1、 Trend analysis

Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (August 24): 13533 yuan / ton

Analysis points: the domestic NBR market offer rose slightly, with the mainstream average price of 13583 yuan / ton, up 0.37% compared with the previous day. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic market price of nitrile rubber increased slightly. The mainstream price of NBR in Lanhua was 12000-12350 yuan / ton, 3305 was 12900-13100 yuan / ton, Nandi 1052 was 14800-15200 yuan / ton, and Russian nitrile 2665 was 12100-12300 yuan / ton.

The prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile continue to rise. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic butadiene price is 5387 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of acrylonitrile in Shanghai Secco is 7600 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast: raw materials go up, NBR market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been on the rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation method was 6766 yuan / ton (including tax), and rose to about 6833 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an increase of 0.99% during the week and 6.22% compared with the average price of 6433 yuan / ton in the same period of last month.

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on August 20 was 63.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 48.46% from the highest point of 123.67 (December 26, 2017), and increased by 24.54% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: this week, domestic maleic anhydride enterprises started smoothly as a whole, and the spot supply of the market was still tight. The mainstream manufacturers supplied more contract customers, and some enterprises were reluctant to sell. The rising sentiment in the industry was high. During the week, the increase in various regions was about 200-400 yuan / ton. At present, the solid anhydride in Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanxi and Hebei provinces was 6200 yuan / ton, 6350 yuan / ton, 6200 yuan / ton and 6200 yuan / ton, respectively The area solid anhydride is about 6100 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 6750 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the hydrobenzene market continues to weaken, the downstream market demand is poor, the port inventory in East China continues to rise, the pure benzene market pressure in East China remains, the basic hydrobenzene market is mainly under pressure, the tender price of crude benzene is slightly reduced, and the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene Enterprises remains unchanged; the overall inventory of downstream resin industry is high, and the downstream demand and high cost lead to the suspension of inspection of some enterprises, The market as a whole started on the low side, the industry’s negative factors.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of maleic anhydride products of the business agency, the current spot supply in the market continues to be tight, and there is no obvious increase in a short period of time. The downstream market demand is just needed, and the export order volume is fair. It is expected to maintain a strong operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of chloroform in Shandong has been running steadily. As of August 19, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 1910 yuan / ton, up 0.53% compared with the beginning of the month and 4.5% lower than the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong Province: 440000 tons / year, 90%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 70%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 70%

At present, the overall operating rate of chloroform enterprises in Shandong has gradually recovered, the enterprise quotation has been at a high level, the downstream market just needs to be weak, the industry supply and demand game, the production enterprise’s warehouse pressure gradually increased, the industry’s wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the intention of receiving goods is not high, and it is obviously bearish on future generations. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 1910 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In the upstream market, the methanol market was in a downward trend, and the news of enterprise maintenance and negative pressure reduction failed to effectively boost the market confidence. The overall transaction volume of the industry was still weak, at present, about 1620 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market was up and down, and the fluctuation was running, and the enterprise burden reduction led to a decline in market supply. However, the trading atmosphere in the industry was still weak, with the average price of 500-700 yuan / ton at present.

On the downstream side, the refrigerant market started not high, the demand of the industry declined significantly after the whole industry entered the off-season, and the negative factors in the industry were obvious; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started flat, and there was insufficient support for chloroform.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the game between supply and demand in the chloroform market in Shandong is obvious, and the number of new orders in the industry is relatively small. With the accumulation of enterprise inventory, it is expected that the market will be stable and wait-and-see.

The average price of TDI market in East China on the 18th was 14000.00 yuan / ton, up 10.53% compared with yesterday and 1.94% higher than last year, according to the data from the bulk list of business agencies. Last week, suppliers intensively released good news. TDI raised the weekly guidance price of manufacturers for three consecutive weeks, and the quotation of kosstro rose last Thursday, and Wanhua stopped receiving orders on Friday. In addition, the supply side intended to pull up, the market continued strongly this week. Wanhua chemical’s guiding price this week was increased by 2000 yuan to 15000 yuan / T. under the sharp pull-up of the factory guidance price, the dealers followed the factory’s offer. At present, the East China market is in a high consolidation level, and the enterprise’s offer remains at a high level. As of the 18th, the quotation of domestic goods with bill of lading in East China is 13500-14000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai is 13700-14500 yuan / ton.

According to TDI data analyst of business agency, at present, the domestic TDI market tends to be strong. After the factory guide price rises sharply, the dealers follow the factory’s offer to a high level. The downstream side resists the high price. The operator’s mentality is cautious, and the supplier’s support is obvious. In the short term, the domestic TDI market may be consolidated at a high level.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, acetic anhydride prices fell in August, acetic anhydride market fell sharply. As of August 17, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted was 5525.00 yuan / ton, down 7.14% from 5950.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 20.69% lower than that of the same period last year.

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart that the price of acetic acid dropped in August, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the driving force of acetic anhydride to rise was weakened, and the downward pressure was greater.

Methanol price trend

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart, the methanol market fell in August, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the acetic anhydride market was negative.

Market review and future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business agency, in August, the raw material price of acetic anhydride fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the support for the rise of acetic anhydride was insufficient, and the downward pressure was increased; the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply, and the downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing, so the future market of acetic anhydride was under great downward pressure, and the expected fluctuation of acetic anhydride market was expected.