According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 11th to 18th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations rose from 2290 yuan/ton and then fell to around 2261 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.24% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 2.46%, and a year-on-year drop of 5.83%. The narrow accumulation of methanol inventory in ports, coupled with high inventory levels, continues to suppress the market. Currently, there is no positive boost, and the market performance is weak. Affected by downstream pre holiday restocking and stable demand for olefins in mainland China, the methanol market in mainland China continues to rise.
As of the close on September 18th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2373 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2376 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2339 yuan/ton. It closed at 2346 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 34 yuan or 1.43% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 595422 lots, the position is 942904, and the daily increase is 106296.
On the cost side, some coal mines have temporarily stopped production, and supply has slightly tightened. Coal prices continue to rise, and cost support has rebounded. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market price of glacial acetic acid continues to rise. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is stable with occasional declines. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is stable with small fluctuations. The Henan plant has resumed operation, with an increase in on-site supply, and there is a strong desire for the dimethyl ether factory to reduce inventory. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the overall equipment recovery is less than the loss, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 16th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at a price of 325.5-326.5 US dollars per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 98-99 cents per gallon; The closing price of the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 291.5-292.5 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, as Northwest olefin enterprises cut down on quantity and receive goods, traders will have limited conversion transactions, and downstream purchases will still be dominated by price cutting. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will be consolidating and observing.
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