1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 #)
2. Latest price (November 26, 2019): 11858.33 yuan / ton
The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:
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The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton 。
3. Key points of analysis: drought in Sichuan and Yunnan, shortage of ore in Xinjiang, low silicon price in the early stage, production reduction and shutdown of some high-cost silicon plants, industry operation rate moving down, and domestic silicon metal production moving down. According to relevant data, China’s total silicon metal production from January to October 2019 was 1.86 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19%.
Since August, the silicon price has rebounded to the bottom, with an obvious upward trend. On the one hand, there are many price cuts in the early stage, and the cost factor has become the leading factor, and domestic manufacturers have strong willingness to stand up for the price; on the other hand, the effect of the dry season is obvious, and the silicon plant is expected to reduce production more intensively, and the market has some feedback.
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On the demand side, domestic aluminum alloy industry, organosilicon industry and polysilicon industry are mainly in urgent need of procurement, with more early-stage procurement; the export is relatively flat, according to the customs data, China’s metal silicon export volume in October was 51300 tons, down 18.8% on a month on month basis, down 28.8% on a year-on-year basis.
4. Future forecast: the overall supply will move down, and the focus will be on the change of downstream demand. It is expected that the short-term operation of metallic silicon will be mainly strong.
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