1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic soda ash is mainly weak and stable this week. The average market price in East China at the beginning of the week was about 1273.33 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 1266.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 0.52% and a decrease of 22.92% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of light soda ash on July 23 was 64.96, down 0.34 points compared with yesterday, 44.88% lower than 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 2.87% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Market analysis
According to the business agency, there is no obvious sign of improvement in the downstream demand of soda ash market at present, and the market price is still dominated by large, stable and small movements. In North China, the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1250-1350 yuan / ton and that of heavy soda is 1350-1450 yuan / ton; in East China, the price of light soda ash is about 1100-1250 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda ash is 1200-1350 yuan / ton; in Central China, the market price of light soda ash is about 1100-1250 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda ash is 1200-1350 yuan / ton At present, the mainstream market price is about 1000-1100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1100-1200 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is light, the demand of downstream market is not recovered well, the enterprise inventory is high, and the active shipment is mainly, and the market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will consolidate the market in the short term.
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In terms of raw materials: the well salt is greatly affected by the maintenance of downstream soda ash enterprises, and the market atmosphere is poor, and most of them are purchased on demand; the sea salt stock is sufficient and the market is stable; the downstream centralized maintenance of lake salt, coupled with the light soda market, leads to weak delivery and follow-up.
Demand: this week, the domestic glass market is mainly stable, and some enterprises have raised prices. The overall trend of glass spot market in East China is fair, and the situation of production enterprises leaving the warehouse has not changed much, and the market confidence has increased month on month. At present, the order situation of downstream processing enterprises is fair. Affected by rainfall and other factors in some areas, the delivery time to downstream real estate enterprises is slightly delayed, but the overall processing order volume can maintain for about one month. Production enterprises in the near future, the situation is OK, also have strong confidence in the later. It is believed that in the traditional sales peak season, the terminal market demand will also start in succession. Therefore, although the inventory of some manufacturers is on the high side, the willingness to support the price is relatively strong. Recently, the number of glass in Central China entering the East China market has decreased, mainly due to the impact of Yangtze River shipping. With the approaching of traditional sales peak season, the market confidence of production enterprises has improved, and the willingness to stand out is also relatively strong.
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 28th week (7.13-7.17) of 2020, there are 2 kinds of commodities rising and 2 kinds of falling commodities in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and 1 kind of commodity is up and down to 0. The main commodities that rose were electricity (0.73%) and hydrochloric acid (0.70%); the main commodities that fell were caustic soda (- 0.98%) and PVC (- 0.34%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.02%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the analysts of the business agency, the inventory of soda ash is still large at this stage, and the glass inventory is still at a high level. The downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, while traders are more on the wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic soda ash market will be sorted out in the short term, with small fluctuations.
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