ABS market fluctuates and falls

Price trend


Recently, the domestic ABS market has been fluctuating and spot prices have declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 2nd, the average price of ABS sample products was 10300 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.83% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the week.


Cause analysis


On the supply side, the high load situation in the ABS industry has continued this week, with overall fewer enterprise inspections. The weekend operating rate has been narrowed down to about 83%. The on-site spot supply continues to be abundant, with high pressure on the supply side. However, the overall inventory has been depleted due to the replenishment at the end of last month, but there is still limited support for the spot market, and manufacturers continue to lower their factory prices.


In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials this week was two drops and one rise. The raw material acrylonitrile market continued to decline. The raw material propylene market is weak, and the cost side is declining; Downstream demand is weak and transaction volume has decreased, resulting in poor support for ABS.


The domestic butadiene market price fell deeply this week. During the week, some maintenance equipment resumed and production increased. At the same time, imported cargo gradually arrived at the port, putting pressure on the market supply side. Some downstream industries saw a decrease in demand, which significantly dragged down the inventory pressure of butadiene suppliers. With the continuous decline of Sinopec prices, the domestic butadiene market rapidly declined.


It can be seen from the figure below that the price of styrene market stopped falling and rebounded this week. The advantage comes from the tight supply pattern of balance, but the weak international oil prices continue, with poor cost support. The trading volume in the Asian styrene US dollar market is light, and downstream demand remains strong. It is expected that the short-term increase in the styrene market may be limited.


In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average stocking enthusiasm, and the operating rate is generally at the off-season level. The manufacturer has a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with some restocking and stocking operations at the end of last month, but overall demand improvement is limited.


Future Market Forecast


This week, the upstream three materials of ABS fell and rose, providing poor support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant has started a high-level fine adjustment, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Although the pressure on on-site inventory has decreased, the demand side support is limited, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. This month, ABS has multiple enterprise maintenance plans and is expected to reduce the decline in ABS.