On July 25, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 25th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

The recent domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, up to 25 days, the market price is 1756.67 yuan/ton. The decline of nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate keeps low. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is slightly declining, the market performance is general, and the market transaction is still acceptable, mainly by the upstream transaction. The impact of this increase, transaction remains stable, most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure has eased slightly compared with the previous period, and some of the overhauls are the main ones. The supply performance of most manufacturers in North China is still acceptable. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained at around 3300 yuan/ton. The price quoted by manufacturers in Northwest China is between 2800 yuan/ton and 3000 yuan/ton. The normal shipment of manufacturers is downstream. Reasonable purchasing of manufacturers and the downward trend of raw material prices have a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, cobalt prices began to recover slightly in mid-July. After several consecutive days of rising, cobalt prices fell on the 23rd, and cobalt prices stopped falling and adjusted. On July 11, the cobalt price reached a cyclical low of 216166.67 yuan/ton, and then rose steadily, reaching a cyclical high of 221500.00 yuan/ton by July 21, an increase of 2.47%. After that, the cobalt price declined steadily, with the cobalt price falling by 1.20% on July 23 at 218833.33 yuan/ton. Cobalt prices rose first and then fell, and the cobalt market entered a period of shock adjustment.

II. Market Analysis

International Cobalt Price

As can be seen from the table, MB cobalt price in the international market fell this week, but the decline was reduced. The lowest price of cobalt slowed down obviously, and the lowest price of cobalt tended to be stable. Cobalt has little room to fall in the future market, falling or subject to greater resistance.

From the cobalt price chart of LME market since June, we can see that the recent cobalt price shock adjustment. Cobalt prices in the bottom range of shocks adjustment, the cobalt market showed a downward trend unable to rise powerless.

Cobalt Price Index Approaching Historic Low

On July 23, the Cobalt Commodity Index was 78.72, down 0.96 points from yesterday, down 67.05% from the cyclical peak of 238.91 points (2018-04-15), and up 12.71% from the lowest point of 69.84 on July 05, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date). The commodity index is infinitely close to the historical lowest price in the cycle, and from the historical record of cobalt price, the cobalt price has maintained at about 200,000 yuan/ton for a long time, and it is unlikely that the cobalt price will fall below the historical lowest price in the near future. Cobalt prices have little room to fall.

5G Mobile Phone Release or Switch Storm

According to the official information of China Quality Certification Center, 8 5G mobile phones have been certified by China Quality 3C. At present, 5G mobile phone manufacturers with three major certificates are making final preparations, the first wave of domestic 5G mobile phone shipment is imminent. ZTE 5G mobile phone officially opened on July 23, Huawei will release its 5G mobile phone on July 26, and other mobile phone manufacturers will release their own brand 5G mobile phone in the near future. With the advent of 5G era, the storm of changing planes is bound to come. The demand for cobalt for changing planes will be greatly increased, which is obviously beneficial to the cobalt market. However, due to the recent launch of 5G mobile phones, how the market reaction remains to be investigated, whether it can trigger the switching storm still needs time to test, the demand of cobalt market will not improve significantly in the near future, and the demand of cobalt market will not change much in the near future.

3. Future prospects:

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for business associations, the cobalt Market in China has recently fallen to a historic low, and the cobalt price hovered near the average price of cobalt before the 16-year sharp rise in cobalt price. At this stage, there is little room for cobalt price to fall. From the perspective of international cobalt prices, the decline of cobalt prices has weakened, and cobalt prices are in a period of shock adjustment. From the downstream demand, 5G mobile phone or cobalt market demand has a certain advantage, but now the mobile phone market performance is not clear, when the change storm will come is difficult to predict, cobalt market demand is difficult to change dramatically in the near future, cobalt market has insufficient momentum to rise. Generally speaking, the cobalt market has little room to fall in the near future, and it is incompetent to fall; the demand of cobalt market has not improved significantly, and the momentum of increase is not strong. Cobalt price fluctuation adjustment is forecasted.

On July 23, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15) in the cycle, and 33.79% higher than the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 23rd, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend has been slightly lower, up to 23 days, the market price is 1756.67 yuan/ton. The declining trend of nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate keeps low. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is rising slightly, the market performance is general, and the market turnover is still acceptable. The impact of increased travel costs, transaction stability, the majority of manufacturers inventory pressure slightly eased compared with the previous period, some maintenance-oriented, most manufacturers in North China supply performance is still acceptable, manufacturers in the northern region quoted price maintained in 3300 yuan/ton, northwest region quoted price in 2800-3000 yuan/ton, the normal shipment of manufacturers, Reasonable purchasing of downstream manufacturers and rising prices of raw materials in the upstream have a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

The fluorite commodity index on July 22 was 110.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.30% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 124.61% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the average domestic fluorite price is 3150 yuan/ton as of 22 days. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is rising recently. For the fluorite market, the price trend of fluorite market is on demand. Rise. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 22nd, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3300 yuan/ton.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite is temporarily stable. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12080 yuan/ton as of 22. The fluctuation of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite has weakened and the price of fluorite has oscillated. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal. Fluorite prices are stable temporarily. Business analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market price may remain volatile.

Price trends

According to statistics, this week’s domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene showed a temporary steady trend, with an average weekend price of 7,000 yuan/ton, a temporary steady trend compared with the price of 7,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 7.89% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is stable, the domestic PX start-up rate maintains more than 70%, Huizhou refining and chemical plant runs steadily, Fuhaichuang plant starts a line, Pengzhou Petrochemical plant runs steadily, Yangtze Petrochemical PX plant runs normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant runs smoothly, Qingdao Lidong plant runs at full load, Qi Luzhou Petrochemical Unit runs steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Unit starts about 50%, Hengli Petrochemical Unit runs normally, domestic p-xylene supply is normal, recent international crude oil prices rise, domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of paraxylene plant in Asia is over 70% this week. The supply of PX in Asia is normal. The price of PX external market declined this week. By the end of the week, the closing price of paraxylene market in Asia was 832-834 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 851-853 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The closing price of PX external market was lower. The decline has brought some negative effects to the domestic market, and the price trend of domestic PX market is temporarily stable.

Industry Chain: Domestic crude oil price closed down this week. As of 18 days, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $55.30 per barrel, Brent crude oil futures price was $61.93 per barrel. This week, crude oil closed down sharply, losing some cost support for downstream petrochemical products. The price of PX market was temporarily stable. This week, PTA downstream market price trend slightly declined, this week’s decline was 0.86%. By the end of the weekend, East China PTA market talks were around 6450-6550 yuan self-lifting. Upstream raw material PX market price trend was stable. This week PTA plant start-up rate maintained about 90%, downstream polyester plant start-up rate about 86%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile start-up rate maintained 72%. About, downstream PTA and polyester products start-up rate maintained high, PTA price decline has a negative effect on the market price of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

Industry: This week, the textile industry has been in a turbulent situation, with high start-up rate, low crude oil prices and stable raw material PX market.

3. Future market forecast:

Chen Ling, an analyst with business association PX, believes that the recent decline in crude oil prices, coupled with a slight decline in PTA market prices, has little change in downstream textile industry startup rate and normal domestic PX market supply. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile next week.