1、 Price trend:
According to the data of business club’s block list, in early April, the domestic PA6 market generally fell at a high level, and the spot price mostly dropped. As of April 12, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for CNMC 2.75-2.85 was about 14800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.33% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 42.31% compared with the same period last year.
2、 The influencing factors were analyzed
In terms of upstream caprolactam, in the first half of last month, the tightening of external petrochemical industrial chain supply gradually exhausted the positive effect on caprolactam, and the price began to fall after reaching the high point of the range in the middle of the month. In the first ten days of this month, the domestic spot price of caprolactam continued to callback. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic average price was 13100 yuan / ton before publishing. The supply side continued to be abundant. Although the support from the cost side was still strong, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market put pressure on the market. At present, the operating rate of domestic caprolactam manufacturers is still high, and the on-site supply may continue to accumulate. Next, we will enter the peak maintenance season. However, in order to ease the current situation of oversupply, we need to wait for the major factories to start maintenance in late April. It is suggested that we should pay close attention to the manufacturers’ maintenance plans in the near future.
The price of caprolactam continued to fall, the cost support of PA6 was weakened, and the market continued to decline. At present, the decline of PA6 market has lasted for more than a month. In addition to the weakening of upstream price, another important factor comes from PA6 industry itself. At present, domestic PA6 supply is strong, demand is weak, market transaction power is insufficient, and trading is poor, which is a drag on the focus of offer. Traders and factories began to accumulate inventory, and the high inventory and the drop of spot reduced the profit of polymerization plant. Recently, the profit situation of domestic polymerization plants is not good, and most manufacturers have negative profit situation, which leads to the passive reduction of negative profit of some units. At present, the operating rate of the industry has dropped to 70%, and it is likely to continue to decline.
3、 Future forecast:
Business analysts believe: in early April, the upstream caprolactam of PA6 continued the previous correction and continued to go down, and the cost support of PA6 was weakened. At present, the purchase intention of PA6 downstream plants is not strong, the wait-and-see atmosphere is rising, and the overall demand is weak. Businesses actively let profits go, while the industry passively reduces its burden. Overall, the current fundamentals of PA6 are mainly negative, and it is expected that the price of PA6 will continue to decline.
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