Zinc price trend
According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of zinc fluctuated and adjusted in March, and the price of zinc market rose weakly. As of March 24, the average price of zinc was 21843.33 yuan / ton, up 1.10% from 21606.67 yuan / ton on March 1.
Domestic zinc Market
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2021, China’s zinc ingot production reached 1.075 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. From January to February, China’s imports of refined zinc increased 60% year on year to 87345 tons. The domestic zinc ingot supply increased and the zinc market was short.
The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has issued the double control target task of energy consumption in 2021, and determined the target task of reducing the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 3% and controlling the energy consumption increment within 5 million tons of standard coal in 2021. The growth rate of total energy consumption was controlled at about 1.9%, and the energy consumption per unit of industrial added value (equal value) decreased by more than 4%. Increasing energy consumption control in various parts of the country has a certain impact on the production of mines and other enterprises. Some zinc mines are shut down, but compared with the overall output, the impact of shutting down production is limited.
According to the survey data at the beginning of March, in 130 galvanizing production enterprises, 51 production lines were shut down for maintenance, and the overall operating rate was 80.83%; the capacity utilization rate was 71.53%, which was 1.84% higher than last week; the weekly output was 860400 tons, which was 22100 tons higher than last week; in 47 color coating production enterprises, 9 production lines were shut down for maintenance, and the overall operating rate was 91.89%; the capacity utilization rate was 77.4%, which was 3.5% higher than last week 1%; the weekly output was 21.41 tons, an increase of 9700 tons compared with last week; the warehouse inventory of coated steel coil in the main domestic market: 1.291 million tons of galvanized steel, an increase of 38500 tons on a week-on-week basis; 269500 tons of color coating, an increase of 12800 tons on a week-on-week basis. The total inventory of coating and plating was 1.5605 million tons, an increase of 51300 tons per week. It can be seen from the statistical data that the output of the downstream industry chain of zinc city rises, the downstream operating rate rises slowly, the demand of zinc city rises, and the market of zinc city is good.
Zinc imports
According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, from January to December 2020, China’s import volume of zinc ore reached 3.707 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%. From January to February 2021, China’s imports of zinc ore and concentrate totaled 680100 physical tons, China’s imports of zinc ingots totaled 88200 metal tons from January to February, and China’s imports of unwrought zinc alloy totaled 10500 tons from January to February. In 2020, the import volume of domestic zinc ore will increase greatly, and the supply of zinc market will be sufficient. However, the import volume of zinc market will be stable from January to February in 21. The supply of zinc in the city is generally sufficient.
Zinc processing fee
Due to the shortage of mine supply, the processing fee paid by the miner to the smelter for refining zinc decreased from $300 / t a year ago to $200 / T in 2021. China’s domestic zinc concentrate processing fee fell to 3600-4200 yuan / ton in March, the lowest level since September 2018, far lower than 6500 yuan / ton in early 2020. Lower processing fee may force zinc smelters to cut production. The output of zinc smelters decreased, the supply of zinc market decreased, and the market of zinc market rose.
Analysis summary and Prospect
Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, said: Recently, affected by the epidemic, the EU’s economic recovery has been frustrated, the nonferrous plate is under pressure, and the zinc market is weakening. However, in the long run, the strengthening of energy consumption control in China limits the increase of zinc market output to a certain extent. The low zinc concentrate processing fees also hit the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises. The probability of output decline in the future of zinc market increases. The increase of imported zinc alleviates the decrease of domestic zinc market supply, and the supply of zinc market is generally sufficient. However, the downstream of zinc industry chain started to rise, the demand for zinc ingots slowly recovered, and the future supply of zinc market is still tight. Zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future, zinc market is cautiously optimistic.
| Thiourea |