In April 2025, the upstream raw material market price trend of viscose staple fiber will decline, the cost side support will be weak, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream cotton yarn enterprises will fade, the demand side fatigue will be difficult to change, the inventory level of viscose staple fiber market will continue to increase, the low-priced supply in the market will continue to increase, and the market price of viscose staple fiber will be lowered.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 30th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from the previous month, with a monthly decline of 0.88%.
In terms of cost: During the month, the main raw material dissolution slurry market experienced a stepped decline, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali market and sulfuric acid market both entered a downward channel, and the cost center of gravity fell; The average production cost of viscose staple fibers has decreased.
Supply and demand: Some adhesive short fiber manufacturers have high inventory levels, and the operating load of their equipment has been reduced. The overall supply of the industry has significantly decreased, and the performance of the supply side is average; The demand in the terminal market has not shown any improvement, and the inventory of finished products in downstream yarn factories continues to accumulate, which slows down the consumption rate of raw materials. The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market equipment continues to decline, and prices are falling. During the month, yarn factories mainly consumed raw material inventory, but limited orders were placed in the end market. As orders were delivered one after another, some yarn companies had plans to reduce production or switch production, resulting in a gradual decrease in demand for adhesive short fibers. Good support from the demand side was difficult to find, and the demand side dragged down the market trend.
Future forecast
Cost side: There is an expectation of reduced supply in the downstream adhesive short fiber market, which may lead to a decrease in demand for dissolving pulp. Therefore, it is expected that the dissolving pulp market will lack favorable support next month, and prices will run weakly.
On the supply and demand side: Currently, most regions have insufficient production of adhesive short fiber equipment. If the inventory on site remains high, it is expected that the supply of adhesive short fiber in the market may still decrease next month; Some downstream factories plan to stop production for the May Day holiday. If terminal demand remains weak, the holiday period for yarn factories may be extended, and there is a possibility of further reduction in demand for adhesive short fibers.
Overall, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market may not change much, and the industry inventory level is relatively high. In addition, there is no sign of improvement in downstream market demand. Under multiple negative factors, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market prices will continue to be weak next month, with prices expected to be accepted at 12800-13400 yuan/ton.
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