At the end of January 19th, a press conference before the Spring Festival, the national development and Reform Commission drying out the 2016 reform bill: salt change, forest reform, electricity reform, price reform, change the mix of vehicles have changed……
At the same time, the 2017 reform has been speeding on the road. The Commission for restructuring led mixed ownership reform of state-owned enterprises, will expand the pilot at the national level this year. In addition, electricity reform will also further, aim at “orderly development of electricity plan”.

26 led reform completed

According to reports, according to the “central” outline of comprehensive deepening of reform leading group deployment in 2016, led by the national development and Reform Commission in 2016 the first year reform task has 26, has completed a comprehensive work plan.

Among them, the key task is: “on improving property rights protection system to protect property rights according to law”, “several opinions on promoting the sustained and healthy development of venture capital”, “on a number of opinions” to further improve the national reserve system, “on the national ecological civilization pilot area the establishment of unified standards of the” opinions “, the goal of ecological civilization the construction of evaluation methods”, “guidance” on the innovation of government resource allocation mode, “Provincial Spatial Planning pilot program”, “on the full liberalization of pension services market to enhance the quality of service pension opinions” and so on. “In 2016, the national development and Reform Commission to reform as a priority among priorities work, led efforts to promote the reform tasks, to achieve new breakthroughs in important areas and key links, enhance the vitality of market players and the endogenous dynamic of economic development.” Comprehensive economic system reform of the national development and Reform Commission Secretary Xu Shanchang said.

At the same time, the national development and Reform Commission through economic reform work of the inter ministerial joint meeting mechanism, develop and promote the implementation of the State Council “on the deepening economic reform in 2016 focused on the work of opinions”, the deployment of the 10 aspects of the 50 key reform tasks, refinement of the 237 reform measures basically completed, in 2016 the introduction of the reform program requirements have been issued or report.

Multi flowering industry reform

How to treat copper demand

Public data show that the first three quarters of 2016, China’s new energy automobile production 461 thousand tons, an increase of 83.7%.

Chinese international futures research thinks, according to the projections of the current rate, is expected in 2017 China’s new energy automobile production will reach about 640 thousand units, is expected to total copper consumption of about 38 thousand and 400 tons, accounting for about 0.3% of China’s copper consumption.

The Ministry of China manufacturing “2025″ report, according to the plan, in 2025, Chinese brand new energy automobile sales will reach 3 million units, accounting for up to 20%.

“In 2015, China’s automobile production 24 million 830 thousand, if the growth rate of 25% per year in accordance with the electric vehicle production estimates, by 2025 China’s electric vehicle production reached 4 million 760 thousand units, with a total amount of copper is about 280 thousand tons / year, accounting for the current year copper consumption in China 2.5%.” China international futures research, limited short-term new energy vehicles on copper consumption growth dynamics, will not have much impact on the copper market.

But once in the United States over the past five recessions, accurate prediction of three times (1981, 2001 and 2007), copper is not Langdexuming. As has been widely used in electrical, light industry, machinery manufacturing, construction industry, an important demand for copper is often used as a wide range of economic activities, the price trend and can accurately predict the global macroeconomic.

Commodities and who go

Crude oil and copper, who on commodity prices lead to more obvious?

Found China Securities Daily reporter comparing several index trend, LME copper, the copper (46470, -140.00, -0.30%) and the trend of the Mandarin commodity index trend is more convergence, falling into the channel in 2011; and Brent crude oil, U.S. crude oil and CRB index trend is more similar after 2011 – 2014 after consolidation, it fell into the channel.

It is understood that the CRB index is by the Commodity Research Bureau (Commodity Research Bureau) on the basis of a futures price index on the world market 19 basic economic sensitive goods price system, commonly referred to as the RJ/CRB index; and the Mandarin commodity index (CCI) is tracking 28 domestic listed commodity prices overall performance. The former reflects the world commodity movements, while the latter reflects the domestic market.

GF Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Guo Lei pointed out that the crude oil is a key period of the product, the first is that it is the mapping of industrial demand, it can not be replaced, it is entity attribute is much stronger than the metal; secondly, it is related to the depth of interest game between the resources of China and the industrial country, Price Bureau complex; again, it is one of the most important resources, on the middle and lower reaches of the industry is expected to have a profound impact, there is no industry restocking is expected, or make up long, crude oil price trend is a key determinant.

In 2017, Guo Lei believes that using crude oil as a coordinate (2016 oil prices in the month were between $32-54, $45 a year), the corresponding assets evolution may have the following three kinds of circumstances. A: the crude oil price fluctuations in the range of $50-60, and then have the corresponding moderate inflation, space debt stocks slightly better than stocks, bonds, asset cycle dominance; case two: crude oil price fluctuations in the range of $60-70 or even higher, the corresponding class stagflation, shares bonds double play, hedge assets dominated; situation three: crude oil price fluctuation $40-50, corresponding to a return to deflation, easing the debt is expected to rise, slightly better than stocks, asset light dominant.

“The situation is a high probability, followed by the two, pay attention to the assets of the two cases of logical pricing.” Guo Lei said.

it is understood that the end of last year, the price of polyolefin from its peak appeared around 10% decline, stock turnover slowed synchronization. Since last December, the seasonal demand into the off-season, the continuous rise in price which produced downstream supply of high resistance to.” The industrial futures analyst Pan Zengen told futures Daily reporter, in the price adjustment in the state, “do not buy or buy up” mentality has also exacerbated the gloomy atmosphere of the spot market.

At the same time, the supply side is expected relatively loose. The petrochemical maintenance rate is low, the new device has been put into operation (Ningbo, Fuji, Changzhou Zhongtian co-founder, and sources of imports Fude) to Hong Kong increased, alleviate the early supply issues. In addition, the January May contract warehouse cannot turn left, a large warehouse will be into the spot market in before and after delivery. The above factors, led to the adjustment of pre – market of polyolefin.

However, after the decline, the price will have before polyolefin prices peaked, weak consumption and other factors to fully digest the impact of new production capacity, not only expected to appear. Recently, due to the petrochemical enterprise inventory is low, a slight rebound in the price adjustment of polyolefin, the market came to an end.

LLDPE PP is the trend of the strong side

The inventory of petrochemical enterprises, the current is still below the average inventory level, during the Spring Festival or a certain degree of accumulation. “The low inventory level support for polyolefin prices. When the price of a certain rate of decline after the end just need to focus on replenishment is easy to push up the price, which is the main reason of the polyolefin market up going down easily.” Pan Zengen said.

On the whole, LLDPE and PP trend is consistent, but in contrast, LLDPE more fierce.

PP production capacity of more than LLDPE, LLDPE determines the strong trend in PP. According to Pan Zengen introduction, the fourth quarter of last year and the first half of this year, is expected to only 750 thousand tons of new plastic production capacity, new capacity is 2 million 500 thousand tons and PP. The supply of PP, the maintenance device is less, and more new capacity, PP supply is ample LLDPE.

On demand, although before the Spring Festival LLDPE and PP consumption is low for the year, but after the Spring Festival, LLDPE film will usher in the peak season of consumption, PP consumption is not obvious positive. In such expectations, compared with the LLDPE PP trend is stronger.

The rally continuing doubts

Futures Daily reporter learned that, for the price of polyolefin on Friday rose sharply, before the device maintenance and delivery businesses is the main reason.

Last year before the Spring Festival, the downstream enterprises will actively stocking to deal with after years of production, the current price is usually out of the wave of rising prices. This year, the downstream enterprises stocking will is not strong, not rebound and corporate stock relationship polyolefin market recently.

In the view of Jinshi futures analyst Huang Liqiang, the downstream enterprises are not actively stocking, a polyolefin price is high, the lower reaches of corporate profits is not good; two is subject to environmental inspection influence, downstream enterprises were forced to shut down. In addition, before the device maintenance is less, adequate market supply, so that the downstream enterprises wait-and-see mood.

“Recently, polyolefin maintenance device increased (especially polypropylene), petrochemical enterprises inventory also increased. However, the early polyolefin plant operating load is high, the downstream demand is not obvious peatlands, petrochemical business inventories are low, this phenomenon is somewhat illogical.” Investor futures analyst Huang Qingqing said, on the one hand, by the end of the contract goods customer concentration caused a sharp decline in petrochemical enterprise inventory; on the other hand, at present, petrochemical enterprises better profits, and near the film consumption season, the inventory of doubtful authenticity.

The Spring Festival is coming, because although polyolefin market of petrochemical enterprises inventory low demand, open market rebound, but the downstream stocking near the end, from the supply side pressure continues unabated, Huang Liqiang believes that the late polyolefin trend will be more anxious to substantialvolatility.

chemical industry at present, the domestic market continued weak market consolidation hydrochloride.

In January 16th of Tianjin area market stability, high purity acid factory price in 300-400 yuan / ton. The two devices of chlor alkali enterprises operating rate of 100%, shipments in Tianjin is expected to the recent steady rhythm, smooth continuation of the trend of the price of hydrochloric acid. Shaanxi area market hydrochloride temporary stability, relatively low operating rate of hydrochloric acid, 31% acid synthesis in the ex factory price 150 yuan / ton, the by-product hydrochloric acid low price of 100 yuan / ton. The local monthly production of 10 thousand tons of hydrochloric acid, near the end of the year the market more stable. The smooth operation of the Zhejiang area of the market price, the 31% synthetic acid with high purity acid factory price in 200-250 yuan / ton, high-end price of 300 yuan tons of by-product hydrochloric acid shipped flexible, take the amount of the main, not much of the market supply, the market outlook is expected to steady run based local hydrochloride. Anhui area market remained stable in 31% hydrochloric acid, hydrochloric acid synthesis factory price in 50-200 yuan / ton, premium 260 yuan / ton, the by-product hydrochloric acid factory price in 1-20 yuan / ton. Hydrochloric acid Market in the region market late stable.

At present, the Shaanxi area market hydrochloride temporary stability, relatively low operating rate of hydrochloric acid, 31% acid synthesis in the ex factory price 150 yuan / ton, the by-product hydrochloric acid low price of 100 yuan / ton. The local monthly production of 10 thousand tons of hydrochloric acid, near the end of the year the market more stable. The stability of the market area of Tianjin hydrochloric acid, high purity acid factory price in 300-400 yuan / ton. The two devices of chlor alkali enterprises operating rate of 100%, shipments in Tianjin is expected to the recent steady rhythm, smooth continuation of the trend of the price of hydrochloric acid. The recent upstream crude price stability, lower demand for multi demand procurement,

Expected future prices are still weak market mainly hydrochloride.

UBS global chief economist Arend Kapteyn also expressed similar views, he believes that the current view, the Fed rate hike to the end of the impact on emerging market Co., the correlation between emerging market trend and the Fed interest rate is reduced, and the trend of oil prices in the near future also and the dollar peg.
According to CNBC reports, the French bank of Paris senior investment strategist Daniel Morris recently told the media that, in view of the emerging market fundamentals, including earnings growth potential and earning potential, and undervalued currencies against the dollar, making these areas have increased the space in the future. At present, the negative trend will be short-term, but also will provide investors with a good chance of admission, the second quarter of 2017 is expected to be a good time.

“The Latin American market still has a lot of political risk, a potential negative impact on the market. And Asia, we still see some good long-term investment opportunities, the local market will stimulate the inflow of funds into some simplified rules to capture the appreciation, especially in India and Indonesia, we hope to see the simplified rules to support these local economic growth. In India, the government is expected to large after the launch of the bill abolished policy will make the country’s economic slowdown this year.” Bess said high. In addition, UBS asset management stock / multi asset /OConnor director Dawn Fitzpatrick in a report released recently pointed out that population trends in emerging markets is still a long-term advantage, will bring a lot of investment opportunities.