According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic carbon black quoted 7,000 yuan/ton on September 30, with a small fluctuation. Due to the reduction of downstream demand and the off-season of downstream demand in July and August, the trend of carbon black easy to fall and difficult to rise will continue, and the market of carbon black will remain stable in the third quarter.

Market quotation

Domestic carbon black sales are still acceptable, the quotation is still mainly stable. Upstream carbon black raw oil is affected by the shrinkage of coking industry capacity, and its price keeps running at a high level all the time. Comprehensive factors lead to the decline of the gross interest rate of carbon black, the main product of the company, and the quarterly operating profit of the enterprise is compressed. Under the high pressure of national environmental protection supervision, the start-up rate of carbon black industry is limited and supply shrinks. The price of coal tar, the main raw material, remains high, which provides a solid support for the price of carbon black. Domestic passenger car sales have recovered and car ownership has increased steadily. The demand for carbon black is driven by the boom of tire market. Domestic carbon black enterprises are expected to follow the trend of rising prices.

Industry dynamics

The carbon black branch of the China Rubber Industry Association issued the carbon black industry self-discipline proposal. The proposal stated that since the second half of last year, the carbon black industry has experienced unprecedented difficulties, and there has been a situation of loss in the whole industry. In order to ensure the normal production and operation of the carbon black industry, it is advocated that every enterprise consciously limit its production and limit production. According to market demand, it will limit production 10%- on the basis of the original output. 20%, ensure market supply and demand balance; stabilize the carbon black raw oil market, do not participate in promoting bad competition behavior of raw material oil prices; stabilize market sales, and sell according to reasonable profit margins; for export to the international market, China’s carbon black also requires undisorderly competition.

Future market forecast: Carbon black market is expected to rebound in the future stable market.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of asphalt market rose in September. At the end of the month, the price of asphalt was 3694 yuan/ton, which was 4.19% higher than that of 3546 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In September, the market demand of East China asphalt was tight, and the market price was rising. The market demand of asphalt in other areas was normal. However, the international oil price soared in the middle of the year, which directly raised the domestic market price of asphalt.

Industry Chain: The Sino-US trade war continued at the beginning of this month with a weak overall atmosphere in the crude oil market. However, in Russia, the market bullish sentiment became stronger as the situation in the United States and Iran deteriorated. Saudi Arabia’s oil equipment was attacked in mid-month. After losing 5.7 million barrels per day of production, the market panicked up nearly 15%, but Saudi Arabia said oil production would resume in a short time and international oil prices would gradually fall in the latter half of the month.

Asphalt market: In September, the overall demand of domestic asphalt market realized smoothly, while demand in East China showed strong performance. In Northeast China, social inventory declined and refinery shipments began to improve; in Shandong and North China, due to the influence of National Day holidays and polluted weather, asphalt transportation and terminal projects were restricted, and the overall demand for asphalt was not good. Demand performance in East China is good, asphalt inventory in major refineries has decreased significantly, Sinopec has continuously raised settlement prices in the latter half of the year, and a large number of foreign resources have flowed into East China. In South and Southwest China, the demand has not changed significantly, and the market supply is still abundant. Driven by strong demand in East China and soaring crude oil prices in mid-September, domestic asphalt market prices went on as a whole.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to Lu Xingjun, asphalt analyst of business association, the international crude oil market is expected to be stable in October, and the price of asphalt is expected to be stable in October due to the lifting of the ban on asphalt demand during the National Day holiday.

In September, the price of magnesium ingots went down step by step. According to the data of business associations, the average market price of magnesium ingots (9990) as of September 27 was 15066.67 yuan/ton, down 3.62% from the average price of 15633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (09.01). At present, the price is at the annual trough.

Since late March, the price of magnesium ingots has been on the downward trend as a whole. On the one hand, based on the increase of domestic production, according to relevant data, 479.7 million tons of magnesium were produced by the Communist Party of China from January to July, an increase of 9.65% over the same period of last year. Among them, the cumulative production in Shaanxi is 288,000 tons, an increase of 14.96% year on year; the cumulative production in Shanxi is 713,000 tons, an increase of 32.55% year on year; and the cumulative production in Ningxia is 26,000 tons, a decrease of 45.31% year on year. On the other hand, because of the low price of aluminum ingot, the competitive substitution advantage of low-end ordinary products of magnesium alloys is small.

As a major producer of magnesium products, the current export situation is running well. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 268,500 tons of magnesium products in January-July, up 17.85% year-on-year, with a cumulative amount of $698 million, up 24.35% year-on-year. Among them, 147,700 tons of magnesium ingots were exported, an increase of 27.41%, 63,900 tons of magnesium alloys were exported, an increase of 0.41%, and 52,500 tons of magnesium powder were exported, an increase of 17.33%.

At present, near the National Day holiday, just need to purchase spare goods, the overall market is weak, the main production area magnesium enterprises ex-factory price in 14800-15000 yuan/ton, low-cost supply is less than the previous few days, currently mainly smooth operation.

With the coming of the festival mode, it is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will run smoothly in the near future. Later, we will pay attention to the actual market transactions and the maintenance of magnesium plants.

Price trends:

Since September, the domestic caustic soda market has rebounded, and the atmosphere of price increase is strong. So far, it has seen the largest increase this year, with an overall line of 150-300 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business associations in Shandong, the price of caustic soda in Shandong is on the whole going, up to 850 yuan per ton in September, up by 20.57%.

Products: At present, caustic soda in most areas is still on the upward trend. Manufacturers stop production and limit production more, mainstream factories have overall low inventory. For business associations, 32% of ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is above 840 yuan/ton, 50% of ionic membrane caustic soda mainstream transaction price rises to 1410-1430 yuan/ton; for Jiangsu, 200 yuan/ton or so this month, 3. The mainstream transaction price of 2% ionic membrane alkali has risen to 900-950 yuan/ton, and that of 50% ionic membrane alkali has risen to 1450-1500 yuan/ton. This month, the price of 32% ionic membrane alkali purchased by Weiqiao has risen by 100 yuan/ton to 750 yuan/ton, which has a great impact on the local area.

Up to now, the closing of the national market offers are as follows:

Regional Specification Price Increase and Decline
32% Ionic Membrane Base 950+150 in Hebei Province
32% ionic membrane base 950 + 80 in Northeast China
32% ionic membrane base 850 + 180 in Shandong area
32% ionic membrane base 920 + 200 in Jiangsu area
32% ionic membrane base 980 + 250 in Zhejiang area
32% ionic membrane alkali 900 + 180 in Anhui area
Since September, the caustic soda market has gone up a large margin, the main reasons are as follows:

1. The National Day is approaching. There are many rumors that the chlor-alkali industry in North China is going to stop work. At present, Shandong has limited production, no stock of industrial caustic soda is not guaranteed, and more enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are shut down. After the 25th, the liquid chlorine embargo in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang and North China, as well as downstream and traders, will be imposed. In order to prevent the alkali plant from being restricted by liquid chlorine embargo, goods were taken one after another.

2. After the notification of the liquid chlorine embargo which began on September 7 in Jiangsu, the atmosphere of liquid chlorine became tense, and the Anbang load dropped to 30%. It is known that some of the liquid chlorine in Jiangsu has also been sent to Anhui and Zhejiang outside the province. The news of the liquid chlorine embargo is also one of the factors stimulating the increase in alkali prices.

3. The purchase price of Weiqiao alumina has been stable for more than five months. The manufacturers have increased retail prices on National Day to stimulate Weiqiao’s price increase, and the main factories in Shandong Province are not satisfied with the start of construction after the early typhoon. The purchase support of Weiqiao alumina and the inventory have been in a controllable level. After the increase of the purchase price of Weiqiao, the credit of the traders has been greatly boosted. Heart.

Business analysts believe that the market price of liquid alkali in North China will maintain a high level before National Day, and the market performance in East China and Henan is also relatively good, while the domestic market of liquid chlorine will mostly maintain a steady trend. 32% ionic membrane alkali in Shandong province 840-880 yuan/ton. But in October, the environmental protection inspection will be strengthened, the whole industrial chain of the manufacturer will be restricted, the downstream parts of the north and the main alumina will also face production reduction, a large number of sea alkali will arrive in the South during the National Day, low-cost sea alkali will stimulate the southern liquid alkali market, the national market after the National Day or will have a greater impact in the future. End price may not be guaranteed.

I. Trend analysis

As shown in the chart above, the domestic copper price fell slightly this week, with the average domestic spot copper price of 47815 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 47403.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 0.86%, 1.57% from the beginning of the year and 5.14% from the year before.

II. Market Analysis

Copper futures and Lun Copper prices: Shanghai Copper Index opened 47,950 yuan earlier this week, then went down under pressure, and rose 47,000 yuan at the end of the week to stabilize the shock. This week, it closed at 47,130 yuan, a decline of 0.78%. LME copper in March fell from a high of $5964.5 to $5776 at the beginning of this week, with a 2.22% drop in the end of the week closing at $5833.5.

On the supply side, data released Wednesday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) showed a shortage of 27,000 tons in the global copper market from January to July 2019 and a global mine copper output of 11.62 million tons from January to July 2019, 0.5% lower than the same period last year. From January to July 2019, the global output of refined copper was 13.26 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% over the same period last year. The output of India and Chile decreased significantly, by 96,000 tons and 19,000 tons, respectively. In July 2019, the global output of refined copper was 1.991 million tons.

Consumption: From January to July 2019, global copper consumption was 13.29 million tons, compared with 13.78 million tons in the same period last year. From January to July 2019, China’s apparent demand was 6.754 million tons, down 3.9% from the same period last year. The output of the 28 EU countries fell 2.6% and the demand was 1.85 million tons, down 6.0% year-on-year. In July 2019, consumption was 1.94 million tons.

In terms of inventory, inventory at the end of July was 144,000 tons higher than that at the end of December 2018. This increase includes 156,000 tons net shipment to LME warehouse and 31,000 tons net shipment to Shanghai warehouse. COMEX copper stocks fell 65,000 tons in the first seven months of this year.

On the macro level, the domestic economic data released this week are generally poor, coupled with the worries about stagflation caused by the surge in crude oil prices over the weekend, and Sino-US trade relations remain unclear.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In summary, the copper analysts of Shangshu Nonferrous Branch believe that the supply side is tight to support the copper price. Although the copper market fundamentals are expected to improve, they still need to wait for time. The short-term spot market is tightly balanced, and there are still opportunities to boost copper prices in the context of late demand expectations and monetary easing. The short-term copper market maintains a narrow fluctuation trend.