1、 Price trend:
The crude benzene commodity index at May 31 was 43.87, unchanged from yesterday, 66.72% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 43.65% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
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2、 Market analysis:
In May 2020, crude benzene market rose in shock. The factory price in North China was 2250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 2801.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 24.52%.
Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in May 2020
Price increase after date increase unit: yuan / ton
May 6, 3000200 yuan / ton
May 9, 3150, 150 yuan / ton
May 18, 3250100 yuan / ton
May 21, 3350, 100 yuan / ton
May 27, 3500, 150 yuan / ton
In May 2020, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene for five times, with a cumulative increase of 700 yuan / ton. By the end of the month, Sinopec had implemented 3500 yuan / ton of pure benzene. This month, the pure benzene market was mainly driven by crude oil and positive external market. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. However, at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price; in May, the external market of pure benzene rose sharply, and the import of pure benzene in South Korea rose by 74.33 USD / ton, or 22.96%; the import of pure benzene in East China rose by 66 USD / ton, or 19.35%
In May, international oil prices were generally good, oil producing countries continued to push forward production reduction activities, and the demand for crude oil and refined oil rose to a certain extent. However, the market is still in a state of oscillation, and the uncertainty of trade relations affects the oil price. Compared with April 30, Brent oil price increased by 14.71 USD / barrel, or 74.78%; WTI oil price increased by 13.99 USD / barrel, or 64.03%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 32.385 USD / barrel, or 48.51%; WTI oil price decreased by 24.93 USD / barrel, or 41.02%.
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5.1 after the holiday, the bidding price of crude benzol has been greatly increased. At the beginning of the month, the crude oil has gone up, the bulk commodity has gone up as a whole, and the price of pure benzene has gone up, which is good for the crude benzol Market. The price adjustment of crude benzol bidding on April 30 before the holiday was shelved for various reasons, and after the holiday, the bidding price has been greatly increased due to the favorable fundamentals. The following downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have high cost pressure, high crude benzene inventory and weak purchasing interest, which have double effects on crude benzene entering the high consolidation period, and the market is stable. In recent years, some coking enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi have been limited in starting operation and the operating rate has been reduced, but the crude benzene supply has not been greatly affected, the social inventory is relatively sufficient, the enthusiasm of traders to enter the market is relatively low, the market is slightly cold, although the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene has slightly increased, the overall operating rate is still at a low level, and the demand for crude benzene is limited. As of the 29th, the mainstream price of crude benzene in Shandong was 2800 yuan / ton, which was increased by 600 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.
The price of styrene in the downstream product market in Shandong Province was 5100 yuan / ton on May 1, and 5416.67 yuan / ton on May 29, up 6.21% this month. The highest price of this month is from May 19 to 24, with a price of 5500 yuan / ton. At present, the rise of styrene is mainly affected by crude oil, and the actual spot shipments are relatively small. Aniline: the price of aniline was 4800 yuan / ton on May 1, 4466.67 yuan / ton on May 29, down 6.94% this month. Aniline fell twice this month, while the rest remained stable. The MDI and auxiliary operating rate in the downstream of aniline are still low, and the demand for aniline is insufficient.
The aftermarket business community believes that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producing countries are considering extending the production reduction period to the end of 2020. OPEC will hold another meeting on June 10 to continue to pay attention to the production reduction meeting. And oil price is not only affected by supply and demand, but also by economic constraints. Uncertainty in trade relations could trigger oil price shocks. Crude benzene inventory is high in the near future, the demand for downstream hydrogenated benzene is general, lack of demand support, crude benzene price is mainly high consolidation, follow-up still need to focus on the trend of crude oil and pure benzene.
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