1、 Price trend
Pure benzene fell more than in March, down nearly 50% a month, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On March 1, the listing price of pure benzene was 5100-5500 yuan / ton (average price 5380.2 yuan / ton), and on March 31, the listing price of pure benzene was 2550-3200 yuan / ton (average price 2700 yuan / ton), with a monthly decrease of 49.82%.
2、 Analysis and comment
| Thiourea dioxide |
1. Crude oil: in the month, Russia refused to further reduce production, and Saudi Arabia sharply reduced the official price of crude oil in April, and announced to increase its crude oil production in April, opening a deep decline in international oil prices. In the later period, due to the continuous impact of overseas social public events, the world introduced measures to restrict travel, which severely hit oil demand. People predict that global oil demand will drop by more than 10 million barrels per day, and the market is worried about the oversupply of crude oil. Although the governments of many countries have launched economic stimulus plans, the economic activities and fuel demand of many countries are expected to further reduce, and the worry about the sharp decrease of oil demand dominates. Compared with February 28, Brent oil price fell by 32.815 USD / barrel, or 64.99%; WTI oil price fell by 20.43 USD / barrel, or 45.46%.
2. Product: in March, with the resumption of domestic production, the overall operating rate of pure benzene picked up. Although domestic public events have been effectively controlled, large-scale outbreaks abroad have led to a sharp decline in crude oil and related energy chemicals. The downstream demand is weak, and the release of pure benzene capacity is blocked; in addition, the external market plummeted, and the low price hit, and the domestic pure benzene fell seriously. However, crude oil is low in price, with less cost constraints and profit margin. This month Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene seven times, a total of 2750 yuan / ton. Pure benzene, as a product greatly affected by crude oil, has a significant downward trend. The arrival of pure benzene increased this month, and the port inventory accumulated significantly.
3. External market: social public events affected the sharp decline of crude oil, led to a sharp drop in the price of pure benzene in the external market, and had a greater impact on the export of goods sources in Southeast Asia and Europe. In late March, affected by weak downstream demand expectations, factories sold raw materials, and Europe’s pure benzene plummeted, driving Asia’s pure benzene down sharply again. The price of imported pure benzene is low, and the arbitrage window of internal and external market is opened. In March, South Korea’s import of pure benzene fell by 336.67 USD / ton, or 55.96%; East China’s import of pure benzene fell by 311 USD / ton, or 50.65%.
4. Downstream: affected by the demand terminal, the downstream product market of pure benzene is weak, the overall operating rate of the enterprise is declining, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the downstream product price is generally down. At the beginning of the month, the price of styrene in Shandong Province was 6700 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, it was 4650 yuan / ton, down 2050 yuan / ton, down 30.6%. The price of aniline was 6666.67 yuan / ton on the first day and 5633.33 yuan / ton on the 31st day, down 15.5%. The price of phenol in China was 7062.5 yuan / ton on the first day and 5387.5 yuan / ton on the 31st day, a decrease of 23.72%. The price of adipic acid in East China was 8080 yuan / ton on the first day and 6480 yuan / ton on the 31st day, down 15.35%. The price of Shandong caprolactam was 10633.33 yuan / ton on the first day and 9000 yuan / ton on the 31st day, down 15.36%.
| Thiourea |
3、 Future forecast
1. Crude oil: Saudi Arabia and Russia may increase crude oil production in April, further affecting the oil price. Oil prices remain low in the short term. But in the later stage, once the social public events are effectively controlled and production resumes, the oil price may have the opportunity to return to the level of the year before.
2. Domestic and foreign markets: foreign pure benzene enters China, and low price supply continues to impact the domestic market. The decline trend of some downstream products is stronger than that of pure benzene, with limited support for pure benzene; and the overall operating rate of downstream enterprises has declined, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased.
Overall, the fundamentals are not good, and it is difficult for the short-term pure benzene market to improve substantially.
| http://www.pivalicacid.com |