1、 Price trend
According to the data of business club’s block list, aniline continued to rise this week, and the price reached a new high. On March 12, the price of aniline was 12300-12500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 12300-12500 yuan / ton in Nanjing. On March 21, the price of aniline was 14000-15500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 13500 yuan / ton in Nanjing, with an average price increase of 15.9% over last week, 81.43% over the beginning of the year and 139.55% over the same period of last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
In terms of cost, the current and futures prices of styrene, the main downstream of pure benzene, fell sharply this week, and the profit space was greatly compressed. Pure benzene was driven down by bad news. Crude oil plummeted on Thursday, which was bad for domestic bulk commodity market. Pure benzene, as the downstream of crude oil, was greatly affected by crude oil, and the focus of spot market weakened. This week, pure benzene port inventory continued to fall, in the de inventory channel, inventory pressure is small, limiting its decline. This week, the price of some SINOPEC enterprises in North China was lowered to 6500 yuan / ton, while that in other regions was basically 6650 yuan / ton. On Sunday (March 21), the price of pure benzene ranged from 6003 to 6650 yuan / ton (average price was 6450 yuan / ton), which was 3.3% lower than that of last week and 67.97% higher than that of the same period last year.
The price of nitric acid rose at the beginning of this week and then stabilized. On Friday (March 19), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2050 yuan / ton, up 3.36% from last week, 2.5% from the beginning of this month and 32.26% from the same period last year.
The price difference between aniline and pure benzene widened, and the profit margin of aniline was better. The 200000 t / a aniline plant in Dongying, Jinling was shut down for maintenance. The supply of aniline in Shandong was tight, and the price rose in the week. Enterprises in East China are mainly engaged in the preparation of shipping goods, with less spot delivery. In addition, driven by the high price of aniline in Shandong, the price rose within the week.
3、 Future expectation
In terms of cost, the current downstream styrene market is the main reason restricting the trend of pure benzene. It is expected that the short-term pure benzene will follow the shock finishing of styrene, and there will be a slight decline. However, due to the impending overhaul of several pure benzene units, the low inventory of Sinopec pure benzene and the high price support, the pure benzene market still has a rebound momentum. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.
The lower reaches have strong resistance to high price aniline. I heard that some downstream factories have parking plans, or the demand for aniline has decreased. But at present, Jinling Dongying aniline plant is still under maintenance, and the spot supply is tight. Overall, it is expected that the high price of aniline will remain strong in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the follow-up of downstream demand and the dynamic of aniline plant.
| Thiourea |