The strengthening of oil prices has led to a rebound in commodity sentiment, with downstream demand stabilizing during the traditional peak season and PTA prices strengthening. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 23, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4467 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.16% from the previous trading day.
The decline in commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, coupled with the easing of market concerns about trade disputes, has led to an increase in international oil prices. On October 22nd, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.50 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $62.59 per barrel.
In terms of PTA, the supply side of Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton plant reduced its load to 80% on October 17th, and Yisheng New Materials resumed production of 3.6 million tons on October 14th. The overall operating rate of the industry is around 75%. The follow-up maintenance plans for Sichuan Energy Investment with 1 million yuan and INEOS with 1.1 million yuan in October, and Dushan Energy’s new device with 3 million yuan planned to be put into operation next week, will be closely monitored for actual implementation.
On the demand side, there is a fluctuation in the load of the polyester unit, but the overall change is not significant. The terminal weaving orders have recently improved due to the cold weather, with a temporary improvement in sentiment. However, the product differentiation is significant, and the overall demand is lower than the same period in previous years. The seasonal strengthening is highly limited, and the quality during peak seasons is insufficient. Most of them focus on preparing raw materials in the early stage of digestion, maintaining a strong demand for raw material procurement.
Business analysts believe that the PTA price trend is once again dominated by macro politics and commodity sentiment, with strong cost side support for crude oil prices. As the weather turns cold, the demand side is experiencing a structural recovery in domestic sales, and orders for autumn and winter are improving. Therefore, there is a sustained expectation of a rebound in the PTA market in the short term.
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