I. price trend
According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory listing price of oil-based glycol in North China on December 13 was 5683 yuan / ton, the highest price in nearly half a year, up 17.59% compared with last week, a rare increase in the near future.
| sulphamic acid |
At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 4790 yuan / ton. After a week’s continuous increase, the price on Friday was 5650 yuan / ton. Recently, the price exceeded 5500 yuan / ton for the first time, up 17.95%.
II. Analysis of influencing factors
As of December 10, the comprehensive daily operation rate of glycol unit is 65.64%, including 60.96% for oil plant, 64.28% for coal plant and 98.7% for methanol plant. In December, new ethylene glycol units of Rongxin chemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical will be put into operation. According to the plans announced at present, Rongxin chemical plant is planned to be put into operation in the near future. Hengli petrochemical plant is expected to be put into operation on December 20, and the effective capacity of domestic ethylene glycol will be further increased, at that time, the supply of ethylene glycol will continue to increase.
Downstream polyester enterprises began to announce their plans for production reduction and suspension before the Spring Festival. As of December 5, the 2.63 million T / a polyester plant has been put into maintenance, and 5.72 million T / a plant will be shut down for maintenance later, of which 1.84 million T / a plant will be maintained in December. As of the week of December 5, the cycle operation rate of domestic polyester chip is 87.75%, that of polyester staple fiber is 77.73%, that of polyester filament is 77.6%, and the cycle operation rate of polyester filament is 0.3%, 3.92% and 1.3% respectively.
| Thiourea |
As of Thursday, the glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 324100 tons, down 40300 tons from last Thursday and 4900 tons from Monday. Among them, 137100 tons were in Zhangjiagang, down 35300 tons from last Thursday; 40000 tons in Ningbo; 47000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu, down 30000 tons from last Thursday; 61000 tons in Taicang, down 16000 tons from last Thursday.
III. future forecast
According to glycol analysts from business news agency, at present, due to the delay in the arrival of cargo due to the closure of the Yangtze River channel, glycol port inventory continues to decline, and glycol spot price will continue to rise in the short term. However, due to the gradual improvement of the domestic glycol unit, a new unit will be put into operation soon, and the glycol supply will increase. The operating rate of downstream polyester plant is decreasing, and the purchasing demand is weakening. In addition, the delayed cargo will be concentrated in the port after that, and ethylene glycol will be accumulated in the main port of East China. Combined with the above factors, glycol price may fall after a period of higher.
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