price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market was weak and consolidated in early July, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a narrow decline. As of July 9th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14416.67 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.35% compared to early July.
cause analysis
On the supply side: In early July, domestic PC aggregation enterprises saw frequent maintenance and load reduction. The short-term shutdowns of Pingmei Shenma in the early stage have not been restored. Recently, enterprises have successively announced maintenance plans, and there are five load reduction shutdown devices in the industry within the range. The average operating level has been lowered to 77%, and the weekly average production has been narrowly reduced to around 61000 tons. However, the long-term supply of PC is abundant, coupled with limited production losses in the first half of the year, high inventory levels remain stagnant, and the on-site supply of goods still maintains a sufficient level. The improvement of shipment pressure is limited, and the market supply side has average support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A fell and then fluctuated in early July. Within the range, upstream acetone and phenol fluctuated and fell, while bisphenol A was also affected by supply and demand contradictions, with little change in demand and a lack of upward momentum in the market. Overall, the intraday market trend of bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs.
On the demand side: As the domestic hot weather increases in July, the downstream factories of PC are experiencing a decrease in load, and stocking is mainly due to weak demand. July officially entered the traditional PC consumption off-season, further dragging down the consumer end. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the supply-demand contradiction has not improved within ten days. At present, terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing new orders, and their trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Merchants tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and the flow of goods in the market is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market experienced weak consolidation in early July. The upstream bisphenol A market has declined, providing poor support for the cost value of PC. The overall load of domestic PC aggregation plants has been reduced, but the reduction in load is limited, and the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. Downstream demand has officially entered the off-season, and businesses are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. However, with low PC prices and limited downward space, the current market is characterized by both long and short positions, and it is expected that the PC market will enter a stalemate in the future.
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