I. Trend analysis
As shown in the chart above, the domestic copper price fell slightly this week, with the average domestic spot copper price of 47815 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 47403.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 0.86%, 1.57% from the beginning of the year and 5.14% from the year before.
II. Market Analysis
| Thiourea dioxide |
Copper futures and Lun Copper prices: Shanghai Copper Index opened 47,950 yuan earlier this week, then went down under pressure, and rose 47,000 yuan at the end of the week to stabilize the shock. This week, it closed at 47,130 yuan, a decline of 0.78%. LME copper in March fell from a high of $5964.5 to $5776 at the beginning of this week, with a 2.22% drop in the end of the week closing at $5833.5.
On the supply side, data released Wednesday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) showed a shortage of 27,000 tons in the global copper market from January to July 2019 and a global mine copper output of 11.62 million tons from January to July 2019, 0.5% lower than the same period last year. From January to July 2019, the global output of refined copper was 13.26 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% over the same period last year. The output of India and Chile decreased significantly, by 96,000 tons and 19,000 tons, respectively. In July 2019, the global output of refined copper was 1.991 million tons.
Consumption: From January to July 2019, global copper consumption was 13.29 million tons, compared with 13.78 million tons in the same period last year. From January to July 2019, China’s apparent demand was 6.754 million tons, down 3.9% from the same period last year. The output of the 28 EU countries fell 2.6% and the demand was 1.85 million tons, down 6.0% year-on-year. In July 2019, consumption was 1.94 million tons.
| Thiourea |
In terms of inventory, inventory at the end of July was 144,000 tons higher than that at the end of December 2018. This increase includes 156,000 tons net shipment to LME warehouse and 31,000 tons net shipment to Shanghai warehouse. COMEX copper stocks fell 65,000 tons in the first seven months of this year.
On the macro level, the domestic economic data released this week are generally poor, coupled with the worries about stagflation caused by the surge in crude oil prices over the weekend, and Sino-US trade relations remain unclear.
3. Prospects for the Future Market
In summary, the copper analysts of Shangshu Nonferrous Branch believe that the supply side is tight to support the copper price. Although the copper market fundamentals are expected to improve, they still need to wait for time. The short-term spot market is tightly balanced, and there are still opportunities to boost copper prices in the context of late demand expectations and monetary easing. The short-term copper market maintains a narrow fluctuation trend.
| http://www.pivalicacid.com |