1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, as of December 18, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 415 yuan / ton based on the quotation of sample enterprises in several mainstream areas, and the price was not fluctuated much compared with the early December.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the new orders of domestic phosphorus ore market are still poor this week. The market is light and weak. Some mining enterprises purchase sporadically in the lower reaches. Production is limited and prices are guaranteed. The low season is coming. The prices are basically unchanged before the Spring Festival. In early December, the prices of some large factories in Guizhou are slightly reduced. At present, the prices of 30% ammonium phosphate ore car in Guizhou are 340-430 yuan / ton; the prices of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou kaiphosphate phosphate are 340-430 yuan / ton After the quotation of stone was slightly reduced last week, the price of this week is basically the same, and the ex factory quotation reference is around 350-370 yuan / ton; the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore ship board in Hubei is around 430-440 yuan / ton, the quotation of 28% grade phosphorus ore in Liushugou is around 390 yuan / ton, the quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Liushugou is around 440 yuan / ton, the quotation of 28% ammonium phosphate ore car board in Yunnan is around 275 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Sichuan is around 350-370 yuan / ton The quotation of 26% grade high magnesium phosphate ore in Mabian area is around 250 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: Recently, there are not many new orders in the yellow phosphorus market, and the on-site quotation is stable and wait-and-see. There is no transaction of new orders with low price. At present, the transaction of new acceptance orders in Yunnan area is near 17800 yuan / ton. The phosphoric acid market is temporarily stable, the raw material yellow phosphorus goes down, and the cost support is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it is expected that the phosphorus ore market will continue to be weak in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory listing price of oil-based glycol in North China on December 13 was 5683 yuan / ton, the highest price in nearly half a year, up 17.59% compared with last week, a rare increase in the near future.

At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 4790 yuan / ton. After a week’s continuous increase, the price on Friday was 5650 yuan / ton. Recently, the price exceeded 5500 yuan / ton for the first time, up 17.95%.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

As of December 10, the comprehensive daily operation rate of glycol unit is 65.64%, including 60.96% for oil plant, 64.28% for coal plant and 98.7% for methanol plant. In December, new ethylene glycol units of Rongxin chemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical will be put into operation. According to the plans announced at present, Rongxin chemical plant is planned to be put into operation in the near future. Hengli petrochemical plant is expected to be put into operation on December 20, and the effective capacity of domestic ethylene glycol will be further increased, at that time, the supply of ethylene glycol will continue to increase.

Downstream polyester enterprises began to announce their plans for production reduction and suspension before the Spring Festival. As of December 5, the 2.63 million T / a polyester plant has been put into maintenance, and 5.72 million T / a plant will be shut down for maintenance later, of which 1.84 million T / a plant will be maintained in December. As of the week of December 5, the cycle operation rate of domestic polyester chip is 87.75%, that of polyester staple fiber is 77.73%, that of polyester filament is 77.6%, and the cycle operation rate of polyester filament is 0.3%, 3.92% and 1.3% respectively.

As of Thursday, the glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 324100 tons, down 40300 tons from last Thursday and 4900 tons from Monday. Among them, 137100 tons were in Zhangjiagang, down 35300 tons from last Thursday; 40000 tons in Ningbo; 47000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu, down 30000 tons from last Thursday; 61000 tons in Taicang, down 16000 tons from last Thursday.

III. future forecast

According to glycol analysts from business news agency, at present, due to the delay in the arrival of cargo due to the closure of the Yangtze River channel, glycol port inventory continues to decline, and glycol spot price will continue to rise in the short term. However, due to the gradual improvement of the domestic glycol unit, a new unit will be put into operation soon, and the glycol supply will increase. The operating rate of downstream polyester plant is decreasing, and the purchasing demand is weakening. In addition, the delayed cargo will be concentrated in the port after that, and ethylene glycol will be accumulated in the main port of East China. Combined with the above factors, glycol price may fall after a period of higher.

I. price trend

Business agency: the market price of MTBE fell sharply this week (December 9-15)

The price of MTBE at the end of this week was 5716 yuan / ton, down 4.46% from the previous week’s price, according to the data of business agency.

II. Market analysis

Product: on December 16, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil is expected to run aground, the price of domestic gasoline market is slightly down, the bearish sentiment of MTBE market players is rising, and the domestic MTBE price is mainly down this week.

Industry chain: this week, the international crude oil price fluctuated, and the domestic gasoline market price fell by 0.92% steadily. The domestic gasoline market is not supported by holidays, and the market demand is weak.

MTBE Market: domestic MTBE prices in the North fell significantly in this cycle. First of all, the price of MTBE began to rise to a relatively high level in early December, weakening the downstream purchase intention; second, in many foggy weather, the refinery shipment was blocked, the MTBE market transaction atmosphere was significantly weakened, and the manufacturer shipment was difficult. MTBE manufacturers adopt price reduction promotion. Meanwhile, the market demand in South China is average, but the market price is mainly stable. At the same time, the price of alkylated oil in the northern region showed a significant decline this week, so the domestic MTBE market price fell this week.

III. future forecast

MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business news agency thinks: Although the gasoline market has declined, the decline is limited. The price drop of MTBE market this week is far greater than that of gasoline market. Therefore, the market price of MTBE will be stable next week.

I. melamine price trend:

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic melamine market this week ran smoothly, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week. On the 13th, the mainstream domestic melamine price was 5200-5600 yuan / ton. In a three-month cycle, it fell 3.74% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: the domestic melamine market is running smoothly this week. The operating rate of melamine enterprises has declined, but the downstream demand is not good, and the confidence of the industry is insufficient. Most of the manufacturers are cautious in receiving goods, and mostly wait and see. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5600 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the ex factory price (12.9-12.13) of urea in Shandong Province in the upstream of this week rose slightly, or 0.2%. The upstream liquid ammonia price (12.9-12.13) is temporarily stable, and the market trading is stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

3. Future forecast:

Melamine analysts of the business association believe that the price of raw urea rose slightly this week, the price of liquid ammonia was stable, and the cost support for melamine was limited. The downstream demand is general, and the market has no strong and good support for the time being. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic melamine market will be consolidated and wait-and-see.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on November 1, 2019, the average domestic market price of China’s natural rubber (standard I) was 11230 yuan / ton, and on November 25, the average market price was 12116 yuan / ton, with a maximum increase of 7.89% in the month. After the price correction, as of 29, the price was back to 11790 yuan / ton. Among them, the price of 12116 yuan / ton on the 25th is the highest price of rubber so far in the 2019 market monitored by the business association. As can be seen from the above figure, since 2019, the market of natural rubber has fluctuated from 10000 yuan / ton to 12200 yuan / ton; there have been three times of high price: 12070 yuan / ton on March 4 is the first high price, 12020 on June 11 is the second high price, and the price of 12116 yuan / ton on November 25 is the current highest price in the year; two times of low price: 10700 yuan / ton at the end of April and the beginning of May is the second high price A low price, 10260 yuan / ton at the end of July and the beginning of August is the lowest price this year. In general, November 2019 is a month of strong trend for the market. To the first ten days of December, natural rubber continued the trend of November, with a high short-term callback and shock consolidation; until the fourth day, stimulated by the news of Thailand’s rubber strategic production reduction, the fund continued to focus on Tianjiao, which rose strongly again that day, with Shanghai rubber up more than 400 points, and then the spot rubber price rose with the rise in the next few days; in Tianjiao’s upward market, the market transaction was a little wait-and-see.

Natural rubber, which has been in a weak position for several years, has been fluctuating for more than half a year in the low price range around 2000 yuan / ton in 2019, falling to the annual lowest level in June, and has been in full swing since May. In the second half of May, the price of rubber fluctuated constantly, and experienced the traditional peak season of “golden nine silver ten”. In addition, Southeast Asia was affected by rainstorm and fungal disease, and the output was limited. The natural rubber market started to improve from November. In November, China’s Yunnan Province began to enter the cut-off period. At this time, funds gradually favor natural rubber. On the day of the beginning of the last ten days, natural rubber finally stopped falling and rising. Shanghai rubber has a large amount of funds, and the market is strong. After a short-term correction at the end of November and the beginning of December, the price of ru2005 rose by 3.57% on a single day. The highest price in the session was 13380 yuan / ton, which was the highest in the year. The price of NR 2003 of 20 rubber also rose sharply. The spot rose in the following days. The waiting mood of the purchasing end was strong, and the prices of 9 and 10 were slightly reversed. According to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), the lowest price of natural rubber (Hainan standard 1) in the first ten days of December is 11790 yuan / ton on the first day, and the highest price is 11290 yuan / ton on the sixth to the eighth day, with a 10 day increase of 4.2%. Natural rubber is still in a strong market trend.

II. Market analysis

In terms of supply, at the end of November in Yunnan, about one-third of the cutting has been stopped. In the first ten days of December, the cutting has been basically stopped. In Hainan, the cutting will also be stopped from December. Overseas, Southeast Asia should be in the traditional peak season in terms of season. However, due to the influence of fungal diseases and rainwater in the previous period, the overall production in 2019 is expected to be affected: according to the international tripartite rubber Council (ITRC) report, in 2019, the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to be reduced by 800000 tons. In addition, the southern part of Thailand is affected by rainwater, and the raw materials in Thailand are expected to be reduced Recently, the Thai government agreed to adopt the 20-year rubber strategic plan formulated by the rubber Bureau of Thailand, which proposed to reduce the rubber planting area, increase the average unit area output of the rubber Park, increase the rubber planting income, increase the total rubber export value, and increase the domestic rubber utilization area, so as to promote the rubber industry and create a framework for the development and problem-solving of the entire rubber system , the above news plays a strong role in the market. In general, the total output of natural rubber in domestic and foreign production areas is reduced, stimulating the price to keep rising, and the recent support of raw rubber cost side has a strong impact on Tianjiao market.

In terms of inventory, the data of the previous period shows that on November 29, 2019, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period decreased by 261259000 tons to 22828200 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 29368000 tons to 1672600 tons; in the week of December 6, the Tianjiao inventory was 255200 tons, and the warehouse receipts on October 10 were 184600 tons, slightly increased compared with the end of November. By contrast, the rubber inventory of the previous period is still at a low level. According to the news, Qingdao’s inventory has picked up slightly in the near future. The change of natural rubber inventory has a strong supporting effect on the recent Tianjiao market, but it has not entered into the state of de stocking.

In terms of import and export, China’s customs data shows that in October 2019, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 500000 tons, down 8.4% from 546000 tons last month; from January to October, China’s total imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5213000 tons. In Southeast Asia, Thailand’s natural rubber exports in October fell 24% year-on-year and rose 8% month on month, benefiting from the expiration of Thailand’s four-month export restriction order at the end of September, and Thailand said it would adopt policies to support rubber farmers.

In terms of demand, the current operating rate of downstream tire enterprises is about 70%, and the demand for rubber procurement also needs to consider the influence of seasonal factors and environmental protection factors. Under the situation of strong market expectation, the purchasing end will generally wait and see. According to the data, in November 2019, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell about 94000 vehicles of various types, up 3% on a month on month basis, up 5.3% on a year-on-year basis. Overload control and elimination of national three vehicles lead to an increase in new car purchase. Winter is the off-season of tire seasonal sales. In November, tire sales have declined compared with the same month on month, and dealers are under great pressure. However, before the year, there will be a demand for goods in the downstream, which may have a short-term support for the market.

III. future forecast

According to the natural rubber analysts of the business club, the total output of natural rubber is tighter than that of previous years, and the inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years. In the near future, the heavy truck sales are good, and the downstream procurement is relatively stable. In addition, the stock up demand before the year will generally have some support, and the expectation of stronger future market trend is strong. Recent market shocks, prices did not reduce how much, short-term favorable factors exist, spot rubber prices strong.