1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R134a rose this week. On January 6, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 23166.67 yuan / ton, and on the weekend (10 days), the average price was 23333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.72% in the week. On January 10, the R134a commodity index was 85.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.63% from the highest point of 100.00 points (2019-09-02), 8% from the lowest point on November 12, 2019 2.93 points up 2.94%. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)
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2、 Market analysis
Product: Refrigerant Market R134a rose this week. At present, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end is relatively stable, and some regions form support for refrigerant R134a according to their own adjustment; the vehicle industry’s refrigerant stock is slightly improved, the terminal air conditioning industry maintains rigid demand, the delivery and investment is flat, and the business confidence is insufficient, but at present, the refrigerant R134a has limited supply in the market, which is good for the upward price. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of January 10, the quotation of R134a of Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. in Quzhou is 21500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang technology is 23000 yuan / ton, that of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 23000 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade is 21500 yuan / ton, that of Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 23000 yuan / ton, that of blue planet is 25000 yuan / ton, and that of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 21500 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products is stable temporarily. In the near future, the factory in the field is in a general situation, and the spot supply in the field is normal. The terminal and air-conditioning market are weak in purchase and sale, the inventory in the field is acceptable, the construction is insufficient, the automobile industry is preparing goods for temperature return, and the refrigerant R134a price is favorable.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, the supply of refrigerant R134a in the market is still in a tight state, and it is expected that the price of refrigerant R134a will continue to rise in the short term. Considering the new production capacity in the future, there is limited room for growth.
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