People in the automotive industry can personally feel that the entire industry is experiencing a new round of unprecedented changes. Over the past few decades, with the ever-increasing shape and function of automobiles, various advanced materials have been applied to new designs and manufacturing. Polycarbonate (PC) is one of the most important ones.

The picture shows the polycarbonate concept car K2016 launched by Covestro

When experts realized that the use of lightweight composite panels instead of high-strength metals would still have high-speed collisions, and this phenomenon would be very common, the use of plastic windows and columns to solve the blind zone problem became Better choice. Because pedestrian and vehicle collisions are usually caused by visual blind spots. Polycarbonate is the only transparent product among the five engineering plastics, and domestic and international demand is growing rapidly, especially in the automotive market. At present, the panoramic sunroof made of polycarbonate (PC) on the market is increasingly favored by car buyers.

Sabic-IP of the United States pointed out that the use of polycarbonate (PC) can innovate the design and installation position of the window and the mechanical system to open the window, plus the polycarbonate (PC) is lighter than the glass, and in the event of a collision It will not hurt the advantages of personnel, so the promotion and application prospects are excellent.

Webasto, a well-known German auto parts supplier, shares the same view: the car’s panoramic sunroof boom is quietly emerging around the world. Take China as an example. As the world’s largest auto market, one out of every three cars produced in China will be equipped with a skylight or a panoramic sunroof. The high heat resistant polycarbonate can be directly vacuum sprayed with metal when producing the condenser and mirror sections. In vacuum spraying, the temperature reaches up to 200 °C. At this time, the surface of the product does not bulge, no fog spots, and no peeling. Due to the use of polycarbonate, the weight of the front lampshade is reduced by 0.5 to 1.4 kg compared to inorganic glass.

Compared to an equal volume glass material, the PC sunroof has a net weight of only 50% of its weight. As the concept of lightweight car has become more and more popular, Webasto believes that the market for PC skylights has great potential. According to Webasto experts, although the PC density is only 50% of the glass, the impact resistance of the material is outstanding. At present, the company has become the designated supplier of the Volkswagen Golf A7 car sunroof. The Volkswagen Golf A7 model PC sunroof is 98 cm long and nearly 1 meter wide, with a total weight of only 1.2 kg.

Although polycarbonate has excellent heat resistance, high rigidity, impact resistance, dimensional stability and good light transmittance, polycarbonate is required to be in polycarbonate because of its poor UV resistance and chemical resistance and easy to be scratched. The surface of the ester (PC) is coated to ensure excellent weathering and scratch resistance of the window. The current Exatec900 system, Momentive’s AS4000, PHC587C and AS4700F coating systems have been widely used in polycarbonate (PC) windows (eg Smartfortwo, Mercedes SLK sunroof coating), these coatings can meet The requirements of the automotive industry have proven their long-term stability in actual use. According to experts, in the next 10 years, new polycarbonate (PC) automotive window glass will form a market of 5 to 6 billion US dollars.

Recently, Pakistani Maritime and Foreign Minister Abdullah Hussein Halon said that ExxonMobil found huge oil reserves in Pakistan near the Iranian border, and these reserves even exceeded Kuwait’s oil reserves.

Halon said in a speech at the Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry: “ExxonMobil is mining oil near the Iranian border and is optimistic about oil discovery. As long as we can meet their standards and attract them to invest, foreign investors will be very interested. Pakistan is doing business.” It is understood that Pakistan’s current crude oil production can only meet 15% of domestic demand, and the remaining 85% are all imported. Due to the high oil prices in recent months, Pakistan often faces huge fiscal deficits and uses most of its foreign exchange reserves for oil imports.

The latest research by S&P Global Market Intelligence shows that despite the significant increase in exploration investment, the discovery rate of copper mines is declining.

Similar to a report released in May, the S&P study found that global copper exploration costs totaled $26.6 billion over the past 10 years, compared with a record high of $4.7 billion in 2012.

In the past 18 years, the global copper exploration investment was only 12.4 billion US dollars. In other words, the investment in copper exploration in the past 10 years is twice that of the latter.

Despite the increase in exploration investment, only 29 discoveries have been made in the past 10 years, and 140 million tons of copper resources have been obtained. And 2/3 of the copper resources come from four deposits: Pampa Escondida, Kamoa and Kakula, and Los Helados. .

From 1990 to 2008, 191 discoveries were made, with a copper resource of 862.8 million tons.

The S&P here refers to a deposit with a resource/reserve of more than 500,000 tons.

The survey in 2016 fell to the level before the 2006 mining boom, but began to pick up after 2016.

What needs to be alarmed is that there have been no new discoveries since 2014.

Standard & Poor’s senior analyst Kevin Murphy said that although the budget has increased, so far no new large copper mines have been discovered. In the next 10 years, the newly discovered resources of large copper mines can only increase to 245 million tons. However, the entire copper production chain has remained stable, and new capacity can sustain production in 2017 at least until 2020.

Standard & Poor’s believes that the concentration of mining companies in brownfield exploration is the reason for the decline in discovery rates.

The 1990s was the period of concentrated discovery of copper mines. Of the 220 major copper discoveries discovered in the past 28 years, 106 were discovered during this period, and their resources accounted for half of the discovered copper mines.

The copper mines discovered in Chile and Peru in Latin America since 1990 accounted for half of the world’s copper mines found in the same period. From 1990 to 2017, Chile’s copper mines were found to account for 35.1% of the world, followed by Peru (11%), the United States (8.7%) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (6%). During the same period, Australian copper mines only accounted for 2.6% of the world.

Standard & Poor’s warned that the period from discovery to production of copper mines is about 20 years. In other words, the new discovery of copper mines in the past 10 years may appear in the next 15 to 20 years. Unless the discovery rate can be improved in the near future, in the long run, the world will lack quality projects that can be put into development.

According to the S&P May report, the world’s top 15 producers saw a decline in production in March.

The International Copper Research Group (ICSG) predicts that global copper production will increase by 3% in 2018, and will remain flat in 2019. It is estimated that there will be a surplus of 40,000 tons of copper this year and a shortage of 330,000 tons next year.

The number of Chinese chemical companies selected for the list of the top 50 global chemical companies has increased from the original two to four. Among them, Wanhua Chemical has become the “dark horse” in the first half of the year.

Thanks to the increase in chemical prices and sales, the performance of the world’s major chemical giants in the first half of the year generally improved.

As of August 7, nearly 2/3 of the top 20 chemical companies in the global chemical industry have published semi-annual performance reports. For the first time, BASF SE (BASF SE), which is ranked first in the top 50 in the chemical industry, was overtaken by Dow DuPont Co., the world’s largest chemical company.

In the first half of the year, Dow DuPont’s sales for the same period was US$45.7 billion, an increase of approximately 10% year-on-year; operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization was US$10.6 billion, an increase of approximately 15% year-on-year.

During the same period, BASF’s sales were US$38.26 billion, up 0.9% year-on-year; profit before interest and taxes was US$5.61 billion, up 3.3% year-on-year.

Dow DuPont’s performance growth in the first half of the year was due to the increase in volume in the major markets in the second quarter.

Compared with the same period of last year, Dow DuPont’s market volume increased by 10% in the second quarter, and the United States, Canada and Asia Pacific achieved double-digit growth. Among them, agricultural production increased by 20% from the previous month, and sales of materials science and specialty products increased by 10% and 4% respectively.

In the first half of the year, Dow DuPont’s product prices increased by an average of about 4%, resulting in a quarter of sales growth in the agricultural sector, a 18% increase in sales in the materials science sector, and a 10% increase in sales in the specialty products segment. .

As of the second quarter of this year, Dow DuPont’s earnings have exceeded Wall Street analysts’ expectations for four consecutive quarters.

BASF’s performance also benefited from the growth in functional materials, chemical prices and sales, but the adverse exchange rate factors associated with the US dollar affected sales in all business areas.

In the first half of the year, BASF’s oil and gas and chemicals business revenues continued to rise, but agricultural operations and functional materials showed a significant downward trend.

In August of this year, BASF will complete the acquisition of Bayer’s main business of seed and non-selective herbicides. These businesses are worth approximately $1.26 billion and will have 4,500 new employees joining BASF.

The acquisition complements BASF’s strategic focus on existing crop protection, biotechnology and digital applications, meaning it will further expand its seed business. In addition, BASF is considering merging the oil and gas business with the business of DEA Deutsche Erdoel AG and its subsidiaries.

In addition to the above two chemical giants, most of the semi-annual chemical giants have reported sales growth of between 7% and 10%. Covestro’s sales in the first half of the year was US$8.71 billion, up 7.9% year-on-year; the profit before operating EBITDA was US$2.29 billion, up 20.9% year-on-year. The biggest reason for its business growth was that the sales volume in the first half of the year increased by 2.2% year-on-year.

Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (600309.SH, hereinafter referred to as Wanhua Chemical) has become the biggest “dark horse” in terms of performance growth. In the first half of the year, Wanhua Chemical achieved operating income of 30.054 billion yuan (equivalent to 4.385 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 23%, and achieved a net profit of 6.949 billion yuan (US$1.014 billion), a year-on-year increase of 42.9%.

Wanhua Chemical also entered the global chemical industry top 50 list (according to 2017 performance ranking), ranking 43rd. The list of the world’s top 50 chemical companies is published in July each year by the Journal of Chemistry and Engineering News of the Journal of the American Chemical. The number of Chinese chemical companies selected for this year has increased from the original two to four.

The other three selected Chinese companies are China Petrochemical Corporation, Taiwan Formosa Plastics Group and China National Chemical Corporation (hereinafter referred to as China National Chemical Corporation). Among them, Sinochem was newly selected for the acquisition of Syngenta, which ranked 30 last year.

On June 30, Ren Jianxin, chairman of China National Chemical Corporation, announced his retirement. Ning Gaoning, chairman of Sinochem Group (hereinafter referred to as Sinochem), also served as chairman of China National Chemical Corporation. This is considered by the industry to be close to the merger of Sinochem and Sinochem. If the merger of the two major groups is successful, the combined operating income of the two parties will exceed 770 billion yuan (about 110 billion US dollars), which is expected to replace Dow DuPont as the world’s largest chemical company.

First, the price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 for calcium carbide method), the domestic PVC price was 6,920 yuan/ton on August 6, and the price was 7161 yuan/ton on August 6, the overall increase was 3.48%. The PVC price was raised 300- this week. 600 yuan / ton, the market rose strongly.

Second, the cause analysis

Product: Recently, the spot stock of PVC producers is at a low level, while the market circulation is relatively limited, and the supply side inventory pressure is not large. The overall operating rate of the manufacturers still declined. This week, the overall PVC started at 81.53%, down 1.71% from the previous month. Among them, the PVC operating rate of calcium carbide method was 81.46%, down 0.5% from the previous month; the PVC operating rate of ethylene method was 81.93%, down 8.43% from the previous month. After the price rise this week, the downstream wait-and-see attitude is the main, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, the actual transaction volume is general, and it meets the just-needed demand. However, the inventory is low and the market expects demand to increase, resulting in a firm price increase. The overall price of PVC this week is 7100-7380 yuan / ton.

Futures: This week, PVC futures soared, rising strongly against the spot market, traders’ prices rose, producers’ quotations shifted upwards, and prices were actively raised. Some producers waited and watched their attitudes. This week, the PVC market rose mainly.

Raw materials: Recently (August 1st – August 10th) this week, the demand for calcium carbide market is relatively stable. The supply and demand game, the distribution of goods has been unbalanced, and some producers have slightly increased, with an overall increase of 0.15%. Ethylene prices rose slightly, with an overall increase of 2.74%. Affected by upstream raw material support, PVC prices continued to rise, with an overall increase of 4.68%.

The energy index on August 10 was 926 points, up 4 points from yesterday, down 11.22% from the highest point of 1043 points (2012-03-29), up 81.21 from the lowest point of March 01, 2016. %. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date) The overall market of the rubber and plastics industry has risen sharply.

Third, the market outlook

PVC analysts of the business community believe that this week, the PVC spot market is rising strongly, but the actual transaction of high price is not as expected. It is expected that next week’s market will be digested by this week’s gains, consolidating and consolidating, and trending futures. In the long run, the environmental protection policy is limited, the social inventory is at a low level, and the terminal demand is expected to be good. When Jin Jiuyin 10 arrives, it will be dominated. It is expected that the mainstream price of PVC 5 will be 7050-7500 yuan/ton.