In the first half of 2025, China’s phenol export volume was 28800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.39%. The international competition is fierce, and China’s phenol export volume is being squeezed. At present, phenol in China is still at a relatively low level in recent years, and with the expected increase in new supply in the second half of the year, it is expected that export operations may have an increasing trend.
China’s phenol export destinations are relatively concentrated. According to customs export data statistics, from January to June 2025, China’s phenol was mainly exported to South Korea, India, Thailand, and Vietnam, accounting for a total of 90% of the export volume. From January to June 2025, the main export trade mode of phenol in China is general trade, accounting for 57.25%; Next is the import and export goods from bonded supervision sites, accounting for 35.11%
In the second half of 2025, China’s phenol production capacity is expected to increase by 840000 tons, and domestic production may further increase. Import contracts are the main focus, and the export market still needs to be developed. Currently, domestic phenol prices are at a low level this year, and there may be opportunities for export negotiations. However, international competition is fierce, and it is expected to be affected in the second half of the year. It is necessary to expand export negotiations to India, Vietnam, Thailand and other places. Overall, it is expected that China’s phenol exports will remain stable in the second half of the year.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 22nd, the price of ethyl acetate was 5426.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% compared to the price of 5443.33 yuan/ton on July 15th, and a decrease of 0.43% from the beginning of the month. The supplier’s supply is stable, downstream demand is average, and the raw material market is mainly weak. The quotation for ethyl acetate continues to decline.
The operation of domestic ethyl acetate plants is stable, the market capacity utilization rate is not high, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not high, and downstream market entry is mostly followed up according to demand. The on-site trading is limited, and the raw material acetic acid market is mainly weak. Prices in some areas continue to decline, and the cost support is insufficient. The market mentality of ethyl acetate is not good, and the focus of ethyl acetate transactions is weak.
In the future, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity remains at a median level, with enterprises mainly shipping on demand. Downstream consumption is slow, and support for ethyl acetate is average. The raw material market is weak, and the sentiment of the industry is not good. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will continue to consolidate weakly in the later stage. Specific attention will be paid to changes in supplier equipment and downstream follow-up.

Recently (7.9-7.22), the butadiene rubber market has fluctuated and risen. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 22, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12070 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.25% from 11690 yuan/ton on July 9. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber has strong support; Shunding rubber production slightly increased; Downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of July 22, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11800 to 12200 yuan/ton.
Recently (7.9-7.22), the price of butadiene has significantly increased, providing strong support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 22, the price of butadiene was 9400 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.83% from 8966 yuan/ton on July 9.
Recently (7.9-7.22), the domestic Shunding plant has seen a slight increase in production, reaching around 6.80%. During this period, the Shunding rubber plants of Jinzhou Petrochemical, Heze Kexin, and Yanshan Petrochemical have restarted.
Demand side: Recently (7.9-7.22), downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of July 18th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.5%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.5%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will rise, and the cost of butadiene rubber will receive strong support; Downstream tire production has slightly increased, with strong demand for support. Overall, it is expected that the Shunding rubber market will continue to fluctuate and rise in the later period.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of polyester staple fiber slightly decreased in July. As of July 21, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% from the beginning of the month.
The crude oil market is mainly volatile, with the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $66.05 per barrel as of the 18th, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract at $69.28 per barrel. The crude oil market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, OPEC+has released its annual world oil outlook and lowered its energy demand expectations, putting pressure on oil prices. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to increased sanctions against Russia by the United States, and the United States will impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from the European Union and Mexico from August 1st, causing fluctuations in the crude oil market.
The PTA market went out of stock from March to June, and in July, maintenance facilities resumed production one after another, increasing the supply margin. The market lacks unplanned news guidance. In addition, with the start of trial production of 3.2 million tons of PTA new capacity in East China, the supply has increased, and the current operating rate of the PTA industry is around 80%.
July is currently in the off-season for textile production, with poor downstream purchasing enthusiasm and a sluggish yarn market. Some factories have reduced their order volume, resulting in insufficient order follow-up. Purchasing is cautious, with a focus on essential needs. Terminal demand continues to be sluggish, and fabric inventory continues to accumulate, forcing factories to alleviate capital turnover pressure by reducing production. Coupled with a decrease in foreign trade orders, most of them focus on digesting inventory.
Business analysts believe that some polyester staple fiber factories will reduce production and undergo more maintenance in July, and it is expected that industry supply will decline. However, the overall weak performance of raw materials and weak demand have dragged down market sentiment, which will further suppress the price of polyester staple fibers.

This week, overall supply remains abundant, fundamentals remain weak, and local inventories have also increased. The domestic acrylonitrile market remains stagnant and weak. As of July 18th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports is between 8000-8100 yuan/ton, with high-end prices dropping by 50 yuan/ton compared to last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is negotiated at around 7900-8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week.
Supply side: This week, the capacity utilization rate and output of domestic acrylonitrile factories remained basically the same as last week, and the overall market supply remained abundant. The expectation of supply growth continued to affect market sentiment, and there was no substantial news of production reduction in the short term. The market is weak and difficult to change. According to statistics, as of July 17th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 76.13%, a decrease of 0.07% compared to the previous week. The weekly output was about 83000 tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons from the previous cycle.
Inventory situation: The fundamentals are still weak, and local inventory continues to rise. According to statistics, as of July 16th, the sample inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China was 49000 tons, an increase of 0.32 million tons from last week.
Demand side: The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile varies, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate is 65.90%, an increase of 0.9% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 68.62%, which is 6.72% higher than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 49.90%, which is 3.86% higher than last week. The overall capacity utilization rate has significantly decreased, and enterprises are purchasing raw materials on demand, resulting in a weakening of overall demand.
Cost aspect: The raw material cost has further decreased during the week, and the production cost of acrylonitrile has decreased, resulting in insufficient cost support. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8715 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -1.63%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -640 yuan/ton, an increase of 98 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Overall, the acrylonitrile market is weak due to insufficient cost support, abundant supply with growth expectations (restart of maintenance facilities at the end of the month and introduction of new production capacity), weakened downstream demand, and insufficient spot gas purchases.