1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 #)

2. Latest price (November 26, 2019): 11858.33 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton 。

3. Key points of analysis: drought in Sichuan and Yunnan, shortage of ore in Xinjiang, low silicon price in the early stage, production reduction and shutdown of some high-cost silicon plants, industry operation rate moving down, and domestic silicon metal production moving down. According to relevant data, China’s total silicon metal production from January to October 2019 was 1.86 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19%.

Since August, the silicon price has rebounded to the bottom, with an obvious upward trend. On the one hand, there are many price cuts in the early stage, and the cost factor has become the leading factor, and domestic manufacturers have strong willingness to stand up for the price; on the other hand, the effect of the dry season is obvious, and the silicon plant is expected to reduce production more intensively, and the market has some feedback.

On the demand side, domestic aluminum alloy industry, organosilicon industry and polysilicon industry are mainly in urgent need of procurement, with more early-stage procurement; the export is relatively flat, according to the customs data, China’s metal silicon export volume in October was 51300 tons, down 18.8% on a month on month basis, down 28.8% on a year-on-year basis.

4. Future forecast: the overall supply will move down, and the focus will be on the change of downstream demand. It is expected that the short-term operation of metallic silicon will be mainly strong.

I. price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, in late November, the market of PA66 in China was stable, and the spot price was basically sideways. As of November 22, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 23100.00 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week.

Analysis of influencing factors:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies in the upper reaches of PA66, the domestic adipic acid market has been adjusted in a narrow range in the near future, with little price change, but it is still not out of the downturn. Basically, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors that hinder adipic acid from rebounding, and the upstream raw material market has not shown any good. At present, the weak demand in the downstream of adipic acid, together with the increase of supply, leads to the increase of social inventory pressure. Since October, the market has been in the stage of de stocking. The effect of de stocking for two consecutive months is not obvious. The enterprise inventory and market inventory still maintain a high level, which is also an important reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, there is little change in the upstream cost side. Although pure benzene has ended the downward shock pattern and rebounded slightly, it has not brought much positive effect to the adipic acid market, which may be one of the reasons why the price of adipic acid remains weak. It is suggested to pay close attention to the effect of market de stocking and the follow-up situation of downstream demand. It is expected that the market will continue to be weak in the near future. At present, the market of PA66 in China is in horizontal consolidation and operation. In the aspect of spot supply, the downstream factories are still just in need of goods. The inquiry intention is relatively low, and the demand has not improved. The market is generally bullish, the mentality of the industry is limited, and the on-site trading is flat.

Future forecast:

Business analysts think: PA66 market is stable in the near future. The trend of adipic acid in the upstream is stable temporarily, which has limited support for PA66 cost surface. There is no improvement in the enthusiasm of downstream stock up, and replenishment is just needed. The market is generally buying gas, and the industry is mainly in wait-and-see attitude. PA66 is expected to be stable in the near future.

I. price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the spot price of ABS was stable in mid November, and the domestic market rose steadily last week. As of November 22, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13000.00 yuan / ton, basically the same as last week.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

Industry chain: in all upstream aspects of ABS, the market price of styrene continued to be weak this week, and the price was slightly reduced. In terms of inventory, port inventory remained high, supply of imported goods hit domestic supply, and styrene cash flow was significantly compressed. Businesses are active in shipping, let the profit go. But the market bearish sentiment spread, the downstream procurement follow-up was weak, and trading was blocked. The whole styrene market lacks strong support point, and it is expected that the price of styrene will continue the whole trend in the near future;

The stock market of acrylonitrile related products is weak in the near future. In terms of supply, we have kept a balance, and the mentality of the industry is relatively weak. This week, traders made cautious offers and made more trades with lower profits. Downstream bearish mood is obvious, factory replenishment enthusiasm is general, maintain just need to purchase. It is expected that the domestic acrylonitrile quotation will continue to narrow range finishing in the near future;

The domestic butadiene market is currently volatile. Last week, the positive supply side began to disappear, the supply of more goods in the yard began to improve, affecting the mentality of the industry, and some of the offers fell. Downstream factories have serious wait-and-see atmosphere and low enthusiasm for inquiry. It is expected that butadiene market will continue to be weak in the near future;

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the ABS market is mainly stable in mid November, with some brands slightly adjusted. Cost of the three upstream materials market is weak, poor support for cost. The operation space of traders is limited, the downstream factories just need to purchase, and the on-site trading is general. It is expected that ABS in China will continue to adjust and operate in a stable, medium and narrow range in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to cost and logistics.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of November 21, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4683.33 yuan / ton, and on November 18, the average price of enterprises was 4833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.1%. The domestic DMF market was stagnant, and the inventory pressure remained.

II. Market analysis

Products: as of November 21, the domestic DMF market was weak and volatile, the market was frozen and digested, the factory shipment was positive and stable, the raw material support surface was insufficient, the inventory pressure was on the high side, the downstream just needed procurement, the transaction atmosphere was general, the latest quotation of the enterprise, Zhangqiu Riyue 4600 yuan / ton, Luxi Chemical 4450 yuan / ton, BASF Yangzi 5200 yuan / ton, haohuajunhua 4800 yuan / ton, Yanchang Xinghua 4, Shaanxi Yanchang Xinghua 700 yuan / ton.

IV. future forecast

DMF analysts believe that in the short term, DMF market is mainly stable.

On November 20, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 20th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, the domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On November 19, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 4 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 765-767 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 786-788 US dollars / ton CFR China. More than 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The decline of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On November 19, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States fell sharply, to $55.21/barrel, or $1.84, while Brent crude oil futures price fell sharply, to $60.91/barrel, or $1.53. Due to the continuous signs of Sino-U.S. trade war, the oil price remained near the highest close in eight weeks, which put pressure on the fuel demand outlook. Crude oil futures in New York fell 0.1% to close near $58 a barrel on Friday, after closing at their highest level since September 23. In the week to November 12, oil short sellers cut their short position in West Texas Intermediate by 41%. Crude oil prices fell sharply and domestic p-xylene prices were stable. In recent years, the textile industry is in a volatile market, the PTA Market operating rate is rising, and the PTA price trend is slightly rising. The average price of the offer in East China is about 4750-4850 yuan / ton. As of the 19th, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 92.5%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 87.5%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general trading atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed up by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price The price of PTA in the downstream market remains low due to grid shock. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.