Five is the downstream users of methanol on the rapid rise in short-term sentiment significantly.

The short term, with futures prices fell sharply, the price of methanol on the spot price premium to enlarge, the focus should concern basis how to repair, is the spot or futures Buzhang budie. According to Tuesday 1701 methanol futures closing price of 2894 yuan / ton, east port spot price 3000, 3200 yuan / ton, 1701 methanol disk premium spot rate of 106 – 306 yuan / ton; Jiangsu area in accordance with the market price of 3005 yuan / ton, 1701 methanol face cash premium also more than 100 yuan / ton. From the basic point of view, the possibility of further short-term methanol deep down slightly.

The medium term, methanol price or the supply and demand driven. The supply side, as of last weekend, the average operating rate of domestic methanol increased by 1% to 52%, the main unit of Shanxi is a set of 600 thousand tons / year and in a set of 80 thousand tons / year to restart the other device, no apparent changes, the increase in domestic supply; imports, a total of 70 thousand tons of imported methanol loading and unloading in the port last week, mainly from New Zealand and Saudi Arabia, basically unchanged over the previous week. At present, the supply side and saw no signs of significant changes in the future may. Therefore, you can focus more on the demand side, especially the emerging demand for methanol to olefins.

Last week, emerging methanol downstream started at around 80%. But rumours of Xing Xing energy production fell below the cash cost, the latter need to focus on the unit production capacity of 600 thousand tons of dynamic construction. In addition, the market is of particular concern, the new Changzhou Fude olefin plant feed production is started, and the market for February 2017 may help as well as 2 million 400 thousand tons of methanol production capacity is expected to be put into operation MTO.

The traditional downstream market last week, formaldehyde operating rate decreased by 3% to 42%, two operating rate decreased from 2% to 14% methyl acetate, operating rate rose 6% to 89%, the operating rate of MTBE increased by 3% to 58%, the operating rate of DMF decreased from 7% to 48%. At present, the traditional downstream market price is difficult to pass on the cost of methanol resistance, or the downstream equipment operating rate forced down, and ultimately reduce the demand for methanol. At the same time, the traditional end of the downstream demand into the off-season. However, there is little possibility of sharp decline in traditional demand, overall relatively stable. The medium term, as long as the goods the whole atmosphere is not pessimistic, methanol can still be used as a multi configuration, especially at the downstream of methanol to olefins methanol plant put into operation, easily become a rising detonation time point.

At the beginning of the week is a one-day commodity market overall loss of nearly 2 billion yuan, of which the chemical sector were topped 750 million yuan, the overall decline in commodity market, bearish sentiment.

Two is the methanol price and the price difference between the eastern northwest continued to enlarge, the arbitrage window opens.

Three is the rumor Zhejiang Xing Xing Energy of methanol to olefins production below the cash cost, the market is expected to be discontinued.

The four is producing methanol spot prices began to rise from the basic early last week, and this week the port of methanol spot prices appear loose.

methanol also crazy. Less than two months, up nearly 50%.

This year National Day over, methanol futures didn’t stop. Before the national day of the port area of East China methanol price is only 1900 yuan / ton, the festival rose to 2050 yuan / ton. A little later after a breath and made a whirlwind, just a week, from 2500 up to 3200!

WeChat pictures from the public number futures daily”

However, methanol futures mania is only a corner of iceberg chemical industry.

This chemical price rose more than 30% of the nearly 30, price rose more than 30% to 16. TDI and other varieties of prices and spreads or even reached 164.8% and 285.6%, a record high.

Orient Securities Chief Petrochemical analyst Zhao Chen believes that this year, chemical products prices continued to rebound, corporate profits improved significantly, not only because the demand side policy underpinning to maintain growth, and the supply side of the past few years a lot of exit capacity, finally the gap between supply and demand to boost prices.

Styrene industry chain prices strong pull up, showing strong momentum to rise on the downstream linkage. On the one hand, the downstream products of ABS, EPS, styrene butadiene rubber (19335105, 0.55%) prices rose more than 10%, stable manufacturers started, to form a stable support for the whole industry chain of styrene; on the other hand, the upstream product benzene styrene continued upward outside a certain extent to stimulate the domestic market and domestic market supply of benzene. Tight price is hard to find, the industry of bullish prices, Sinopec raised storage space, the listing price increase homeopathy. The linkage effects on the lower reaches of the whole industry chain to promote the styrene prices.

Since December, the domestic market was soaring prices, prices rose about toluene to 5850~5950 yuan / ton (tank), rose nearly 600 yuan / ton at the end of 11, also a record highs for the year. At present, the domestic port east toluene inventory changes less, inventories increased slightly, trading atmosphere light temporarily. When the traditional off-season demand, winter temperatures, based on the expected demand shrinking downstream industries such as paint, and near the end of the year, the factory based on clear expectations. From the supply perspective, the supply is relatively stable, holding the goods inventory cost gradually high, with very price mentality.

Aromatic market or welcome back

In the days before the meeting of the Huaian chemical enterprises and financial solutions online promotion and Jiangsu Thailand online trading platform + financial services supply chain solutions signing ceremony, according to Jiangsu Thailand biotechnology to reflect the current shortage of chemical market, short-term there is still upward momentum.

The chemical industry analysts believe that the international crude oil price shocks, the market fundamentals support high rise aromatics. Benzene, styrene, toluene and other product prices are different degrees of pull up, no strong positive fundamentals, but the external support higher, the domestic spot Kongpan fried up, electronic disk Bikong strong, is not short off-season. In addition to the downstream after a period of follow up digestion, though limited, but still within the scope of the bear. Near the end of the year, the supply is relatively stable, there is no demand upward trend, the next plate price or aromatics fell back, but fell less likely to continue to follow up, the fundamentals of product and environment influence.

since November 2016, prices rose aromatic products. According to the business community monitoring, aromatic products prices rise significantly, especially the hydrogenation of benzene to benzene or up to 81.81%, or 76.77%, toluene or up to 19.86%, a number of products rose up to 2016 highs.

At the end of November, the international crude oil prices rebounded again open commodity chemical industry a new round of uplink channel, especially for tighter supply of products brought up an opportunity.

Benzene prices rose with the hydrogenation of benzene

November 1st ~12 month 14 days, benzene prices rose 2350 yuan / ton, or 43.44%. this is pure price since May 2015 for the first time exceeded 6000 yuan / ton, but still tied outside and the price of the market, after the market offer highs.

The reason is mainly the following two points: In November, Sinopec listing price and the market price spreads gradually widened, the spot market supply is tight, the market without low supply, holding the goods to market speculation rising offer rising petrochemical price and the market price spreads widening, petrochemical price kept up space, listing price up regulation. Secondly, the outer benzene prices continue to rise, the domestic market price to stimulate the formation of benzene.

As the hydrogenation of benzene to benzene related products since November, prices also surged, the market price from 5370 yuan / ton rose to 7920 yuan / ton, just over a month, up 2550 yuan / ton, the overall increase of 47.49%. the reason is that on the one hand the industry losses, enterprise comprehensive hydrogenation of benzene the operating rate is not high, but the downstream just need not reduce, resulting in spot market shortage, natural Jan Huojin price; the other is benzene prices strong, the two spreads continued to widen, provide the price for the same reason for hydrogenation of benzene.

Strong pull up the soaring price of styrene toluene