1、 Price trend
According to the data of business club’s block list, pure benzene stopped falling this week and the price showed an upward trend. On March 28, the price of pure benzene was 5953-6350 yuan / ton (average price was 6280 yuan / ton); on Sunday (April 4), the price of pure benzene was 6450-6650 yuan / ton (average price was 6520 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 240 yuan / ton or 3.82% compared with last week, and 169.42% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
This week, pure benzene continued to follow the trend of styrene, and the price rose. The price of EPS, PS and ABS in the downstream of styrene recovered, the price of styrene also rose rapidly, and the price of pure benzene rose along with the trend. During the week, Petronas and Japan’s ENEOS units were shut down, and the price of pure benzene in Asia rose, supporting the domestic pure benzene market. This week, East China port inventory continued to decline, is still in the channel to the warehouse. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 150 yuan / ton to 6500 yuan / ton, and the listed price of some refineries in North China increased by 300 yuan / ton to 6450 yuan / ton.
In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Thursday (April 1) was 856.67 US dollars / ton, up 38.34 US dollars / ton or 4.69% from March 26, and the reference price of import in East China was 865 US dollars / ton, up 35.5 US dollars / ton or 4.28% from March 26.
In terms of crude oil, OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production from May, and Saudi Arabia will gradually reduce the number of additional voluntary production cuts. On March 26, Brent fell $1.61 per barrel, or 2.52%; WTI rose $0.52 per barrel, or 0.85%.
Downstream: styrene: the sharp drop in crude oil helped styrene fall to near the cash flow. With strong support from the cost side, the price of styrene stopped falling and rebounded. With strong expectation from the cost side, short supply at the end of the month, goods preparation during the Qingming holiday and tight spot supply in April, the market bull confidence was boosted and the price of styrene rebounded. On April 4, the price of sample enterprises was 9016.67 yuan / ton, up 7.77% from last week, and 91.84% from the same period last year.
Aniline: aniline stopped rising and turned down this week. The price of downstream polymerization MDI fell, the profit margin narrowed, the resistance to high price aniline was strong, and the follow-up was general. In addition, a 200000 t / a plant in Jinling Dongying will be restarted, and the 100000 t / a aniline plant in Dongying Huatai will be restarted soon, so the market supply is expected to increase. Market participants were short of outlook, and aniline prices fell during the week. On April 4, the price of aniline in Shandong was 13000-13200 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 13000-13500 yuan / ton, down 7.14% from last week and up 143.75% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, although OPEC + decided to increase production, the market is still optimistic about the future demand prospect of oil market, and crude oil inventory may gradually enter the process of depolarization in the second quarter. Biden’s Government previously launched a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, and is currently brewing $2.3 trillion in infrastructure stimulus measures. With the acceleration of vaccination in Europe, the economy will gradually enter the recovery track.
Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: from the supply side, in April, domestic styrene factories had more maintenance, and the new production capacity will be offset by the reduced production capacity. Domestic supply may increase limited, and the pressure is not big. In addition, the import volume of terminals will maintain the low level of the contract. On the demand side, the overall operating rate of the downstream is acceptable, and the demand for styrene remains rigid, but the demand side has not recovered. Crude oil is still expected to pick up in the later stage, pure benzene in the cost side is basically good, ethylene is temporarily stable, styrene cost support is acceptable, and styrene is expected to continue to run with strong oscillation in the short term.
In the later stage, the amount of pure benzene arriving at the port is still limited, the port is still in the channel of destocking, the enterprise inventory is not high, and the pressure of shipment is not high. Short term pure benzene is expected to follow crude oil, styrene market fluctuations. With the entrance of new styrene plant, the demand for pure benzene has a certain support. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.
| Thiourea |