1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market continued its upward trend from last week and continued to climb this week (7.7-11). As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4733 yuan/ton, up 1.7% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: This week, PVC spot market prices have risen. On the one hand, driven by the crude oil and futures markets, the spot market continues to climb. On the other hand, the market has shown an improvement in supply and demand, with PVC production rates remaining stable this week and maintaining previous levels. Demand has also shown a moderate rebound. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, the market has maintained a high trading volume recently, and the overall social inventory is in the stage of depletion. This week, many manufacturers have raised their factory prices, and the pressure on their port inventory is still acceptable.
On the cost side: This week, the price of calcium carbide in the market has remained stable and entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly increase or decrease of calcium carbide is zero. The current increase in PVC prices is not closely related to the cost side, but mainly comes from the favorable conditions of the futures market and supply and demand improvement. The increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and PVC prices have rebounded.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, there will be sufficient PVC supply, and the operating rate of manufacturers will remain at a high level. The inventory of enterprises is still generally high, and it needs to be continuously reduced in the later stage. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly driven by the improvement of market sentiment and the rise in crude oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, and the lack of sustained improvement in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.
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