I. Trend analysis
According to the monitoring data of business associations, cobalt prices began to recover slightly in mid-July. After several consecutive days of rising, cobalt prices fell on the 23rd, and cobalt prices stopped falling and adjusted. On July 11, the cobalt price reached a cyclical low of 216166.67 yuan/ton, and then rose steadily, reaching a cyclical high of 221500.00 yuan/ton by July 21, an increase of 2.47%. After that, the cobalt price declined steadily, with the cobalt price falling by 1.20% on July 23 at 218833.33 yuan/ton. Cobalt prices rose first and then fell, and the cobalt market entered a period of shock adjustment.
| http://www.pivalicacid.com |
II. Market Analysis
International Cobalt Price
As can be seen from the table, MB cobalt price in the international market fell this week, but the decline was reduced. The lowest price of cobalt slowed down obviously, and the lowest price of cobalt tended to be stable. Cobalt has little room to fall in the future market, falling or subject to greater resistance.
From the cobalt price chart of LME market since June, we can see that the recent cobalt price shock adjustment. Cobalt prices in the bottom range of shocks adjustment, the cobalt market showed a downward trend unable to rise powerless.
Cobalt Price Index Approaching Historic Low
On July 23, the Cobalt Commodity Index was 78.72, down 0.96 points from yesterday, down 67.05% from the cyclical peak of 238.91 points (2018-04-15), and up 12.71% from the lowest point of 69.84 on July 05, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date). The commodity index is infinitely close to the historical lowest price in the cycle, and from the historical record of cobalt price, the cobalt price has maintained at about 200,000 yuan/ton for a long time, and it is unlikely that the cobalt price will fall below the historical lowest price in the near future. Cobalt prices have little room to fall.
5G Mobile Phone Release or Switch Storm
| Thiourea |
According to the official information of China Quality Certification Center, 8 5G mobile phones have been certified by China Quality 3C. At present, 5G mobile phone manufacturers with three major certificates are making final preparations, the first wave of domestic 5G mobile phone shipment is imminent. ZTE 5G mobile phone officially opened on July 23, Huawei will release its 5G mobile phone on July 26, and other mobile phone manufacturers will release their own brand 5G mobile phone in the near future. With the advent of 5G era, the storm of changing planes is bound to come. The demand for cobalt for changing planes will be greatly increased, which is obviously beneficial to the cobalt market. However, due to the recent launch of 5G mobile phones, how the market reaction remains to be investigated, whether it can trigger the switching storm still needs time to test, the demand of cobalt market will not improve significantly in the near future, and the demand of cobalt market will not change much in the near future.
3. Future prospects:
| Magnesium sulphate |
According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for business associations, the cobalt Market in China has recently fallen to a historic low, and the cobalt price hovered near the average price of cobalt before the 16-year sharp rise in cobalt price. At this stage, there is little room for cobalt price to fall. From the perspective of international cobalt prices, the decline of cobalt prices has weakened, and cobalt prices are in a period of shock adjustment. From the downstream demand, 5G mobile phone or cobalt market demand has a certain advantage, but now the mobile phone market performance is not clear, when the change storm will come is difficult to predict, cobalt market demand is difficult to change dramatically in the near future, cobalt market has insufficient momentum to rise. Generally speaking, the cobalt market has little room to fall in the near future, and it is incompetent to fall; the demand of cobalt market has not improved significantly, and the momentum of increase is not strong. Cobalt price fluctuation adjustment is forecasted.