1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of May 28, the reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream area of the initial and high-end is around 300-400 yuan / ton, and the price has been basically stable in the past two weeks. On May 27, the phosphorus ore commodity index was 71.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 38.99% from 117.80 (2012-07-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 39.88% from 51.38, the lowest point on December 24, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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2、 Market analysis
Product: in late May, the market of phosphorus ore in our country did not rise significantly. In addition, the market has been in a weak trend in the recent traditional off-season, and the factory’s shipment volume is average. After many mines in Guizhou and other places reduced the price of phosphorus ore by 10-20 yuan / ton in early May, the overall market is mainly in stable operation at a low level, and the supply and demand in the market is basically balanced.
According to the data monitoring of business agency, the latest price of phosphate rock in China on May 28, 2020:
Enterprise name grade specification date price (yuan / ton) remarks
Guizhou Fuquan Huifa 30% raw ore, May 28, 350 yuan, factory price
Guizhou Fuquan Huifa 28% raw ore May 28 310 yuan factory price
Platform price of 30% raw ore of Guizhou Kaiyang Mining Co., Ltd., 310 yuan on May 28th
30% of the original ore of Xifeng Mining Co., Ltd. in Guizhou Province
Guangxi songgan trade 30% raw ore May 28 350 yuan factory price
Guangxi songgan trade 28% raw ore May 28 310 yuan factory price
30% of the raw ore of Guizhou kaiphosphate Mining Co., Ltd. on May 28, the price of car plate is 330 yuan
32% of raw ore of Guizhou kaiphosphate Mining Co., Ltd. 360 yuan of vehicle price on May 28
30% raw ore of Xinxin phosphate ore in Guizhou, May 28, 320 yuan car plate price
30% high phosphorus and low magnesium ore of Liushugou mining industry in Hubei Province
Yunnan phosphate 29% ammonium phosphate ore May 28 300 yuan car plate price
22% of the original ore of Guizhou Qidu Tiancheng Mining Co., Ltd. on May 28, 140 yuan of car plate price
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Guizhou: the reference quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 300-350 yuan / ton. Among them, the platform price of 30% phosphate rock in Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. in Kaiyang, Guizhou is 310 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May; the vehicle price of 30% grade phosphate rock in Xifeng, Guizhou is 330 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May; the factory price of 28% grade phosphate rock in Huifa Mining Co., Ltd. in Fuquan, Guizhou is 310 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May, and the factory price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 350 yuan / ton compared with the end of the previous period Adjust 10 yuan / ton. Yunnan area: the quotation of 29% grade phosphate ore car plate in Yunnan is about 300 yuan / ton. Hubei area: the quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore (high phosphorus and low magnesium ore) in Liushugou, Hubei Province is 400 yuan / ton. Guangxi region: the phosphorus ore market is in a weak position. The factory price of 28% grade phosphate rock in songgan trade is 310 yuan / ton, and the factory price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 350 yuan.
Industrial chain: in May, the operating rate of Yunnan increased, the market supply increased, and the price of yellow phosphorus gradually decreased, but the range was not very large. The main reason was that yellow phosphorus enterprises basically had no inventory, the on-site spot sales were OK, and the early orders of phosphorus enterprises were still sufficient. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16200-16700 yuan / ton. The quotation in Guizhou is about 16400-16500 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is about 16300-17000 yuan / ton. The overall market performance is average, the downstream procurement is more cautious, and traders mainly wait and see.
3、 Future forecast
According to the analysis of business data analyst, since the beginning of this year, affected by many factors, 2 and March, as the spring planting season, is also the traditional peak season of phosphate rock, but it does not bring a strong rising market to the market. At this stage, it will enter June immediately, and the market has gradually turned into the off-season. It is expected that the follow-up market quotation of phosphate rock may lower slightly to prepare for the order accumulation in the second half of the year 。
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