it is understood that the end of last year, the price of polyolefin from its peak appeared around 10% decline, stock turnover slowed synchronization. Since last December, the seasonal demand into the off-season, the continuous rise in price which produced downstream supply of high resistance to.” The industrial futures analyst Pan Zengen told futures Daily reporter, in the price adjustment in the state, “do not buy or buy up” mentality has also exacerbated the gloomy atmosphere of the spot market.
| Magnesium sulphate |
At the same time, the supply side is expected relatively loose. The petrochemical maintenance rate is low, the new device has been put into operation (Ningbo, Fuji, Changzhou Zhongtian co-founder, and sources of imports Fude) to Hong Kong increased, alleviate the early supply issues. In addition, the January May contract warehouse cannot turn left, a large warehouse will be into the spot market in before and after delivery. The above factors, led to the adjustment of pre – market of polyolefin.
However, after the decline, the price will have before polyolefin prices peaked, weak consumption and other factors to fully digest the impact of new production capacity, not only expected to appear. Recently, due to the petrochemical enterprise inventory is low, a slight rebound in the price adjustment of polyolefin, the market came to an end.
| Sulfamic acid |
LLDPE PP is the trend of the strong side
The inventory of petrochemical enterprises, the current is still below the average inventory level, during the Spring Festival or a certain degree of accumulation. “The low inventory level support for polyolefin prices. When the price of a certain rate of decline after the end just need to focus on replenishment is easy to push up the price, which is the main reason of the polyolefin market up going down easily.” Pan Zengen said.
On the whole, LLDPE and PP trend is consistent, but in contrast, LLDPE more fierce.
| sulphamic acid |
PP production capacity of more than LLDPE, LLDPE determines the strong trend in PP. According to Pan Zengen introduction, the fourth quarter of last year and the first half of this year, is expected to only 750 thousand tons of new plastic production capacity, new capacity is 2 million 500 thousand tons and PP. The supply of PP, the maintenance device is less, and more new capacity, PP supply is ample LLDPE.
On demand, although before the Spring Festival LLDPE and PP consumption is low for the year, but after the Spring Festival, LLDPE film will usher in the peak season of consumption, PP consumption is not obvious positive. In such expectations, compared with the LLDPE PP trend is stronger.
The rally continuing doubts
Futures Daily reporter learned that, for the price of polyolefin on Friday rose sharply, before the device maintenance and delivery businesses is the main reason.
| Thiourea |
Last year before the Spring Festival, the downstream enterprises will actively stocking to deal with after years of production, the current price is usually out of the wave of rising prices. This year, the downstream enterprises stocking will is not strong, not rebound and corporate stock relationship polyolefin market recently.
In the view of Jinshi futures analyst Huang Liqiang, the downstream enterprises are not actively stocking, a polyolefin price is high, the lower reaches of corporate profits is not good; two is subject to environmental inspection influence, downstream enterprises were forced to shut down. In addition, before the device maintenance is less, adequate market supply, so that the downstream enterprises wait-and-see mood.
| Thiourea dioxide |
“Recently, polyolefin maintenance device increased (especially polypropylene), petrochemical enterprises inventory also increased. However, the early polyolefin plant operating load is high, the downstream demand is not obvious peatlands, petrochemical business inventories are low, this phenomenon is somewhat illogical.” Investor futures analyst Huang Qingqing said, on the one hand, by the end of the contract goods customer concentration caused a sharp decline in petrochemical enterprise inventory; on the other hand, at present, petrochemical enterprises better profits, and near the film consumption season, the inventory of doubtful authenticity.
The Spring Festival is coming, because although polyolefin market of petrochemical enterprises inventory low demand, open market rebound, but the downstream stocking near the end, from the supply side pressure continues unabated, Huang Liqiang believes that the late polyolefin trend will be more anxious to substantialvolatility.
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