1、 Price trend:
According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda is mainly weak and stable. In early September, the average price in Shandong market was 475 yuan / ton, and in the middle of September it was 452.5 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 4.74% and a decrease of 36.93% in the same period of last year. On September 14, the commodity index of caustic soda was 65.11, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, which was 68.53% lower than the peak of 206.87 on November 14, 2017. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Market analysis
The price of domestic liquid caustic soda is basically stable, the awareness of price rising in upstream is strong, the demand of downstream is weak, and the rise is weak. At present, the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda: the price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 400-500 yuan / T. the price pressure of domestic liquid caustic soda is large, the downstream demand is weak, and the pressure is constantly exerted, and the supply of caustic soda is sufficient. It is expected that the price of caustic soda in Shandong will be weak in the future. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is in a weak position. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 400-500 yuan / ton. The price pressure of domestic liquid caustic soda is large, and the downstream demand is weak, so the pressure is constantly exerted. However, the supply of caustic soda is sufficient. It is expected that the price of caustic soda in Shandong will be weak in the future. Caustic soda in Henan is in a weak position. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 1500-1600 yuan / T (100 yuan). The downstream demand is general, the market transaction atmosphere is not good, and the transaction is general. It is expected that the price of caustic soda will be in a weak steady state in the near future. Market trading is not warm, downstream receiving goods carefully.
At present, the domestic liquid chlorine market is still maintained at a high level. The mainstream of Shandong market is 900-1000 yuan / ton, the downstream demand of Shandong market is stable and the price is mainly maintained at high level; the mainstream transaction volume of Hebei market is 1000-1100 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction volume of Henan market is 950-1000 yuan / ton. It is predicted that the liquid chlorine will still be strong in the later stage.
Demand: on the downstream side, the recent production reduction of overseas alunorte alumina plant and the decrease of supply have led to the rapid rise of overseas alumina prices. However, the recent arrival of low-cost alumina in Hong Kong has little impact on the domestic aluminum market. The change of terminal demand is limited. The price of liquid caustic soda in most areas remained weak and stable. In Shandong, the main production area, the price dropped to a low level, and the overall supply exceeded demand.
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 36th week (9.7-9.11) of 2020, there are 0 kinds of commodities rising and 3 kinds of falling commodities in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and 2 kinds of commodities are up and down to 0. The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 4.23%), hydrochloric acid (- 2.59%) and PVC (- 0.38%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 1.44%.
Business agency analysts believe: the domestic price of liquid caustic soda is basically stable, mainly price deadlock. The weakening of downstream demand leads to price weakening. The overall supply of caustic soda exceeds the demand, and there is no sign of improvement in demand. Generally speaking, the downstream demand can’t pull the price of caustic soda better for the time being. The price of caustic soda is mainly operated in a short-term or weak stable way, and the downstream market demand is the specific factor.
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