1、 Price trend
According to the business news agency’s block list data, the price of mixed xylene continued to decline this week. On March 14, the price of mixed xylene was 5750 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 21), the price was 5530 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton or 3.83% from last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
This week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene price adjustment range is – 500 / 0 (yuan / ton). Xylene inventory of ports in East China decreased this week, while that of ports in South China rose slightly. Weak downstream demand, coupled with the collapse of crude oil, the market mentality is empty, mixed xylene fell in shock. In terms of external market, as of March 19, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 710 US dollars / ton, down 43 US dollars / ton or 5.71% on March 12, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 727 US dollars / ton, down 44 US dollars / ton or 5.71% on March 12.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil plummeted this week, which flattened the previous gains. International oil prices have plummeted under the pressure of multiple bad news such as the continuous growth of US crude oil stocks for four weeks, the tightening of blockade measures caused by a new wave of epidemic in Europe, the blocked vaccination, the stronger US dollar exchange rate and the soaring US debt yield. On March 12, Brent fell $5.565/barrel, or 8.03%; WTI fell $4.2/barrel, or 6.4%
Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is more stable than last week, the price is 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year, up 21.82% year on year. The domestic supply of p-xylene is general, but there are many overhauls of overseas units, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene remains high. The recent trend of international crude oil prices fluctuated, but the PX price did not change much. As of the 19th, the closing prices in Asia were 778-780 US dollars / ton, FOB South Korea and 796-798 US dollars / ton, CFR China.
In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fluctuated this week and rose slightly. The price was 4497.73 yuan / ton on March 14 and 4507.27 yuan / ton on March 21, up 0.21% from last week and 28.38% from the same period last year. PTA plant centralized maintenance to ease the supply pressure, and the downstream polyester inventory pressure is not big, the contradiction between market supply and demand has eased.
In terms of ox market, the price of ox this week was flat compared with last week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, up 34.78% compared with the same period last year. The results show that the supply of o-benzene is sufficient, the external quotation fluctuates and falls; the cost side weakens and falls; the downstream quotation weakens and falls, and the demand is just demand-oriented. O-benzene transaction enthusiasm is general, o-benzene market is weak and temporarily stable.
3、 Future forecast
Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
Multiple negative pressure, crude oil fell, xylene mixed cost support weakened; weak follow-up of downstream demand, rigid demand dominated. It is expected that the price of mixed xylene will still drop in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of international crude oil, the arrival volume of mixed xylene, the dynamic of domestic enterprises and the impact of downstream demand changes on the price of mixed xylene.
| Thiourea |