First, the price trend
According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 for calcium carbide method), the domestic PVC price was 6,920 yuan/ton on August 6, and the price was 7161 yuan/ton on August 6, the overall increase was 3.48%. The PVC price was raised 300- this week. 600 yuan / ton, the market rose strongly.
Second, the cause analysis
Product: Recently, the spot stock of PVC producers is at a low level, while the market circulation is relatively limited, and the supply side inventory pressure is not large. The overall operating rate of the manufacturers still declined. This week, the overall PVC started at 81.53%, down 1.71% from the previous month. Among them, the PVC operating rate of calcium carbide method was 81.46%, down 0.5% from the previous month; the PVC operating rate of ethylene method was 81.93%, down 8.43% from the previous month. After the price rise this week, the downstream wait-and-see attitude is the main, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, the actual transaction volume is general, and it meets the just-needed demand. However, the inventory is low and the market expects demand to increase, resulting in a firm price increase. The overall price of PVC this week is 7100-7380 yuan / ton.
Futures: This week, PVC futures soared, rising strongly against the spot market, traders’ prices rose, producers’ quotations shifted upwards, and prices were actively raised. Some producers waited and watched their attitudes. This week, the PVC market rose mainly.
Raw materials: Recently (August 1st – August 10th) this week, the demand for calcium carbide market is relatively stable. The supply and demand game, the distribution of goods has been unbalanced, and some producers have slightly increased, with an overall increase of 0.15%. Ethylene prices rose slightly, with an overall increase of 2.74%. Affected by upstream raw material support, PVC prices continued to rise, with an overall increase of 4.68%.
The energy index on August 10 was 926 points, up 4 points from yesterday, down 11.22% from the highest point of 1043 points (2012-03-29), up 81.21 from the lowest point of March 01, 2016. %. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date) The overall market of the rubber and plastics industry has risen sharply.
Third, the market outlook
PVC analysts of the business community believe that this week, the PVC spot market is rising strongly, but the actual transaction of high price is not as expected. It is expected that next week’s market will be digested by this week’s gains, consolidating and consolidating, and trending futures. In the long run, the environmental protection policy is limited, the social inventory is at a low level, and the terminal demand is expected to be good. When Jin Jiuyin 10 arrives, it will be dominated. It is expected that the mainstream price of PVC 5 will be 7050-7500 yuan/ton.
| Thiourea |