1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda this week is mainly stable. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week to the weekend is about 502.5 yuan / ton. The price remains stable, down 29.47% from the same period last year. On June 15, the caustic soda commodity index was 72.30, the same as yesterday, 65.05% lower than 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 6.91% higher than 67.63, the lowest point on May 10, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, 32% ionic membrane alkali: 420-550 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 1400-1550 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market (converted into 100 yuan), 710-740 yuan / ton in Guangdong market. In terms of flake alkali, the factory price of flake alkali was stable at the beginning of the week. Supported by the good maintenance of some manufacturers, the quotation of flake alkali market maintained stable operation. Quotation of flake alkali: 1900-1950 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, 2150-2200 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 2180-2200 yuan / ton in East China market, 1600-1700 yuan / ton in Xinjiang market.

Raw materials: affected by the low price increase of sea salt and lake salt, the delivery of well salt is not good, and some well salt enterprises have maintained or limited production since the end of May. In June, the maintenance of some two soda enterprises was completed, and the purchase of industrial salt by downstream soda enterprises may increase. However, due to the impact of high inventory, the supply and demand of raw salt and soda are still in a state of contradiction, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

Demand: at present, about 76% of domestic alumina is under construction, and the downstream of papermaking, printing and dyeing, etc. needs to maintain rigid procurement. Caustic soda plant maintenance good and spot not much to continue to support the market. On the macro level, tank car accidents or domestic hazardous chemicals production, transportation and other aspects were strictly inspected, and small, medium and micro downstream enterprises started or were affected. Supply and demand have not changed much for the time being.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 23rd week of 2020 (6.8-6.12), there are 0 rising commodities, 2 falling commodities and 3 rising and falling commodities in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 1.49%) and light soda ash (- 1.32%). This week’s average was – 0.56%.

According to the analysts of business association, the overall demand of domestic caustic soda market is general, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong Province is stable. Alumina, papermaking and printing mostly purchase caustic soda on demand. Due to the price of liquid caustic soda stuck in the cost line, it is expected that the domestic caustic soda market is still weak and stable, and the overall adjustment is limited.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China at the beginning of this week was 1433 yuan / ton, while the average price at the weekend was 1450 yuan / ton, up 1.16%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of concentrated nitric acid was basically stable, with a slight increase in some parts. The quotation of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1250-1300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week; the quotation of Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1580 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week; the quotation of Anhui Jinhe Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1300-1350 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton higher than last week; the quotation of Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1700 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week; the demand for nitric acid was flat compared with last week Light, partial trading is OK.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the upstream liquid ammonia fell 5.95% this week, limiting the space for nitric acid price to rise; the downstream aniline, according to the data of the business agency’s bulk list, slightly increased the price of aniline on Wednesday. On June 5, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4400-4490 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4500-4820 yuan / ton; on June 12, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4500-4590 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4500-4590 yuan / ton The price of aniline is 4600-4820 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton or 2.26% compared with last week, boosting the price of nitric acid; the price of downstream TDI is temporarily stable this week.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid analysts predict that the price rise of nitric acid will be blocked due to the drag of raw material liquid ammonia.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market rebounded after a continuous decline. As of June 12, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2223 yuan / ton, 2.62% higher than the average price of 2166 yuan / ton on June 9, and 13.15% lower than the same period last month. At present, there are 2200-2250 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2150-2200 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2200-2300 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2000 yuan / ton in Henan, 2200-2250 yuan / ton in Hebei and 1900 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Production trends of plant capacity (10000 tons / year)

Normal production of Yankuang Guotai 110

Hualu Hengsheng 50 normal production

Yangzi BP 506.6 equipment maintenance about 10

About 70% of Celanese 120

Jiangsu Thorpe 120 normal production

Hebei Jiantao 50 normal production

Tianjin Bohua 35 normal production

Henan Shunda 40 normal production

Henan Longyu 50 6.11 maintenance for about one week

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi extended maintenance for more than one month from May 6, 2015

Shanghai Huayi 70.5.23 parking and maintenance for about 20 days

About 80% of Anhui Huayi construction started

Dalian Hengli 35 normal production

The main reason for the price increase of acetic acid is the decrease of spot supply caused by the overhaul of the enterprise. Last weekend, Nanjing Yangzi BP plant was overhauled, and the spot supply in East China fell to a certain extent. The enterprises had more inventory and shipped out, and the market demand turned to the surrounding areas. The overall market operating rate was about 70%. The enterprise inventory pressure was effectively relieved. Some low-priced enterprises rose randomly and tentatively. Downstream and traders did not buy up or down. The trading atmosphere in the industry was good and the buying was positive. Affected by the poor start-up of foreign terminals, the acetic acid export end is expected to decline, and the price is weak. At present, the Asian market is about 265-320 US dollars / ton, the European market is about 550 euros / ton, and the North American market is about 445 US dollars / ton.

Secondly, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated upward. Some manufacturers in Northwest China are optimistic about it. The freight is high, and the cost of traders is increasing. In addition, the center of gravity of the downstream enterprises such as Lubei refinery is rising. Multiple advantages lead to the rebound of methanol market, and the cost is well supported by the price of acetic acid.

On the other hand, the downstream industries such as vinyl acetate and acetate are driven by the upward trend of the raw material acetic acid market, but the overall construction is flat, the actual demand for acetic acid is limited, the terminal market just needs to be weak and stable, the market transaction atmosphere is flat, and the situation that the supply exceeds the demand is difficult to change.

According to the acetic acid analyst of the business association, in the near future, Huayi in Shanghai, Yanchang in Shaanxi and BP in Yangzi will resume production one after another, and the long-term supply of the market is expected to be greatly improved; the downstream market is still just short of demand, which will focus on digesting contracts in a short time, and the volume of new single transactions will be greatly reduced. There is limited space for the price of acetic acid to rise before the complete recovery of acetic acid production enterprises.

Methanol market in China rebounded. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of June 9, the market price of methanol in China was 1650 yuan / ton, down 4.49% month on month and 24.45% year on year.

The main reasons for this rebound are as follows: some manufacturers in Northwest China are optimistic and firm; freight is high, the cost of traders is increased; the center of receiving goods of downstream enterprises such as Lubei refinery is higher. The price of methanol in Northwest China rose partially, the market atmosphere was good, the main stream of Guanzhong rose to 1390-1500 yuan / ton, the price of goods received in Shandong and other provinces rose with the boost of futures, the downstream and traders entered the market actively to replenish goods, the trading atmosphere was active, and the main factories in Gansu had stopped selling.

In terms of industrial chain, formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market rose. Methanol in the upper reaches of Hebei and Henan is rising strongly, and local formaldehyde enterprises are passively rising. Hebei Province increased 20 yuan / ton to 750-770 yuan / ton spot exchange, while Henan Province increased 10 yuan / ton to 840 yuan / ton spot exchange. On site terminal demand has not improved, and the factory mostly said that the delivery atmosphere is light and the demand side support is limited.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is active. After the shutdown of Nanjing unit, the inventory delivery contract is the main part, and the spot demand is distributed to the surrounding manufacturers to relieve the inventory pressure of the surrounding manufacturers. The market supply is gradually tight, and the low-end suppliers offer to make up for the increase, driving the market transaction price slightly higher. Downstream and traders just need to buy in the near future, overlapping market is good support, acetic acid market is optimistic at present. However, Nanjing BP, Shanghai Huayi and Shaanxi Yanchang acetic acid plant are expected to recover next week, and the overall growth of acetic acid market is expected to be limited within this week.

Dimethyl ether: the transaction price of domestic dimethyl ether Market is up and down, and the transaction atmosphere is general. The quotation of mainstream enterprises in main production areas of Henan Province refers to 2130-2210 yuan / ton, of which BMW price rises while Yongcheng price falls. Due to the relatively serious cost inversion, most enterprises said they would not lower their offers in the near future.

In the future, there are some differences in the market trend of methanol in various regions. According to the methanol analysts of the business association, the short-term domestic methanol market is mainly consolidated.

Data shows that from April to June, the price of natural rubber has fluctuated all the way up. As of June 5, the domestic all latex (Baodao) in East China has increased by 11.58%.

Under the influence of drought, insect disaster, bad market demand caused by special situation, transportation conditions and low rubber price, the new rubber cutting conditions in Yunnan and Hainan are insufficient and the output is very small. Especially in Banna, Yunnan Province, since May 20, the local spot supply of natural rubber is in short supply. All brands of natural rubber such as scr10, meridian tire rubber 9710 and Yunxiang latex are in short supply. The market price is soaring, and the prices of scr10 and 9710 are still high. Up to now, the local spot rubber shortage situation continues. According to the local traders, in the past, the import index of local natural rubber was usually released by the Ministry of Commerce in April. In 2020, due to the special situation, the import index has not been opened up yet. The local old rubber is out of stock, the cutting volume of new rubber is small, the raw rubber is lack, and the natural finished rubber is impossible to talk about. Although the trend of different brands of local rubber prices is slightly different, there is no doubt that the local rubber prices are very strong.

From April to June, the price trend of Yunnan Banna cloud like emulsion

Data shows that the trend of Yunnan Banna cloud like milk from April to June has been fluctuating and rising. Among them, on April 1, the main quotation of Yunnan cloud elephant was about 9300 yuan / ton, and on June 5, the main quotation was 10200 yuan / ton, an increase of about 11.83%.

At present, under the influence of multiple factors such as weather, the new rubber output is small and the new rubber market is delayed again and again, but the downstream demand is less than that of previous years. The existing Tianjiao inventory in Qingdao and Shanghai is still high, and the trend of Tianjiao region is the same. From April to June, it has been surging up

To sum up, a large number of domestic new rubber is now expected to appear in late June. During this period, it mainly depends on how much the improvement of downstream consumption drives the tire enterprises, and pays attention to the rubber import in Southeast Asia, which will be higher in the short term. However, once a large area is cut and the import indicators are lowered, the new rubber volume and inventory increase, then the Tianjiao market will be under pressure rapidly. If this period of time, the shortage of goods in Banna continues, its price will remain very strong.