I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on December 11, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 6450.00 yuan / ton.

II. Cause analysis

Products: as of December 11, the pet market in South China was in a narrow range of shocks, with the main negotiation price of 6450-6550 yuan / ton, and the pet market in East China was in a horizontal arrangement, with the main manufacturers’ quotation of 6550-6650 yuan / ton. The market trading atmosphere was light, with reference prices of 6500 yuan / ton for Jiangsu Baosheng, 6600 yuan / ton for Guangdong Taibao, 6650 yuan / ton for China Resources polyester bottles, 6600 yuan / ton for Henan Anhua, 6550 yuan / ton for Sanfangxiang polyester bottles, and 6550 yuan / ton for Hainan Yisheng 6550 yuan / ton.

Industry: on December 10, pet commodity index was 48.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.26% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.59% from 47.74, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

III. future forecast

According to pet analysts, the focus of business negotiation is expected to be low in the short term, with a cautious wait-and-see focus.

I. price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, at present, the price of bromine in China is stable, with an average price of 30777 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 30944 yuan / ton as of December 10, up 0.54% slightly, down 10.12% compared with the same period last year.

II. Cause analysis

Products: as the main production area of bromine market in China, Weifang has successively issued the notice of production suspension and production restriction. In addition, bromine enterprises in North China have been gradually stopped due to seasonal factors, and the supply of bromine market in China has been gradually tightened. At present, the quotation of enterprises is maintained between 30000-31000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 1 rising commodities, 2 falling commodities and 2 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities rising were bromine (0.36%); the main commodities falling were sulfur (- 3.30%) and light soda (- 1.06%). This week’s average was – 0.8%.

III. future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, although the spot supply of bromine market in China is declining gradually at present, the overall demand of downstream market is flat and the support for bromine price is insufficient. It is expected that bromine price will be stable in the short term.

I. price trend

The domestic market price of dimethyl ether (Henan) rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 2926.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 2946.67 yuan / ton, up 0.68% in the week, and the price was 23.6% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: on Tuesday, the trading atmosphere in the methyl ether (Henan) market improved. As of December 6, the units of Yutai, Henan lankaohuitong and Shanxi Lanhua science and Technology Co., Ltd. had been shut down for maintenance; the unit of dimethyl ether in Xinyuan of Henan Yima had failed, so the quotation was not offered temporarily. Shengxin, Qinyang, Henan Province, will not make an offer. The ex factory price of dimethyl ether of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 2970 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3200 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dezhou shengdeyuan company is 3050 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang is 3100 yuan / ton.

The operating rate of DME market this week is higher than that of last week. This week, the cost of methanol is more stable, with slight adjustment in some areas, and the civil use of liquefied gas continues to rise. The cost support is still available, which is good support for the market. Some enterprises in Henan province plan to store and park, and the overall supply of the market will be reduced, but at present, there is no substantial change in the terminal demand of DME market, which has some impact on the rise.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are WTI raw oil (5.91%), MTBE (5.62%) and gasoline (5.07%). There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, the first two products falling are liquefied natural gas (- 0.58%) and fuel oil (- 0.22%). This week’s average was up or down 1.71%.

III. future forecast

According to DME analysts of business club, although the demand for DME terminal continues to be poor, many plants have parking plans at present, the overall market supply has decreased, and the trend of liquefied gas is strong, so it is expected that there will be a slight increase in the future market in the short term.

This week, the domestic coking coal market is stable, with strong narrow range fluctuation and bottom characteristics. According to the monitoring of the business association, the mainstream quotation of the domestic coking coal market in the week of December 2-6 was stable, with slight rise in some areas, mainly due to the tight local supply caused by the accident maintenance and shutdown of coal mines, as well as the production decline caused by the environmental protection and production restriction, superimposed with the import coal policy restrictions and steel market table Now good news and so on boost, the coking coal market situation slightly warms up. At present, the price range including tax is 1380-1510 yuan / ton.

In terms of each region, the price of low sulfur main coking coal in Luliang and Liulin of Shanxi Province increased slightly, with a range of 20 yuan / ton. Due to frequent safety inspections in the near future, the output of local coal mines declined slightly, and the procurement enthusiasm of the downstream coking coal was good. In Linfen and Anze regions, individual low sulfur main coking transactions were stable, medium and small increases, and the overall operation of local coal enterprises was limited by environmental protection, with balanced production and sales, and little inventory. Shanxi and Hebei individual coking started the second round of coke rise, market sentiment improved. The short-term coking coal market is temporarily stable, and the price of some high-quality coal is firm.

According to coking coal analysts of business association, first of all, from the perspective of market supply, the supply is still positive in the short term. On the one hand, although the port coking coal volume has not declined significantly, customs clearance is still under pressure, and the supply of foreign coal is insufficient. In addition, from the perspective of the domestic market, in recent years, Shandong and other places have implemented production restriction, coke enterprises’ inventory has fallen continuously, the sentiment of the spot market has recovered, and the manufacturers have the willingness to replenish the inventory. But at the same time, the recent safety inspection factors lack of fundamental support for the market sentiment and price boost, so coking coal price is also difficult to do much. The business agency expects that the short-term fluctuation of coking coal is relatively strong. In the long run, it is difficult to maintain a high level due to the influence of industry surplus.

I. price trend

PVC market rose like a rainbow in November, and the market turned better. According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by calcium carbide method), on November 1, the price of PVC in China was 6650 yuan / ton, on November 28, the price of PVC in China was 6977.5 yuan / ton, up 4.92% in the month, up 8.80% year on year. On November 28, the PVC commodity index was 87.97, up 0.47 points from yesterday, down 12.03% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 50.97% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: Recently PVC futures continue to pull up, trend is strong, all the way red, support PVC spot market. At present, the PVC market 5 spot is scarce, and the prices of various manufacturers are rising. Since October, the decline rate and maintenance volume of PVC social inventory have exceeded the level of the same period last year, as well as the impact of the phenomenon of low-cost selling by manufacturers in the early stage, which prompted the downstream to actively take goods and accelerate the reduction of inventory, so that the current market supply is scarce. At this stage, some manufacturers often owe orders and do not accept new orders for the time being, that is, the situation of “you have money, I have no goods” appears frequently. Among them, there are some traders who take advantage of the opportunity to speculate, but the downstream factories are tired, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, there are many conflicting emotions, and the actual delivery and investment situation is flat. Now the North has entered the heating season, when the industry is in the off-season, the real estate, infrastructure and other end customers start to reduce, the demand for PVC is limited, and the later PVC maintenance enterprises gradually reduce, the supply increases, and the PVC market price may fall. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of November 28, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6650-7000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 7020-7100 yuan / ton, that of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 7050-7100 yuan / ton, and that of PVC common carbide in Guangzhou is 7240-7320 yuan / ton. Prices have risen to varying degrees.

Futures: the main 2001 contract of PVC futures rose in shock. As of November 28, it closed up 2.09% and closed up 6870 or 55 at night. The highest price in the session was 6905 yuan / ton, which set a new high in nearly half a year, temporarily ranking first in domestic commodity futures, and there is still the possibility of further exploration in the future.

Import and export: in October 2019, China imported a total of 546900 tons of PVC 45377 tons. From January to October 2019, China imported 546900 tons of PVC. In October 2019, 37900 tons of PVC will be exported, and 452300 tons of PVC will be exported from January to October.

Industrial chain: in the near future, crude oil prices have maintained a narrow range of strong shocks, and the overall market price of ethylene has declined first, then rose and then fell. In terms of calcium carbide, the operation of calcium carbide in Northwest China is normal, the price consolidation is stable, and the price of upstream raw materials is low. Compared with last year, the price has dropped a lot, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the future, the price of calcium carbide may be low. The import of PVC downstream products decreased, and the increase of export also supported the price.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on November 28, 2019, there were three kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices, including PVC (1.05%), LLDPE (0.45%) and styrene butadiene rubber (0.18%). A total of 1 commodity declined on a month on month basis, with natural rubber (- 0.17%) falling. The average price of this day is 0.09%.

III. future forecast

PVC analysts believe that: at present, the social inventory is still at a low level, the situation of spot shortage is difficult to change in the short term, and businesses have strong willingness to hold up prices, and it is expected that PVC prices will continue to rise in the short term.