Aluminum prices fluctuated strongly in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 16, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20960 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.57% from the market average price of 20636.67 yuan/ton on September 1.
Recent favorable factors
1. Macroeconomic policies and expected benefits:
The US PPI fell for the first time in four months in August, and although there were changes in the year-on-year and month on month CPI in August, the overall expectation of a Fed interest rate cut was still strengthened to some extent. As of September 12th, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch showed a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the strengthening of interest rate expectations providing support for aluminum prices. In addition, data from the National Bureau of Statistics in China shows that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month on month in August, and increased by 6.2% year-on-year from January to August. Industrial growth is conducive to supporting aluminum demand.
2. Downstream demand rebounds:
With the arrival of the peak consumption season of “Golden September”, the overall operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has increased by 0.4 percentage points month on month to 62.1%, and the “Golden September” effect continues to strengthen. Among them, the operating rate of the aluminum cable industry increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 65.2%, regional environmental inspections were lifted, and power grid orders supported the rise in operating rates of top enterprises; The operating rate of aluminum profiles has rebounded by 1 percentage point to 54%, the trend of building profiles transforming into industrial materials is accelerating, the processing fee for photovoltaic frames has bottomed out and stabilized, and new orders for automotive profiles have become highlights; The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises remains stable at a high level of 68.6%, and the tank material stocking cycle is approaching its end, highlighting the resilience of demand in the automotive/3C field; The operating rate of the aluminum foil industry remains at a peak level of 71.9%, and the demand for packaging foil and battery foil remains stable.
Recent bearish factors
Changes in social inventory:
On September 15th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumer areas in China recorded 629000 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from September 11th.
Future forecast
Raw material side: The operating capacity of alumina is at a high level and continues to accumulate inventory, with limited cost support for aluminum prices;
Downstream demand side: As the peak season in China gradually approaches, the demand for aluminum ingots in stock has improved, and the operating rate of primary processing enterprises has increased month on month, providing some support for aluminum prices;
Market sentiment: Under the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, the sentiment in the commodity market is relatively strong;
Overall, in the short term, aluminum prices will mainly experience strong fluctuations.
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