This week, the price of plasticizer DOP stopped falling and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 21, the price of plasticizer DOP was 10112.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 1.34% compared to the DOP price of 10250 yuan/ton on June 14; Compared to June 19th, the price of DOP has increased by 0.12%. The market for plasticizer raw material phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized, while the price of isooctanol first fell and then rose. The cost of plasticizers has stabilized, and this week the price of plasticizers has rebounded.

This week, the price of raw material isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 21, the price of isooctanol was 9910 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.29% compared to the price of isooctanol on June 14, which was 10040 yuan/ton; The price of isooctanol has increased by 0.10% compared to 9900 yuan/ton on June 20th. This week, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream factories are facing difficulties in sales, and companies have average enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Shandong’s large factories have average shipments, while the price of isooctanol has declined narrowly, with downstream purchases mainly focused on small orders. Isooctanol manufacturers have poor shipments, and downstream customers have a strong demand for purchases, weakening the support for the rise of isooctanol.

This week, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized this week. As of June 21, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8062.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% compared to the price of 8075 yuan/ton on June 14; Compared to the beginning of the month, the price of 8187.5 yuan/ton has decreased by 1.53%. The domestic quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride is 7800-8100 yuan/ton for factory delivery, while the domestic quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride is 7300-7600 yuan/ton for factory delivery. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable. The purchasing situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene first fell and then stabilized. The market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride is weak and stable, while the market for ortho benzene is stable. The market for ortho benzene based phthalic anhydride has slightly declined and then stabilized. This week, the market for phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the price of raw material isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded, the price of phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has rebounded and adjusted; Downstream manufacturers are expected to rise, while demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound. In the future, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded, the price of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, raw material costs have increased, downstream demand is expected to rebound, and the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Aluminum prices fell in June and have recently begun to stabilize. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on June 20, 2024 was 20463.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.73% compared to the market average price of 21256.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (June 1).

This week’s data shows that aluminum prices have stopped falling and stabilized, rebounding by 0.34%.

The price increase driven by cost and macro factors in the early stage is basically offset, and the sentiment in the aluminum ingot market is gradually returning to its original state. On the one hand, there is an expectation of volume increase on the supply side; Due to the steady resumption of production by Yunnan aluminum enterprises, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is at a relatively high level, with a monthly month on month increase of 300000 tons. On the other hand, on the demand side, there is a downward trend in the operating rate of aluminum rods. Coupled with market demand, there are not many new orders for photovoltaic modules and building profiles, which are lower than expected. There is a certain degree of mismatch between supply and demand, coupled with the strong fear of high prices in the market after the previous price increase, aluminum prices experienced a significant pullback in June. Recently, due to falling to the market game level and high aluminum prices outside Shanghai, the export window has opened, and the market has experienced a stabilization of the decline. It is expected that there is a high probability of continuing to improve in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on June 18th was 1033 yuan/ton, which is 961 yuan/ton higher than the average price on June 10th. The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has increased by 7.45%.

2、 Market analysis

In mid June, the price of ammonium sulfate in China has significantly increased. The enterprise has stable production and sufficient market supply. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased, and market inquiries have increased. The rise in international market prices is beneficial for the domestic ammonium sulfate market. As the price of ammonium sulfate continues to rise, downstream customers are beginning to cautiously accept goods, and the upward trend of ammonium sulfate is slowing down. As of June 18th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1045 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1030-1070 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the upward momentum of the ammonium sulfate market has slowed down recently, and the price of ammonium sulfate has adjusted narrowly. At present, there are still positive factors, but downstream caution has increased. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate price will mainly fluctuate, consolidate and operate in the short term.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 14th, the price of isooctanol was quoted at 10040 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of 1.18% compared to the price of isooctanol on June 7th at 10160 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, and downstream factories are facing difficulties in sales. Enterprises have average enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Shandong’s large factories have average shipments, while the price of isooctanol has declined narrowly, with downstream purchases mainly focused on small orders.

This week, the price of raw material propylene rose first and then fell

According to the propylene commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of June 14th, the propylene price was quoted at 6993.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% compared to the fluctuating price of 6914.6 yuan/ton on June 7th; The price of propylene decreased by 0.21% compared to 7008.25 yuan/ton on June 12th. Crude oil prices fluctuate and consolidate, while propylene cost support still exists. This week, propylene prices first rose and then fell; Downstream production of propylene has decreased, downstream customers have just needed to purchase, propylene manufacturers have average shipments, the supply and demand of propylene market are weak, and propylene prices are fluctuating and consolidating.

Downstream plasticizer prices have fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 14th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 10250 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 1.44% compared to the DOP price of 10400 yuan/ton on June 7th. The market for plasticizer raw material phthalic anhydride has declined, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, plasticizer DOP enterprises are operating steadily, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient. Downstream construction is expected to rise, while demand is expected to rebound. The support for the rise of plasticizers still exists.

Future expectations

According to analysts from Business Society’s octanol product data, in terms of cost, the price of propylene first rose and then fell, while the cost support for isooctanol still exists; On the supply side, iso octanol manufacturers have low inventory and average shipments; In terms of demand, downstream plasticizer product prices of isooctanol have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream demand is expected to rebound in the future. Overall, the tight supply and demand for isooctanol are expected to rebound, while cost support remains. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will consolidate strongly in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9558.33 yuan/ton on June 7th, and 9591.67 yuan/ton on June 13th, an increase of 0.35%. The current price has increased by 27.75% compared to last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene has slightly increased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated and increased in the past three months, with a slight increase in the recent market trend. The main reason for the increase is the continuous rise in international oil prices, which has driven the upward trend of pure benzene market and provided strong cost support. However, the losses in the styrene industry continue to expand, and downstream industries are more resistant to high prices, suppressing the increase in the styrene market.

Cost side

Recently, pure benzene has continued to rise overall. At present, the pure benzene port warehouse is at a low level, and the demand side in the East China market is actively stocking up, with spot traders buying up and entering the market. Most refineries in Shandong continue to raise their prices. After the price increase, market buying continued and transactions were better. As of June 13th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in the Shandong market is 9442 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of the year, currently pure benzene is still in the high range, which can provide some cost support for styrene.

Supply side

In June, there were many inspections of the styrene unit. On the 12th, the 600000 ton/year styrene unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical was shut down for two weeks for maintenance. On the 14th, the 80000 ton/year styrene unit of Huaxing Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain. The 500000 ton/year styrene plant of Gulf Chemical is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance for 45 days in July. Zibo Junchen, Satellite Petrochemical, Xinpu Chemical, and Anhui Jiaxi Styrene Units have reduced their load to 70% of operation. The inventory of styrene remains low, and domestic supply remains at a relatively low level, which is beneficial for the styrene market. Under the current profit situation, the enthusiasm of production enterprises to start production is limited, and it is expected that there will be little supply pressure in June.

Demand side

Recently, the three major downstream markets of styrene have experienced two levels and one decline. Among them, domestic ABS prices have fallen. ABS downstream has no centralized procurement plan, and supply pressure is gradually increasing. The transaction volume in the East China market is weak, and the terminal has entered a low demand season. Overall, it is expected that the ABS market will continue to decline in the short term. The PS and EPS market is fluctuating and consolidating. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is 10250-11400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is 11050-12200 yuan/ton. EPS cost support is average, coupled with downstream high price resistance, production and digestion of early finished product inventory are the main factors, and the market has a clear wait-and-see atmosphere, resulting in weak new order transactions.

According to the styrene data analyst from Business Society, the shutdown of styrene units in June resulted in a significant reduction in demand, leading to a decrease in supply expectations. The cost side pure benzene market is strongly supported, and downstream demand is expected to continue to increase. Business Society analysts predict that the styrene market will mainly rise.