According to statistics released by Poland’s Central Bureau of Statistics on the output of major industrial products, in 2018 Poland’s national coal output was 122 million tons, down 3.7% from the same period last year. Among them, hard coal is 63.649 million tons, down 3.3% year-on-year; lignite is 58.571 million tons, down 4.2% year-on-year.

In January 2019, Poland’s coal output was 10.359 million tons, an increase of 2.7% over the same period last year. Among them, 5.298 million tons of hard coal increased by 2.2% and 5.061 million tons of lignite increased by 3.2%.

On March 17, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 97.78, down 0.37 points from yesterday, down 30.37% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 82.46% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the recent domestic hydrofluoric acid market price fluctuation, as of the 18th day, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 10775 yuan/ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is more than 60%, enterprises reflect that the current on-site hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, recent on-site goods generally, some enterprises have increased hydrofluoric acid inventory, factory prices remain low, due to recent price shocks in the raw material market, Hydrofluoric acid market price trend is temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,500-11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices remain low, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent upward trend in the raw material market, fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, for hydrofluoric acid has some favorable support, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market shocks.

Recent downstream refrigerant product units started to rise, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand has increased, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product prices temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise’s bulk water ex-factory offer price rises to 18500-19000 yuan/ton, but there is no bulk water spot in the production enterprise, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has risen, and the delivery market has risen. The domestic market price of R134a has risen slightly, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the improvement of the goods, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Refrigerant on-site transactions have risen, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate has increased, for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand may increase, coupled with the upstream fluorite price has an upward trend, March is the peak season of air conditioning production, the downstream refrigeration industry is expected to rise, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly higher.

According to the Journal of Oil and Gas, U.S. Energy Intelligence Agency (eia) data show that U.S. crude oil stocks (excluding strategic oil reserves) fell by 3.9 million barrels in the week ending March 8 compared with the previous week.

According to the report, U.S. crude oil stocks were 449.1 million barrels, about 2% higher than the five-year average. In addition, the American Petroleum Institute said its own estimates showed that U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 2.6 million barrels this week.

According to EIA, total U.S. automotive gasoline inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels, about 2% over five years. Last week, finished gasoline stocks and mixed parts stocks both fell. The stock of distillate oil increased by 400,000 barrels, about 1% lower than the average level in the same period of five years.

In the week ending March 8, U.S. refineries produced an average of 16 million barrels a day, about 30,000 barrels higher than the previous week’s average. The start-up rate of the refinery is 87.6%.

Gasoline production declined, averaging 9.7 million barrels a day. Distillate oil production declined, averaging 4.9 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.7 million barrels a day, down 255,000 barrels a day from last week. In the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million barrels a day, down 9% from the same period last year. The average import of automobile gasoline is 573,000 barrels per day. Distilled fuel imports averaged 238,000 barrels per day.

According to RIGZONE, OPEC’s market power will continue to lose until about 2025 with the booming development of shale oil in the United States.

The International Energy Agency says that by 2024, OPEC’s crude oil production capacity will actually shrink as oil production in Iran and Venezuela falls. With the increase of competitors, the annual global demand from OPEC will not return to the level before 2016, that is, before OPEC starts to cut production.

For OPEC, the report may be a thought-provoking data. Over the past two years, OPEC has been limiting production to avoid global oversupply and thus depress oil prices. Although production cuts have basically achieved these goals, they have also stimulated the development of shale oil in the United States, making the country the world’s largest producer of crude oil.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, said at CERAWeek Energy Conference in Houston on Monday: “The second wave of the shale gas revolution in the United States is coming. This will shake the flow of international oil and gas trade and have a far-reaching impact on geopolitics.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its interim report that energy expansion in the United States will continue and that the United States will account for 70% of global capacity growth by 2024. By then, the agency said, the country could export 9 million barrels of oil a day, exceeding Russia’s export capacity and approaching Saudi Arabia.

As supply growth in the United States will be supplemented by Brazil, Norway and Guyana, the International Energy Agency has sharply increased its forecast for new crude oil from countries outside OPEC, which is expected to reach 3.3 million barrels a day by 2024.

As a result, OPEC’s 14 member countries’estimates of oil demand have been sharply reduced. By 2024, global demand for OPEC crude oil will remain below pre-production levels. The IEA said OPEC would need to maintain its current production limits over the next 10 years.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of March 13, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5383 yuan/ton, and the domestic ethanol market was mainly stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic ethanol market is stable. Prices fluctuate slightly in the north and east of Jiangsu Province, and gradually stabilize. The pressure of high-price signing and storage is heard, and the downstream chemical industry is purchased on demand; the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northeast region is not great, and the willingness of enterprises to bid is obvious, while the volume of Heilongjiang Borun is stable; the willingness of enterprises in the south of China to bid is obvious, the downstream demand is light, and the arrival of imports is delayed.

Industry Chain: Maize: Maize supply is sufficient and the market demand for farming is still recovering. In theory, the price of maize will continue to fall. Ethyl acetate: The domestic market of ethyl acetate continues to be weak, with smooth delivery under the low-end price advantage of suppliers, but the market is still bearish on the latter stage of ethyl acetate, and the market is still weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the last round of price increase, the downstream digestion of the increase process, the northeast side of raw maize has stopped falling slightly, the cost surface is good, the enterprise inventory is not high, the short-term market is expected to remain strong; the eastern side of China enterprises device driving stable, the supply side rebounded, but the downstream side consumes more pre-inventory, the enterprise is expected to maintain a stable short-term market price due to cost pressures; Regional supply is stable, raw material prices remain stable, downstream demand is light, and the short-term market is expected to remain stable. Ethanol analysts at business associations predict that the domestic ethanol market will remain stable in the near future.