Cobalt prices have seen consecutive increases this week
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on September 22 was 278100 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.13% compared to the cobalt price of 272300 yuan/ton on September 17. The introduction of quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to a decrease in the expected supply of cobalt in the international market, resulting in a fluctuating rise in cobalt prices.
Congo introduces quota system
The Strategic Mineral Market Supervision and Control Authority of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced on the 21st that the country will end the cobalt export ban implemented since February this year from October 15th and implement an export quota system on October 16th until further notice. The agency stated in a statement that mining companies in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be allowed to export over 18000 tons of cobalt for the remainder of this year, with a maximum annual export volume of 96600 tons in 2026 and 2027. Quotas will be allocated based on the proportion of the company’s historical export volume and will be notified to all companies. The implementation of a cobalt export quota system has led to a significant decrease from the nearly 250000 tons of cobalt exports in 2024, and the shortage of supply in the cobalt market will be the main trend in the coming years.
Overview and Prospect
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the introduction of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to lead to a shortage of supply in the cobalt market over the next three years, increasing the driving force for cobalt price increases. Supply shortage and stable demand are expected, and cobalt prices are expected to maintain an upward trend for a long time in the future. However, the increase in cobalt prices is not optimistic. The rise in cobalt prices will stimulate the market to find alternatives. The production of Indonesian cobalt wet process projects continues to increase, making up for the supply shortage in the cobalt market. New batteries will be launched in the market, and in the future, they will seize the demand in the cobalt market. Overall, the upward momentum of cobalt prices is strong, and it is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and rise in the future. However, there is significant resistance for cobalt prices to break through the 300000 yuan mark.

This week (September 13-19, 2025), the polyester filament market as a whole showed a weak downward trend, with a shift in price focus and a cautious market sentiment. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 12th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6600-6800 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7900-8150 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6900-7200 yuan/ton.
Weakened cost support and weak upstream raw materials: Although international crude oil prices have fluctuated, the transmission support for polyester filament costs is limited. More importantly, the trends of direct raw materials such as PTA (purified terephthalic acid) and MEG (ethylene glycol) have fluctuated weakly. As of September 15th, the cost of polymerization has dropped to 5400.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% from the beginning of the month, significantly weakening the cost support for polyester filament.
The demand continues to be sluggish, and the main trend is to replenish inventory for essential needs. Downstream weaving and reloading enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm, mainly relying on the consumption of previous inventory, and their purchasing behavior is very cautious, only maintaining inventory for essential needs. The average production and sales rate of polyester filament factories is only at a low level of 30-40%, indicating a sluggish market transaction volume.
Poor terminal orders: The recovery of terminal textile and clothing demand is slow, and the prospects for overseas orders are also affected by the uncertainty of Sino US trade policies. The raw fabric inventory of the weaving factory is at a high level during the same period, while the profit margin is narrow, which seriously restricts the downstream’s stocking capacity and willingness for raw material polyester filament.
Inventory pressure is rising and factory inventory is accumulating: Due to the continued light production and sales, the inventory pressure of polyester filament factories is constantly increasing. High inventory suppresses prices. In order to alleviate inventory pressure, some companies will choose to offer discounts and promotions, which further suppresses market prices. The operating rate remains high: Despite poor demand, the industry’s operating rate remains relatively high at 91.3%, indicating significant supply pressure.
It is expected that the price of polyester filament will remain weak and fluctuate in the short term, and both polyester filament factories and downstream weaving enterprises are cautious and pessimistic about the future prospects. The market is generally concerned that the National Day holiday will further accumulate inventory, so destocking and shipping is currently the mainstream mentality.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 11th to 18th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations rose from 2290 yuan/ton and then fell to around 2261 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.24% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 2.46%, and a year-on-year drop of 5.83%. The narrow accumulation of methanol inventory in ports, coupled with high inventory levels, continues to suppress the market. Currently, there is no positive boost, and the market performance is weak. Affected by downstream pre holiday restocking and stable demand for olefins in mainland China, the methanol market in mainland China continues to rise.
As of the close on September 18th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2373 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2376 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2339 yuan/ton. It closed at 2346 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 34 yuan or 1.43% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 595422 lots, the position is 942904, and the daily increase is 106296.
On the cost side, some coal mines have temporarily stopped production, and supply has slightly tightened. Coal prices continue to rise, and cost support has rebounded. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market price of glacial acetic acid continues to rise. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is stable with occasional declines. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is stable with small fluctuations. The Henan plant has resumed operation, with an increase in on-site supply, and there is a strong desire for the dimethyl ether factory to reduce inventory. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the overall equipment recovery is less than the loss, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 16th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at a price of 325.5-326.5 US dollars per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 98-99 cents per gallon; The closing price of the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 291.5-292.5 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, as Northwest olefin enterprises cut down on quantity and receive goods, traders will have limited conversion transactions, and downstream purchases will still be dominated by price cutting. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will be consolidating and observing.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the company, the recent (9.8 ~ 9.17) As of September 17, the spot rubber market in China is about 15091 yuan / ton, down 2.11% from September 8, 15416 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the price of collagen raw materials runs at a high level, and the domestic port inventory continues to decline slightly, supporting the natural rubber market; on the other hand, replenishing the demand before the downstream season, cautious market negotiation resistance to high prices, plus the market expects the price of collagen raw materials to fall later, and the price of natural rubber to fall slightly after the previous surge. As of September 17, Qingdao area 24 years Guangken, Baoshima, Haibao all latex Qingdao area mainstream newspaper 15000~15300 yuan/ton.
As of September 17, the price of Thai glue was 56.20 baht / kg, up 0.36% from the 56.00 baht / kg on September 17. The production of natural factors in the previous period of the market for natural rubber collagen decreased, and the supply of raw materials was restored in September with the weather, but still not at a low level, the price of natural rubber raw materials as a whole is still high, and there is some support for the market for natural rubber.
Recently (9.8~9.17), natural rubber inventory continued to go slightly out of stock, and the market atmosphere improved. As of September 14, 2025, Qingdao’s total inventory of Tian Gum Guarantee and General Trade amounted to 586,000 tons, a decrease of 0.56,000 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 0.95%.
Recently (9.8~9.17) downstream tire start overall stable, the natural rubber market just need support. As of September 11, the domestic tire enterprise semi-steel tire start up slightly up to about 7.3%; Shandong tire enterprise all-steel tire start up slightly down to about 6.4%.
Aftermarket Forecast: Current domestic and foreign raw material prices are strong, downstream tire starts to work and stabilizes to support the Tianjin rubber market, Tianjin port inventory drops slightly, plus the arrival of the high season is expected to shock the natural rubber market later.

Aluminum prices fluctuated strongly in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 16, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20960 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.57% from the market average price of 20636.67 yuan/ton on September 1.
Recent favorable factors
1. Macroeconomic policies and expected benefits:
The US PPI fell for the first time in four months in August, and although there were changes in the year-on-year and month on month CPI in August, the overall expectation of a Fed interest rate cut was still strengthened to some extent. As of September 12th, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch showed a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the strengthening of interest rate expectations providing support for aluminum prices. In addition, data from the National Bureau of Statistics in China shows that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month on month in August, and increased by 6.2% year-on-year from January to August. Industrial growth is conducive to supporting aluminum demand.
2. Downstream demand rebounds:
With the arrival of the peak consumption season of “Golden September”, the overall operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has increased by 0.4 percentage points month on month to 62.1%, and the “Golden September” effect continues to strengthen. Among them, the operating rate of the aluminum cable industry increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 65.2%, regional environmental inspections were lifted, and power grid orders supported the rise in operating rates of top enterprises; The operating rate of aluminum profiles has rebounded by 1 percentage point to 54%, the trend of building profiles transforming into industrial materials is accelerating, the processing fee for photovoltaic frames has bottomed out and stabilized, and new orders for automotive profiles have become highlights; The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises remains stable at a high level of 68.6%, and the tank material stocking cycle is approaching its end, highlighting the resilience of demand in the automotive/3C field; The operating rate of the aluminum foil industry remains at a peak level of 71.9%, and the demand for packaging foil and battery foil remains stable.
Recent bearish factors
Changes in social inventory:
On September 15th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumer areas in China recorded 629000 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from September 11th.
Future forecast
Raw material side: The operating capacity of alumina is at a high level and continues to accumulate inventory, with limited cost support for aluminum prices;
Downstream demand side: As the peak season in China gradually approaches, the demand for aluminum ingots in stock has improved, and the operating rate of primary processing enterprises has increased month on month, providing some support for aluminum prices;
Market sentiment: Under the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, the sentiment in the commodity market is relatively strong;
Overall, in the short term, aluminum prices will mainly experience strong fluctuations.