Five is the downstream users of methanol on the rapid rise in short-term sentiment significantly.

Five is the downstream users of methanol on the rapid rise in short-term sentiment significantly.

The short term, with futures prices fell sharply, the price of methanol on the spot price premium to enlarge, the focus should concern basis how to repair, is the spot or futures Buzhang budie. According to Tuesday 1701 methanol futures closing price of 2894 yuan / ton, east port spot price 3000, 3200 yuan / ton, 1701 methanol disk premium spot rate of 106 – 306 yuan / ton; Jiangsu area in accordance with the market price of 3005 yuan / ton, 1701 methanol face cash premium also more than 100 yuan / ton. From the basic point of view, the possibility of further short-term methanol deep down slightly.

The medium term, methanol price or the supply and demand driven. The supply side, as of last weekend, the average operating rate of domestic methanol increased by 1% to 52%, the main unit of Shanxi is a set of 600 thousand tons / year and in a set of 80 thousand tons / year to restart the other device, no apparent changes, the increase in domestic supply; imports, a total of 70 thousand tons of imported methanol loading and unloading in the port last week, mainly from New Zealand and Saudi Arabia, basically unchanged over the previous week. At present, the supply side and saw no signs of significant changes in the future may. Therefore, you can focus more on the demand side, especially the emerging demand for methanol to olefins.

Last week, emerging methanol downstream started at around 80%. But rumours of Xing Xing energy production fell below the cash cost, the latter need to focus on the unit production capacity of 600 thousand tons of dynamic construction. In addition, the market is of particular concern, the new Changzhou Fude olefin plant feed production is started, and the market for February 2017 may help as well as 2 million 400 thousand tons of methanol production capacity is expected to be put into operation MTO.

The traditional downstream market last week, formaldehyde operating rate decreased by 3% to 42%, two operating rate decreased from 2% to 14% methyl acetate, operating rate rose 6% to 89%, the operating rate of MTBE increased by 3% to 58%, the operating rate of DMF decreased from 7% to 48%. At present, the traditional downstream market price is difficult to pass on the cost of methanol resistance, or the downstream equipment operating rate forced down, and ultimately reduce the demand for methanol. At the same time, the traditional end of the downstream demand into the off-season. However, there is little possibility of sharp decline in traditional demand, overall relatively stable. The medium term, as long as the goods the whole atmosphere is not pessimistic, methanol can still be used as a multi configuration, especially at the downstream of methanol to olefins methanol plant put into operation, easily become a rising detonation time point.