According to RIGZONE, OPEC’s market power will continue to lose until about 2025 with the booming development of shale oil in the United States.
The International Energy Agency says that by 2024, OPEC’s crude oil production capacity will actually shrink as oil production in Iran and Venezuela falls. With the increase of competitors, the annual global demand from OPEC will not return to the level before 2016, that is, before OPEC starts to cut production.
For OPEC, the report may be a thought-provoking data. Over the past two years, OPEC has been limiting production to avoid global oversupply and thus depress oil prices. Although production cuts have basically achieved these goals, they have also stimulated the development of shale oil in the United States, making the country the world’s largest producer of crude oil.
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, said at CERAWeek Energy Conference in Houston on Monday: “The second wave of the shale gas revolution in the United States is coming. This will shake the flow of international oil and gas trade and have a far-reaching impact on geopolitics.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its interim report that energy expansion in the United States will continue and that the United States will account for 70% of global capacity growth by 2024. By then, the agency said, the country could export 9 million barrels of oil a day, exceeding Russia’s export capacity and approaching Saudi Arabia.
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As supply growth in the United States will be supplemented by Brazil, Norway and Guyana, the International Energy Agency has sharply increased its forecast for new crude oil from countries outside OPEC, which is expected to reach 3.3 million barrels a day by 2024.
As a result, OPEC’s 14 member countries’estimates of oil demand have been sharply reduced. By 2024, global demand for OPEC crude oil will remain below pre-production levels. The IEA said OPEC would need to maintain its current production limits over the next 10 years.
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