According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on July 14, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 9012.5 yuan / ton, up 0.14% from 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 1.23% month on month, and up 37.12% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
In the first half of 2021, the PVC market was operating at a high level, and the price once approached 10000 yuan. Since June, the off-season effect of the market has continued to this day. In the first half of July, the PVC market was generally stable, the price fluctuation was less than 1%, the adjustment was not much, and the price was still high. Recently, the price of PVC futures fluctuated significantly, and tried to rebound many times, but stopped at 9000 yuan. For the spot market, the boost was limited. Most enterprises adjusted the price by 50 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation, and the basis of futures and cash gradually decreased. At present, in the off-season, the start-up of the downstream products industry is declining, and there is still resistance to high price PVC. They just need to purchase, and the gas is not enough. In July, the number of maintenance enterprises is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the sales of enterprises are under certain pressure. The mentality of the operators is negative. On the whole, the supply and demand side are weakening. However, in the near future, the price of raw material calcium carbide is rising, and the cost side supports PVC, which is not easy to fall deeply, It’s difficult to distinguish between long and short, mostly with small fluctuations.
In terms of spot price, the main quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 9000-9150 yuan / ton. Pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou area is 9050-9150 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou area is 9000-9150 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 9050-9150 yuan / ton; The market fluctuated slightly.
Futures, futures prices continue to rebound, but not enough to boost the spot market. July 14 v2109 contract opening price: 8890, the highest price: 8975, the lowest price: 8865, position: 432886, settlement price: 8920, yesterday settlement: 8885, up: 35.
For external price, Taiwan Formosa Plastics Co., Ltd. of China issued a new shipping schedule quotation in August, with CFR India down 60 to 1330 US dollars / ton, CFR China down 30 to 1200-1210 US dollars / ton, FOB Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia down 50 to 1190-1200 US dollars / ton, and FOB Northeast Asia to Vietnam down 10 to 1200 US dollars / ton,
region technology 7 / 14 (yuan / ton) 7 / 1 (yuan / ton) Up and down remarks
East China Calcium carbide process 9030-9110 9030-9010 0/+100 Delivery
south China Calcium carbide process 9030-9130 9080-9150 – 50/-20 Delivery
North China Calcium carbide process 8950-9030 8930-9010 + 20/+20 To
southwest Calcium carbide process 9000-9100 8950-9100 + 50/0 To
For international crude oil, on July 13, international oil prices rose. The settlement price of the main contract in WTI crude oil futures market of the United States was US $75.25/barrel, or US $1.15 or US $1.60%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $75.84/barrel, or US $0.68 or US $0.90%. The divergence of OPEC supply increase in oil producing countries is pending, but the market generally expects that it should be tightened in the short term, which is supported by the favorable US inventory data, and the oil price continues to strengthen.
Ethylene, July 13, the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 1158-1176 US dollars / ton, up 66 US dollars / ton, the recent rise in the US ethylene market, good demand. On July 13, the European ethylene market quotation, FD northwest Europe quoted 1157-1168 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 1060-1068 US dollars / ton, up 4 US dollars / ton. On July 13, the price of ethylene in Asia was 980-990 US dollars / ton in Northeast Asia and 930-940 US dollars / ton in Southeast Asia. Recently, ethylene prices in Asia are mainly stable. Affected by the price rise of upstream crude oil, ethylene market may rise in the later stage.
On July 14, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose, the price of orchid charcoal in the upper reaches was high, the cost support was good, the PVC market in the lower reaches rose slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide increased. In the future, calcium carbide rose slightly, and a new round of power rationing in Inner Mongolia began, calcium carbide production decreased, and supply exceeded demand.
3、 Future forecast
Business community PVC analysts believe that the current supply and demand are weak, PVC futures rebound shock, but the spot market is still limited volatility. As the price of raw material calcium carbide rises due to the limitation of electricity, the support of cost side becomes stronger and stronger. It is expected that the short-term market will be stuck and it is difficult to distinguish between long and short term. The price of PVC mainly fluctuates in a small range.
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