On April 19, in response to a reporter’s question, Meng Wei, spokesman of the national development and Reform Commission, said that on the whole, this is the result of multiple factors such as the gradual recovery of the global economy, the short-term adjustment of the relationship between supply and demand, abundant liquidity and investment speculation, which has the characteristics of repair and stage. At the same time, we also see that the recovery of the world economy is still unstable, and there is no overall and trend change in the supply and demand of bulk commodities, so the price does not have the basis for long-term rise.
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According to the data monitored by the business society (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), the mainstream average price of PVC in China on April 25 was 8962.5 yuan / ton, up 3.17% from the beginning of the month and 64.83% from the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
Since the Spring Festival in 2021, driven by the bull market of chemical bulk commodities, most of the bulk commodity prices have risen, and the domestic PVC market has also shown a rapid rise mode. Since January, it has increased by about 22% in the past five months, with a year-on-year increase of about 65%. In the recent downward trend of PE, PP and other plastic products, it is particularly eye-catching, and it can be said that PVC is now at a historical high, And led to the rise of the industrial chain market.
In April, when the peak season comes, PVC continues to rise, with an increase of about 3% in the month, and the market is good. In April, PVC was boosted by the demand in the peak season, the device maintenance, the external market was good, the market was strong, the raw material was high and so on. As a result, the price of PVC fluctuated higher, and the overall market was up and down, which was more volatile. Since the return of the Qingming Festival, PVC market opened up the rising mode, the center of gravity moved up. Around the middle of the year, the market was weak, and the transaction of high price PVC was blocked, and the downstream transmission was not smooth, resulting in a slight price correction. After a short rest for a few days, PVC continued to rise in the second half of the month, and repeatedly rose above 9000 yuan, returning to a high level. Near the May Day holiday, there are many pre festival goods in the downstream, which have fairly good support. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, and the inventory of manufacturers is not under pressure. Therefore, PVC is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and mainly operates at a high level.
Driven by the continuous rise of PVC, the price of PVC middle and downstream industry chain has also been increased to varying degrees to ease the cost pressure. However, the rising speed of raw materials is faster than the increase of profits of downstream enterprises. In the first quarter, some enterprises lost money in production, so they have strong resistance, only maintain the purchase of just need, and lack of inquiry enthusiasm. In April, driven by infrastructure construction, the rigid demand for glass, cement and other products, including PVC, increased, and the building materials industry entered the peak consumption season. The starting load of PVC downstream profiles, pipes, membrane materials and other products enterprises gradually increased, new orders increased, and the social inventory was lower than that of the same period last year, indicating that the demand was still good, and the upward support for PVC prices was gradually strengthened.
region varieties technology April 25 remarks
East China PVC Calcium carbide process 9080-9150 yuan / ton Delivery
south China PVC Calcium carbide process 9000-9150 yuan / ton Delivery
North China PVC Calcium carbide process 8960-9050 yuan / ton To
southwest PVC Calcium carbide process 8900-9000 yuan / ton To
In terms of spot price, the main quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 8700-9100. In Hangzhou area, the pvc5 calcium carbide interval is 9000-9200 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou area is 9050-9150 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 9000-9150 yuan / ton; Prices have risen in various markets.
Futures rose strongly to above 9000 yuan, driving the trend of spot price. On April 25, the market was closed. On April 23, v2109 contract opened at 8925 with the highest price of 9050 and the lowest price of 8855, closing at 9040, up 2.84%. The turnover was 445000, the position was 457600, and the position was increased by 46700.
International crude oil. On April 23, international oil prices rebounded. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was 61.83 US dollars / barrel, up 0.40 US dollars or 0.65%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was at US $66.11/barrel, up US $0.71 or 1.1%, mainly due to the favorable economic data of the United States and Europe, and the prospect of economic recovery. However, the concerns caused by the surge of new cases in India and Japan Limited the rise of oil prices.
Ethylene, April 23, European ethylene market quotation, FD northwest Europe quotation 1350-1363 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quotation 1257-1268 US dollars / ton, up 8 US dollars / ton, April 23, American ethylene market quotation, FD American Gulf quotation 1112-1124 US dollars / ton, recent American ethylene market quotation is stable, demand is poor, April 23, Asian ethylene market quotation, CFR Northeast Asia offers us $1102-1110 / T, CFR Southeast Asia offers us $1047-1055 / T, and the price is mainly stable. Affected by the price rise of upstream crude oil, the ethylene market may mainly rise in the future.
On April 23, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose, with the reference price of 4183.33 yuan / ton, up 2.87% compared with that at the beginning of the week. The price of raw material orchid charcoal was low and the cost of calcium carbide was generally supported. PVC market in the lower reaches of the recent high consolidation, maintenance completed, downstream customers on calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm in general. Calcium carbide rose slightly in the future/ p>
3、 Future forecast
According to PVC analysts of business news agency, PVC market continued to rise in April, demand expectation was better in peak season, futures prices rose strongly, driving the trend of spot. In addition, there were many stock preparation operations in the downstream before holidays, manufacturers had no pressure on inventory, and raw material calcium carbide prices continued to rise. Therefore, PVC is easy to rise in the short term, but difficult to fall. High level operation is the main reason. In the medium and long term, we should also pay attention to macro news and demand guidance, Beware of callbacks.
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