1、 Price trend
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According to the data of business news agency’s block list, pure benzene first fell and then rose this week, and the price rose compared with last week. On April 11, the price of pure benzene was 6373-6850 yuan / ton (average price was 6664 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (April 18), the price of pure benzene was 6750-6950 yuan / ton (average price was 6820 yuan / ton), with an average price increase of 156 yuan / ton or 2.34% over last week and 103.58% over the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
This week, pure benzene followed the trend of styrene, first fell and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the decline of styrene led to the weakening of pure benzene in East China. In the second half of the week, styrene futures rebounded. The spot supply of styrene in some areas was tight, and the price rose, while pure benzene rose. This week, the port is still in the channel of destocking. Although the speed of picking up goods is slowing down, the number of new arrivals is less. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 6850 yuan / ton, which strengthened the bottom support and boosted the market mentality.
In terms of external market, the price of pure benzene in Asia continued to rise this week, driven by crude oil. On Friday (April 16), the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market was 937 US dollars / ton, up 75.33 US dollars / ton or 8.74% compared with April 9, and the import reference price of East China was 931 US dollars / ton, up 56 US dollars / ton or 6.4% compared with April 9.
In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil news was positive and the price rose. Good news: IEA and OPEC increase global crude oil demand, US commercial crude oil inventory decreases continuously, and refinery operation rate increases; bad news: OPEC + decides to gradually increase crude oil production, and the epidemic situation in Europe and other places is severe. On April 9, Brent rose $3.64/barrel, or 5.85%; WTI rose $3.84/barrel, or 6.47%.
Downstream: styrene: this week, the price of styrene dropped first and then rose, which was higher than that of last week. On April 18, the price of sample enterprises was 9210 yuan / ton, which was 4.26% higher than that of last week, and 78.83% higher than that of the same period last year. Crude oil prices rose, pure benzene and ethylene followed the strong trend, and styrene prices in the external market were firm, providing good support for the domestic market. As of April 14, the inventory in East China was 6.9 tons, down by 6000 tons in the week, and the inventory in ports was 95400 tons, down by 11100 tons in the week. In the downstream, the price of EPS rose, the wait-and-see mood was strong, and the transaction was general; the price of PS and ABS remained stable, and the transaction was just needed.
Aniline: the price of aniline continued to fall this week. Aniline plant operating rate is high, the market supply is sufficient, the enterprise price reduction row inventory. Aniline prices fell, driving the downstream follow-up to positive. In the second half of the week, horizontal arrangement was maintained. On April 18, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10200-10500 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 10500 yuan / ton, down 14.75% from last week and up 87.95% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, there is still upward momentum for crude oil in the later stage. Crude oil trend mainly focuses on OPEC + crude oil production change, US commercial crude oil inventory and refined oil inventory, and global epidemic news
Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: strong cost support, low inventory, tight spot, pushing up the price. However, as the price of styrene rebounded, the downstream acceptance of styrene declined, some markets began to resist, transaction volume decreased, and terminal demand continued to be weak. Starting next week, domestic overhaul units will be restarted, and new units will be put into operation. It is expected that the short-term spot tension in styrene market will be eased, suppressing the rising space of styrene.
Sinopec’s high price is strong, supporting the pure benzene market. Next week, the downstream styrene plant will be restarted, which will support the demand for pure benzene. Overall, short-term pure benzene prices continue to follow crude oil, styrene price fluctuations, prices firm. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.
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