation. The price of PVC is 6825.00 yuan / ton, up 7.06% year on year. PVC market in the lower reaches is in high consolidation. Compared with last year, the price is higher. Customers in the lower reaches are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. As a whole, PVC market this week has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

3、 Future forecast

After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, and the cost support is not enough, but the PVC market in the downstream is good, and customers in the downstream are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. The aftermarket forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may rise in shock in late January.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on January 13, the average price of the mainstream manufacturers was 18166.67 yuan / ton, and on the weekend (19), the average price was 18166.67 yuan / ton. This week’s market is temporarily stable. On January 18, the R22 commodity index was 109.00, flat with yesterday’s record high in the cycle, up 30.70% from 83.40, the lowest point on October 14, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R22 price in refrigerant market is stable temporarily this week. Near the end of the year, logistics has been closed down, factories are on holiday, traders are gradually delisting, refrigerant 22 price adjustment space is not large. At present, the support of raw material end is acceptable, the demand of terminal and air conditioning industry is weak, the refrigerant R22 supply in the market is limited, the quota is reduced, the manufacturer mainly provides orders, and the refrigerant R22 trend is stable. As of January 19, the average price of refrigerant R22 is around 18166.67 yuan / ton, and the quotation is mostly concentrated in the range of 17500 yuan / ton to 18500 yuan / ton. The price of refrigerant R22 is stable.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products this month is temporarily stable. In the near future, the situation of on-site manufacturers is general, and on-site spot supply is normal. The price of domestic trichloromethane of upstream products continues to decline. At present, it is in the off-season of trichloromethane, with low inventory of enterprises and poor demand of downstream products. Under the condition of weak supply and demand, it is expected to operate in a weak way in the short term. The terminal air conditioner manufacturer starts at a low level, with general demand.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business association, as the end of the year approaches, the logistics will be shut down one after another, the factory will have a holiday, and the traders will gradually withdraw from the market. There is not much room for refrigerant price adjustment, most of which is consolidation. It is expected that refrigerant R22 will continue to operate smoothly before this year.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the ABS market was stable in the middle of January, and the spot price in the domestic market rarely adjusted. As of January 17, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13500.00 yuan / ton, which almost ran across the board in a week, without any rise or fall.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industry chain: in all upstream aspects of ABS, the price of styrene was stable this week, and the support of styrene cost was weakened due to the dramatic fluctuation of international crude oil trend last week. Upstream, pure benzene was temporarily stable, ethylene rose sharply, and production cost support still existed. The downstream PS and EPS are stable. The downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials and continue to digest the raw material inventory. With the price reduction of the upstream factory, the downstream replenishment demand is acceptable. The oil market fell slightly, while the US gold market rose, and the peripheral guidance for styrene was still good. Domestic production enterprises are stabilizing, and they have followed the market to adjust the quotation operation. The wait-and-see atmosphere of the merchants in the market is aggravating, the downstream terminal digestion is under pressure, and the receiving intention is weak. Market bearish sentiment spread. The whole styrene market lacks strong support point;

This week, the spot market of acrylonitrile related products lacked good news and was relatively weak. The recent tight spot supply has a certain supporting effect on the price of acrylonitrile, but with the realization of the restart of some manufacturers’ devices, the supply gap of raw materials for their contracted customers has decreased, and there is a downward trend of downstream purchasing enthusiasm in the field. The traders offer cautiously, making more trades with lower profits;

The domestic butadiene market has been in a narrow range recently. On the positive side, the start of the synthetic rubber industry was ok, and the replenishment of positions in the downstream before the festival had certain support for the market. Due to the weather, the outflow of Jiutai and Ning coal sources was limited. On the negative side, East China is relatively abundant in spot goods, with limited transaction follow-up, and the northern supply side is cautious. In recent days, the weather has affected the circulation of goods in the north, and the spot performance in Shandong market is slightly tight. However, East China is relatively abundant in goods, and the later cargo is still replenished in Hong Kong, so the supply side is not sustainable. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some of the downstream stores may follow up, but the supply of goods from Fushun and Northwest China is unclear, and some businesses are cautious;

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in mid January, the ABS market was stable and the spot prices of various brands were mostly unchanged. Cost side of the upstream three expect to rise and fall this month, general support for the cost side. The spot supply is more sufficient than last month. With the enrichment of spot goods in the field, the purchase follow-up of downstream factories is insufficient, and the mentality of merchants begins to turn weak, and the delivery is mainly on the market. It is expected that the domestic ABS market will be dominated by the whole market in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of cost side.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic propane market is in a broad downward trend. As of January 14, the average price of the domestic propane market is 4867.5 yuan / ton. Prices rose 16.03% month on month and 15% year on year.

2、 Influencing factors

Products: on the 14th, the propane (Shandong) market fell broadly, and the trading atmosphere was light. The price of propane (Shandong) was reduced by 100-200 yuan / ton in Shandong area. Currently, the ex factory price is 4800-5000 yuan / ton, most of which are below 5000 yuan / ton. In the morning, international crude oil continued to decline and close, with a bearish market mentality and a cautious downstream mentality, mainly on the sidelines. In the early stage, propane rose to a high level, and the downstream acceptance capacity was limited. In addition, the current international market news was bad, most refineries lowered their prices, giving priority to profit shipment. Currently, CP is expected to decline in February.

3、 Future forecast

At present, propane market is mainly weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is light. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, mainly wait-and-see. The refinery inventory is relatively high. The price is lowered, and the profit is mainly delivered. It is expected that there is still room for reduction in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the market price of DAP this week maintained stable operation. On January 6, the average ex factory price of 64% DAP in China was 2200 yuan / ton, and on January 12, the average ex factory price of 64% DAP in China was 2200 yuan / ton, maintaining a stable price. So far, the diammonium phosphate commodity index on January 13 is 65.62, which is the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 36.28% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now

2、 Market analysis

Products: at present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province is quoted at 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province is quoted at 2250-2450 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Northwest China is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in recent years, the domestic phosphorus ore market has been in a weak and stable state of operation. During this period, some mining enterprises reduced their prices or limited production slightly to meet the market demand in the off-season. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, mines around the country gradually stopped mining, and some enterprises in Hubei and Sichuan are now in the phase of shutdown. Some enterprises in Guizhou also have maintenance plans before and after the Spring Festival. Liquid ammonia fell 8% this week, mainly because some enterprises cut prices sharply in the middle of the week. The previous high price, affected by market trends, led to a sharp drop in prices. At the end of the week, most manufacturers’ quotations were flat compared with last week. At present, the local ammonia quantity is abundant, especially some manufacturers in Shandong Province have loose supply of goods, and the enterprise’s delivery pressure is increasing gradually. However, the manufacturers with large ammonia quantity mainly stabilize their prices, and continue to deliver goods.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

DAP analysts believe that raw material prices are low, demand follow-up is weak, price increases are blocked, and many transportation is not smooth. It is expected that the price of DAP will keep stable in the later stage.