1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R134a rose this week. On January 6, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 23166.67 yuan / ton, and on the weekend (10 days), the average price was 23333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.72% in the week. On January 10, the R134a commodity index was 85.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.63% from the highest point of 100.00 points (2019-09-02), 8% from the lowest point on November 12, 2019 2.93 points up 2.94%. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: Refrigerant Market R134a rose this week. At present, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end is relatively stable, and some regions form support for refrigerant R134a according to their own adjustment; the vehicle industry’s refrigerant stock is slightly improved, the terminal air conditioning industry maintains rigid demand, the delivery and investment is flat, and the business confidence is insufficient, but at present, the refrigerant R134a has limited supply in the market, which is good for the upward price. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of January 10, the quotation of R134a of Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. in Quzhou is 21500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang technology is 23000 yuan / ton, that of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 23000 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade is 21500 yuan / ton, that of Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 23000 yuan / ton, that of blue planet is 25000 yuan / ton, and that of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 21500 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products is stable temporarily. In the near future, the factory in the field is in a general situation, and the spot supply in the field is normal. The terminal and air-conditioning market are weak in purchase and sale, the inventory in the field is acceptable, the construction is insufficient, the automobile industry is preparing goods for temperature return, and the refrigerant R134a price is favorable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, the supply of refrigerant R134a in the market is still in a tight state, and it is expected that the price of refrigerant R134a will continue to rise in the short term. Considering the new production capacity in the future, there is limited room for growth.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: MTBE market price fell slightly this week (January 6-11)

The price of MTBE at the end of this week was 5466 yuan / ton, down 1.5% from the previous week’s price, according to the data of business agency.

2、 Market analysis

Products: both the international oil price and the gasoline market price have declined, MTBE manufacturers have increased the task of warehouse arrangement before the festival, and the MTBE market price has declined slightly.

Industry chain: this week, international crude oil continued to fall. At present, it is estimated that the price adjustment of domestic refined oil on January 14 will be increased by 60 yuan / ton, but the price adjustment of refined oil is more likely to be stranded, and the market of refined oil will fall slightly. Domestic MTBE prices fell slightly by 1.5% this week.

MTBE Market: on January 8, Trump’s speech on the US Iraq issue eased the international situation, accelerated the downward collapse of oil prices, while the domestic gasoline demand did not substantially improve, MTBE just needed insufficient support, and the price of MTBE manufacturers began to decline near the weekend under the difficulty of shipping. Alkylated oil is also discharged before the festival, so as to make profits go down.

3、 Future forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business agency, the bullish mood of gasoline market is not high at present. Although the demand for gasoline market may be improved during the Spring Festival holiday, and MTBE manufacturers are mainly in the inventory before the festival, so they are not willing to hold the price. MTBE market price is expected to remain stable next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, on January 9, the domestic phosphorus ore market was weak and stable. Based on several sample areas, the average ex factory price of 30% grade phosphorus ore was around 403 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that at the end of 2019.

2、 Market analysis

Products: since winter, the domestic phosphorus ore market has been in a weak and stable operation state. During this period, some mining enterprises slightly reduced their prices or limited production to meet the market demand in the off-season. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the total phosphorus ore production from January to November 2019 amounted to 84.66 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 3.0% (after correction). Moreover, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, mines around the country gradually stopped mining, Hubei, April Some enterprises in Sichuan are now in the phase of shutdown. Some enterprises in Guizhou also have maintenance plans before and after the Spring Festival. At present, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore in Yunnan is 275 yuan / ton; the price of 29% grade phosphate ore in Yunnan is 320 yuan / ton; the price of 30% ammonium phosphate ore in Guizhou is 340-360 yuan / ton; the price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou is 360 yuan / ton; the price of 30% Liushugou in Hubei in Central China The quotation of grade phosphorus ore is about 440 yuan / ton; the quotation of 26% grade high magnesium phosphorus ore in Mabian area of Sichuan Province is about 250 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: up to the 8th, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market is general, and the market trading atmosphere is light. In Guizhou yellow phosphorus market, the current mainstream transaction price is about 17000 yuan / ton; in Yunnan, the mainstream price is about 16400 yuan / ton; in Sichuan, the mainstream price is about 17000 yuan / ton. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, wait-and-see mood is obvious. In the case of low start-up rate, yellow phosphorus spot is tight, near the end of yellow phosphorus adjustment space is still limited, it is expected that the future market will be stable.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, the close of the year, the production suspension and production restriction of the mining enterprises, the limited order delivery and the weak downstream demand are expected. It is expected that the phosphorus ore market will be in weak and stable operation before and after the Spring Festival.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week is 4483 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4200 yuan / ton, which is stable. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4800 yuan / ton, with stable quotation. The downstream market demand of POM is light and stable.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol, the domestic methanol market this week stopped falling and rebounded. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2055 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2077 yuan / ton, up 1.09% in the week, and the price fell 3.48% month on month, down 5.31% year on year.

3、 Future forecast

Polyformaldehyde analyst of business association thinks: polyformaldehyde may continue to be integrated and operated mainly.

According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in China is stable temporarily. As of January 6, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic acid process is 6300 yuan / ton, and the market price trend of o-phthalic anhydride is stable in the near future. On January 6, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 61.31, unchanged from yesterday, 48.96% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 120.13 (2012-02-28), and 26.62% higher than the lowest point, 48.42, on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In the near future, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable, the price of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, the downstream factories maintain rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure still exists, the high-end transaction is blocked, in the near future, the spot supply of manufacturers is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 6200-6500 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method source is 5900-6100 yuan / ton; in North China, the main quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6200-6400 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are mainly stable, the downstream construction is not high, the purchase is mainly on demand, the mentality of observation is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is not changed much, and benzene The price trend of anhydrides is stable temporarily.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detail Benzene price stability influence, phthalic anhydride market price trend temporarily stable.

The price of phthalic anhydride, isooctanol, DOP raw materials, DOP enterprises and DOP suppliers in the downstream are stable and stable. The price of DOP fluctuated and remained stable, the downstream demand of DOP was poor, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm was poor, the downstream PVC price fluctuated and fell, and the PVC industry was off-season. The mainstream quotation of DOP market is about 7350-7600 yuan / ton, and the rising power of DOP in the future market is general, but the price of ox in the upstream is low and fluctuates, and the demand of plasticizer industry is not changed much. The phthalic anhydride analysts of the business society expect that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will be stable temporarily.